10/02/2026
Let me speak as a Motswana who reads the Budget, lives the economy, and wants this country to work.
This is Year 2 of a new government, and the 2026/2027 Budget is presented as the practical delivery of the President’s promise in the 2025 State of the Nation Address, “The Steady Path: Delivering on Our Promise.” The Finance Minister is clear: this is meant to be about action, not slogans, aligned to NDP 12 and the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP).
On direction, the diagnosis is largely correct. Botswana cannot rely on diamonds forever. Public spending has reached its limits. Productivity, private initiative, and diversification must carry future growth. That part of the speech is honest and necessary.
There are also welcome developments. Hiring temporary teachers brings immediate relief to schools and households. Acknowledging the collapse of the medical supply chain, rather than dismissing it, is important, especially with the proposed government to government arrangement to stabilise health supplies. Regarding MSMEs, the admission that loans and collateral-heavy models exclude talent is long overdue, and the proposed National Fund of Funds is grounded in evidence, not ideology.
But this is where the tension begins.
Tax hikes in a downturn: the quiet contradiction
The Budget proposes higher taxes and stronger revenue collection at a time when the economy is already under strain. This is the part many ordinary Batswana feel first, not in policy documents, but in daily life.
Households are stretched.
SMEs are operating on thin margins.
Youth unemployment remains high.
Yet the response, once again, is to raise revenue from the same base.
From an economist’s view, this is risky. Tax increases during a slowdown can suppress demand, slow business activity, and delay recovery. From an SME owner’s perspective, it feels like being asked to finance an adjustment while still waiting for growth to arrive. From a youth lens, it reinforces the sense that opportunity is deferred, while costs are immediate.
The Finance Minister speaks of fiscal prudence, but prudence is not only about balancing books, it is also about timing and burden-sharing.
Borrowing, spending, and mixed signals
The Budget acknowledges continued borrowing, justified as necessary to stabilise and transform the economy. Borrowing in itself is not the problem. Botswana has done it before, responsibly.
The concern is what borrowing is paired with.
If the government borrows while also increasing taxes, cutting household breathing space, and maintaining a costly state, the message becomes confused. Citizens are told the economy is fragile, yet they are asked to pay more, now, for benefits that are largely future-facing.
That is where trust starts to thin.
Big plans, limited capacity
The BETP is ambitious, 186 projects, over BWP 514 billion in projected investment, and more than 500,000 jobs by 2036. The NDP 12 vision of a diversified, inclusive economy is sound; we welcome it.
But ambition must meet reality.
Internal government capacity remains uneven. Procurement struggles, slow ex*****on, and coordination gaps persist. Even good ideas, if implemented slowly, lose credibility among people who need results now.
The National Fund of Funds is a strong concept, but with implementation only expected in 2027/2028, many entrepreneurs will not survive to see it.
Jobs and trust: the real scoreboard
Everything in this Budget ultimately comes down to jobs and trust.
Jobs must appear sooner, not just in long-term projections. Trust must be rebuilt not through moral promises alone, but through visible accountability, including the promised forensic audits and real consequences where wrongdoing is found.
The Vice President’s pledge not to “rob a single coin” is powerful. But citizens will judge this government less by scripture and more by evidence.
Where to now?
This Budget is not empty. It shows a bit of seriousness in one corner of the government enclave and a genuine attempt to change course.
But it also asks citizens to pay more during a downturn, trust more in times of uncertainty, and wait longer during hardship.
That is a hard sell, even for a government with good intentions.
If Year 2 does not start translating policy into lived improvement, especially on jobs, cost of living, and fairness, the steady path risks feeling like a long road walked alone.
Botswana doesn’t need perfection.
It needs visible progress, shared sacrifice, and honest pacing.