08/29/2026
An 18-month blackout could devastate the United States.
Former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission chair Jon Wellinghoff has warned that a coordinated attack on nine critical substations across the country’s three major grid regions could potentially cause a nationwide power failure.
The 18-month estimate is not a prediction, and experts disagree about how easily such a collapse could happen. But the physical vulnerabilities behind the warning are real.
In April 2013, attackers opened fire on California’s Metcalf transmission substation near San Jose. In approximately 19 minutes, they fired more than 100 rounds and damaged 17 transformers.
Grid operators rerouted electricity and prevented a major blackout, but restoring the facility took 27 days. No one has been charged in the attack.
The larger concern is what would happen if several major substations were disabled simultaneously.
Large power transformers are essential for moving electricity across long distances. Unlike the smaller transformers mounted on neighborhood utility poles, these machines can weigh more than 500,000 pounds (227 metric tons), cost millions of dollars, and are often custom-built for a particular location.
They are also difficult to replace quickly.
The U.S. Department of Energy says lead times for large transformers used at substations and power plants have grown to between three and four years under normal ordering conditions. A major emergency affecting several regions could place even greater pressure on manufacturers, transportation networks, and available spare equipment.
The federal government introduced stronger physical-security requirements following the Metcalf attack, and utilities have invested in barriers, surveillance, backup systems, and spare transformers. However, aging equipment and lengthy manufacturing delays remain serious concerns.
An extended blackout would affect far more than household lights. Water treatment, communications, hospitals, refrigeration, fuel distribution, and transportation all depend on reliable electricity.
Learn more:
“The Blackout That Could Devastate America." The New York Times