11/06/2025
Current Market Scenario β XAUUSD - 4H
Current Price: ~$3341
Price is testing a key resistance zone near $3345β3355
Confluence of:
Long-term descending trendline resistance
Horizontal supply zone from previous highs
Structure shows signs of forming a lower high on the 4H chart
Market is indecisive, awaiting breakout or rejection confirmation.
π» Bearish Scenario (Rejection at Resistance)
If price fails to break and close above $3355, likely bearish continuation
Expected sequence:
Rejection from $3345β3355
Pullback toward $3300
Further decline to the support zone at $3240β3200
Bearish confirmation trigger: Breakdown below $3320 with momentum
Key Support Zone: $3240β3200 (marked in pink).
πΊ Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above High)
If price breaks and closes above $3355β3360 with strong volume:
Indicates a breakout from descending trendline
Expected move:
Break and retest of $3355 area
Move higher toward $3400, and possibly $3450β3500
Bullish confirmation trigger: Strong candle close above $3355
Next resistance targets: $3400 β $3450 β $3500.
Trading Instructions & Risk Management
For short positions:
Entry: Near $3345β3355 on rejection
Stop-loss: Above $3355 (e.g., $3360)
Target: $3300 β $3240 β $3200
For long positions (only if breakout occurs):
Entry: After a confirmed breakout and retest of $3355
Stop-loss: Below $3340
Target: $3400 β $3450 β $3500
Risk Management:
Risk only 1β2% of your total capital per trade
Maintain a minimum 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio
Use confirmation candles (e.g., strong rejection or breakout with volume)
Never enter a trade without a stop-loss and clear plan.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/yUTkXINo-GOLD-EXPECTED-MOVES-XAUUSD-4H/