Claws&Horns, Limassol, Cyprus (2026)

28/05/2021

USD is strengthening against its main competitors – JPY, EUR, and GBP.

Comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remain in the spotlight of investors. Yesterday, she spoke in the House of Representatives of the American Congress and reaffirmed that the rise in inflation observed now was a temporary phenomenon, and it could last from a few more months until the end of this year. She also noted that the new budget for the 2022 fiscal year, being developed by the administration of President Joe Biden and containing significant costs for economic recovery, could seriously increase public debt but will not lead to further inflation. Today, the head of the country must submit a plan for additional budgetary expenditures for the next five years. They can be up to $5T. In part, they will have to be covered by an additional $3.6T in profits but the public debt will still be increased by $1.4T. At the same time, the inflation rate for the long term is expected to be 2.3%. Budget expenditures will be directed to the development of infrastructure, environmentally friendly technologies, as well as to support families.

26/05/2021

The quotes are in a correctional trend, and are currently trading at $3260 per share. The position of the issuer is negatively affected by the growing litigation.

Yesterday, it became known that the Attorney General of Washington, Carl Racine, filed a lawsuit against Amazon.com, noting that its actions prevent service partners from selling their products on third-party platforms at a lower cost. If the "agreement" is not met, the e-commerce giant imposes serious sanctions against such companies and thereby forces them to sell their goods without discount. Such a policy, according to the prosecutor, leads to a constant increase in prices for the end consumer, which is a violation of US antitrust laws.

It is worth noting that the management of Amazon.com rejects all the charges, emphasizing that sellers themselves regulate the pricing policy on their sites.

The litigation is likely to lead to a decrease in the stock quotes to the area of 3150.0 and 3100.0.

25/05/2021

Today, oil quotes made a moderate attempt to decline.

Generally, the market situation remains positive, despite the price correction. US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said over the weekend that there is no question of lifting sanctions on Iran so far, despite progress in negotiations. Thus, the entry of Iranian oil into the market may be postponed for an indefinite future. In the evening, investors are waiting for the weekly API report on the US crude oil reserves. The last time they rose by 0.620 million barrels. The continuation of this trend may put pressure on prices.

24/05/2021

Last week, the pair USD/JPY dropped below the midline of Bollinger Bands. The breakdown of 108.59, coinciding with Murrey [3/8], will give the prospect of a further decline to 107.81 and 107.03. The level of 109.37 is still the key for the "bulls". Its breakout will provide further growth to 110.15 and 110.93. Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal: Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone, and Stochastic is pointing downwards.

The continuation of a decline is more likely, but one cannot exclude the resumption of growth after the breakout of 109.37.

20/05/2021

The shares of Nvidia Corp., the American giant in the development of video GPUs, move within a corrective trend, being around $580 per share.

At the beginning of the week, the exact date of the release of the new flagship video cards GeForce RTX 3080 Ti and GeForce RTX 3070 Ti, with a volume of 12 and 8 GB of video memory, appeared on the company's website. The release will take place on May 31, and the estimated price of new products can be about $2K.

Earlier, it became known that new releases of the Nvidia GeForce 3080, 3070, and 3060 Ti graphics cards, which are super popular with Ethereum miners, will be equipped with a reduced hash rate specifically to make the equipment unprofitable for mining cryptocurrency. At the same time, especially for miners, the company has developed a line of CMP chips, the cost of which significantly exceeds the cost of gaming video cards. However, miners prefer cheap, high-hash gaming graphics cards, so new chips remain unclaimed. To balance the sales revenue, the corporation took this step.

Support and resistance

Globally, a sideways channel is formed, within which the price decreases towards the support line. Technical indicators are in a sell state: the range of fluctuations of the EMA of the Alligator indicator is directed downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is below the zero level.

Resistance levels: 584.00, 647.00.
Support levels: 542.00, 490.00.

Trading tips

After decline or consolidation below the support level of 542.00, sell positions with the target at 490.00 are relevant. Stop loss is 570.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

After growth or consolidation above the local resistance level of 584.00, buy positions with the target at 647.00 will be relevant. Stop loss is 530.00, below the resistance level.

19/05/2021

Gold quotes are in a stable uptrend and are currently trading at $1880 per ounce.

Recently, a large number of fundamental factors speak in favor of the metals market. The main one is a significant increase in demand: according to the publication of the Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), in March, mining increased by 21.3%, platinum ore by 68.6%, and gold – by 10.5%. Also this week, there was a local factor of strengthening: China, which accounts for a significant share of mining, again tightened its legislation on cryptocurrencies. According to the statement of the People's Bank of China, digital tokens are prohibited from using for payments for goods and services. This announcement provoked a significant collapse in the digital asset market, and BTC dropped below the key level of $ 40,000 Investors have recently chosen cryptocurrency as a “safe haven” asset, reducing their portfolios in gold, but now the flow of capital has reversed.

A sharp drop in cryptocurrency quotes is an undoubted advantage for gold, which will most likely lead to continued growth and reaching the levels of 1890.0 and 1940.0.

18/05/2021

Today traders will pay attention to the following news of the economic calendar:

Gross Domestic Product. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

At 01:50 (GMT+2), preliminary data on Japan's Q1 GDP will be released. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. It takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. The Japanese economy is expected to contract by 1.2% QoQ and by 4.6% YoY. The forecast implementation may put pressure on the yen.

RBA Meeting Minutes. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

At 03:30 (GMT+2), the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be published, which may contain hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. In early May, the regulator left the rate unchanged at 0.10% and promised to maintain the same monetary policy until 2024, even if the Australian economy continues to grow.

Employment Change. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

At 08:00 (GMT+2) in the UK, employment data for March (3M/3M) will be published. This indicator records changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. Employment is expected to decline by another 150K, and this will be the tenth consecutive decline in the indicator. The forecast implementation may put pressure on the pound.

Gross Domestic Product. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

At 11:00 (GMT+2), preliminary data on the Q1 GDP of the EU countries will be released. It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. It takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. The European economy is expected to contract by 0.6% QoQ and by 1.8% YoY. The forecast implementation may put pressure on the euro.

Building Permits. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the US, data on the number of building permits issued for April will be published. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications issued by the US government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the construction sector. It is expected that for April the figure will grow from 1.759M to 1.773M, which may support the US dollar.

17/05/2021

BTC continues declining and today reached three-month lows.

BTC's position was pressured by a statement from the head of Tesla Inc. Elon Musk on the company's decision not to accept the coin as payment, since cryptocurrency mining causes serious harm to the environment.

Musk promised not to sell the remaining Bitcoin assets of Tesla Inc., but then hinted on Twitter that they have already been sold or will be sold in the near future, which caused new coin sales and a flurry of criticism from the crypto community saying that the interest of Tesla Inc. to BTC was speculative. After acquiring the first cryptocurrency, Musk tried to popularize it, supporting the rise in prices. Then the tokens were sold, allowing the company to increase profits, but causing significant damage to the entire cryptocurrency market, as it shattered investor confidence in digital assets. A number of them now state that cryptocurrencies cannot yet be a source of capital preservation, since they are influenced by the comments of one person.

14/05/2021

The total market capitalization during the week fell to $2.383T. The share of BTC in the market decreased to 40.97%.

The prices of leading cryptocurrency assets have weakened since the beginning of the week but the real blow to the market was delivered on Thursday by the head of Tesla Inc. Elon Musk. He stated that the company will no longer accept BTC as payment for its cars since cryptocurrency mining is causing serious harm to the environment. Musk noted that he is concerned about the growing consumption of fossil fuels for BTC mining and transaction processors, especially coal, which produces the most harmful emissions when used. However, Musk said that cryptocurrencies were a good idea and the company would resume using them as soon as mining becomes more environmentally friendly. This solution drew a lot of criticism in the cryptocurrency community. First of all, Musk was accused of haste and thoughtlessness of the decision. Several experts associated it with the desire to obtain loans for the production of electricity from renewable sources, which are currently issued by the administration of US President Joe Biden. Many considered the decision hypocritical since the company's management could not have been unaware of the problems of mining BTC when they allowed it to be used as a means of payment. Also, the very production of batteries for electric cars and space rockets is not environmentally friendly.

An additional factor of pressure on the market was the investigation by the Department of Justice and the US Internal Revenue Service of the activities of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance, which was reported by Bloomberg sources. The departments believe that the exchange could evade taxes or participate in money laundering. Investors are not encouraged by the reports that the Reserve Bank of India is exerting unofficial pressure on the country's banks, seeking to end their cooperation with cryptocurrency exchanges and traders. Officially, such cooperation is now not prohibited but the regulator is doing everything to limit it.

13/05/2021

Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth upward wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the fourth wave 4 of (5). Now, the development of the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (5) has started, within which the wave i of 5 has formed, and a local correction has developed as the wave ii of 5. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 299.84–318.84. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 210.27.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 210.27 with the targets at 299.84–318.84. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 210.27 will let the price go down to the levels of 190.00–170.00.

12/05/2021

Shares of Pfizer Inc. ( ) have recently been in an uptrend and currently stand at 39.00.

The media reported yesterday that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the use of Pfizer's drug to vaccinate children between the ages of 12 and 15. Reportedly, this age group will begin to vaccinate as early as Thursday. Thus, the Pfizer drug became the first approved for use in the USA for the prevention of coronavirus in children.

Also yesterday, the indicators of the effectiveness of the Pfizer drug in countering the new strains of coronavirus were finally determined. According to the results of the drug test in Qatar, 72–75% of the subjects infected with the South African strain developed immunity. Immunity against the British strain occurred in 87–89% of people. According to these data, the vaccine is the most effective of all that are approved for use in the USA.

As a result, the latest news for the company can be considered positive, which is likely to lead to continued growth in quotes and reaching the levels of 40.50 and 42.00.

11/05/2021

Today, the yen is weakening against the euro but is strengthening against the pound and the US dollar.

Household Expenditure Index March data released today were positive. MoM, it accelerated growth from 2.4% to 7.2%, and YoY, it grew by 6.2% after reducing by 6.6% a month earlier. At the same time, the mood of the Bank of Japan remains alarming. A summary of the views of the regulator published today says that there is no complete confidence in the economic recovery, since the development of the pandemic continues to negatively affect domestic consumption. There's a gap between manufacturers who are benefiting from robust growth in global demand and retailers who are struggling with quarantine restrictions.

Claws&Horns