Velar Advisory

17/06/2025

⚠️ Dubai airport disruption alert. 5 key warnings for travellers in the Gulf.

Watch, follow, and discover more trending content.

16/06/2025

Spain, Italy, and Portugal are pushing back hard on mass tourism.

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14/06/2025

🚨 Here are all the countries the UK Foreign Office says you should NOT travel to in 2025.

⚠️ These destinations carry a “Do Not Travel” advisory — due to war, terrorism, instability or state collapse.

🟥 Listed as “Do Not Travel”:
• 🇦🇫 Afghanistan
• 🇸🇩 Sudan
• 🇸🇾 Syria
• 🇾🇪 Yemen
• 🇸🇴 Somalia
• 🇱🇾 Libya
• 🇲🇱 Mali
• 🇸🇸 South Sudan
• 🇨🇩 DR Congo (eastern regions)
• 🇷🇺 Russia (bordering Ukraine)
• 🇮🇷 Iran (border areas & unrest zones)
• 🇮🇱 Israel & Palestinian Territories (certain areas)
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine (entire country)

✈️ What this means:
✔️ Travel insurance is often invalidated
✔️ Embassies may have limited ability to help
✔️ Companies operating in these regions should review staffing, security & evacuation plans

📡 Velar Advisory monitors red zone risk 24/7.
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12/06/2025

🚨Global Travel Risk Alert – 2025 Escalation Expands

The Australian government has issued a significant 2025 travel alert upgrade, citing increased geopolitical volatility, protest activity, and potential terror-linked threats in key international hubs.

What makes this alert different?
It’s now backed by an unusually coordinated response.

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🌍 Countries aligning with Australia’s 2025 alert level include:
• 🇺🇸 United States
• 🇨🇦 Canada
• 🇯🇵 Japan
• 🇩🇪 Germany
• 🇮🇹 Italy
• 🇪🇸 Spain
• 🇮🇸 Iceland
…and others

This wave of risk advisory updates suggests a growing consensus around elevated threats to travellers — particularly in regions where political unrest, soft-target risks, or diplomatic tensions are intensifying.

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✈️ Velar Advisory Take – What It Means for Business Travel
• Risk environment is tightening: Executives and mobile teams should anticipate increased disruption, visa delays, and sudden alert changes
• Protest activity and soft-target threats may continue to drive alerts in both developed and emerging markets
• Regional travel policies (e.g. route planning, ground transport, hotel security) may need reassessment through Q3 and Q4

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📡 Velar Advisory continues to monitor cross-border threat alignment and embassy-level alerts in real time.

For bespoke destination briefings, corporate risk dashboards, or tailored OSINT reports:
📩 Email: [email protected]

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🔖

07/06/2025

https://lnkd.in/drxKyBxr

Source: another page…..still worth a watch

05/06/2025

🇹🇷 Turkey Delivers T129 ATAK Helicopters to Somalia: Strategic Implications for East Africa 

In a significant development, Turkey has delivered three T129 ATAK attack helicopters to Somalia, marking a deepening of military ties between the two nations. The T129 ATAK, a twin-engine, multi-role attack helicopter developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries in partnership with Leonardo S.p.A., is designed for armed reconnaissance and attack missions in challenging environments. 

Key Points:
• Enhanced Counterinsurgency Capabilities: The addition of T129 helicopters bolsters Somalia’s efforts against insurgent groups like al-Shabaab, providing advanced aerial support in difficult terrains.
• Strengthened Bilateral Relations: This delivery underscores Turkey’s commitment to supporting Somalia’s security infrastructure, reflecting a broader strategy of expanding influence in East Africa.
• Regional Security Dynamics: Turkey’s military support to Somalia may influence the balance of power in the Horn of Africa, prompting reactions from other regional actors invested in Somalia’s stability.

Analysis:

The deployment of T129 ATAK helicopters to Somalia signifies a notable shift in the region’s security landscape. For Somalia, it represents a step forward in building a more capable and responsive military force. For Turkey, it’s a strategic move to cement its role as a key security partner in East Africa.

However, this development may also lead to increased competition among foreign powers in the region, each seeking to assert their influence. The enhanced military capabilities could deter insurgent activities but may also escalate tensions if not managed within a comprehensive security framework.

As Somalia integrates these helicopters into its operations, the focus should remain on ensuring their effective use in promoting long-term stability and peace in the region.

Ankara also handed utility helicopters to Somali Navy as fight against al-Shabab intensifies

04/06/2025

🗞️ Nigeria Morning Brief
📅 4 June 2025 | 06:45

Delivered by the Nigeria Desk at Velar Advisory

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🔺 Key Developments – Last 12 Hours

1. Rafah-style Civilian Casualty Event Alleged in Borno
• Reports from Guzamala LGA claim 9 civilians were killed after an IED planted by suspected Boko Haram militants struck a civilian vehicle late yesterday evening.
• This follows a recent string of asymmetric attacks across Borno and Yobe targeting aid convoys, local leaders, and IDP return routes.

2. Orji Kalu Alleges Political Sponsorship of Boko Haram
• Former Senate Chief Whip Orji Uzor Kalu publicly claimed that some Nigerian politicians are leveraging Boko Haram to “fight the Tinubu administration.”
• The remarks have sparked renewed debate over the weaponisation of insurgency for political ends ahead of 2027.

3. INSO Suspension Ripple Effects
• Humanitarian groups continue to voice concern over the shutdown of the International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO), suspended last week by the federal government.
• The absence of INSO’s safety coordination has already disrupted several cross-border food drops into Borno and Adamawa.

4. Abuja Diplomacy – ECOWAS Delegation Arrives
• An ECOWAS mission led by Nigerien diplomats arrived in Abuja overnight to discuss regional border security and currency alignment.
• While symbolic, the meeting signals ECOWAS’ push to reassert influence amid coups, jihadist spread, and rising West African militarisation.

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📊 Velar Advisory Analysis – What This Means for the Region

🔍 1. Northern Nigeria remains geopolitically fluid.
The Guzamala IED incident underscores the continued operational reach of Boko Haram factions. If political actors are indeed linked to insurgent resurgence, it weakens the state’s monopoly on violence and accelerates destabilisation across the Lake Chad Basin.

🔍 2. Humanitarian corridors are narrowing.
The removal of INSO erodes visibility and coordination among INGOs. Expect further disruptions in aid access, riskier field logistics, and increased NGO withdrawal from rural Borno, Gwoza, and Damboa.

🔍 3. Regional fallout looms.
As Nigeria’s internal cohesion is strained, ECOWAS states look both inward and eastward. Security vacuums could see Niger and Chad asserting harder borders, reducing Nigeria’s diplomatic leverage in joint counterinsurgency efforts.

🔍 4. Risk of insurgency becoming a political tool.
If allegations of elite-backed terror gain traction, expect growing calls for judicial inquiry, and potentially retaliatory violence in areas seen as political strongholds. For business and NGO operators, this raises risk exposure in locations once deemed “low flashpoint”.

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📩 [email protected]

02/06/2025

🇺🇦 Ukraine Conflict Update – Day 1,193 (June 1, 2025)

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 1,193rd day, fresh developments on the ground and in the diplomatic sphere underline the ongoing instability in the region.

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🔥 Key Developments:
• Bryansk Train Derailment: Russia blames Ukrainian sabotage for a derailment in Bryansk, killing 7 and injuring 30.
• Civilians Targeted: Russian strikes killed a child in Zaporizhia and a man in Kherson.
• Mass Drone Barrage: Russia launched 109 drones and 5 missiles; Ukraine downed 42.
• Territory Claims: Russia claimed advances in Sumy and Donetsk regions.
• Peace Talk Doubts: President Zelenskyy cast doubt on Russia’s sincerity ahead of proposed talks in Istanbul.
• China Criticises NATO Rhetoric: Beijing condemned French comments comparing Ukraine’s defence to Taiwan’s security.

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🛡️ Velar Advisory Travel Risk & Threat Assessment – Ukraine (June 2025)

📍 Travel Advisory Overview:
• UK FCDO: Advises against all travel to most of Ukraine, including Kyiv and frontline regions. Limited exceptions in far western areas under “essential travel only.”
• US State Department: Level 4 – Do Not Travel, warning of high risk from missile strikes, drone attacks, and potential for escalation without warning.

🚨 Threat State Specifics:
• Airstrikes Remain Widespread: Even in western cities like Lviv, missile and drone warnings are common.
• Unexploded Ordnance: Significant risk for road users, emergency responders, and aid groups in formerly occupied zones.
• Cyber Threats & Infrastructure Attacks: Energy grids and communication systems remain at elevated risk.

🎯 Velar Advisory Insight:
For organisations with operational interests, donor funding, media presence, or humanitarian work in Ukraine, real-time tracking, contingency planning, and coordination with embassy or third-party security providers is essential.

📩 For access to our Ukraine Geo-Risk Dashboard, active conflict route maps, or custom risk briefings:
📧 [email protected]

01/06/2025

🚨 Boko Haram IED Attack Claims 9 Lives in Borno State

On May 30, 2025, nine civilians were killed when their vehicle struck an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted by Boko Haram militants near Mairari village, Guzamala LGA, in Borno State, northeast Nigeria. The victims were travelling in a commercial vehicle en route to a nearby market when the blast occurred.

🛡️ Velar Advisory Analysis:

This latest incident reaffirms Boko Haram’s continued use of asymmetric tactics—particularly in rural, lightly patrolled areas of Borno. It also highlights the difficulty of securing non-military transport routes, especially for civilians and aid convoys.

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📍 Threat State & Travel Risk Context:

Borno remains under heightened travel advisories by multiple foreign governments. The UK Foreign Office and U.S. Department of State both advise against all travel to the northeast states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and parts of Gombe due to terrorism, IED attacks, and ongoing insurgent activity.

Travel risk in the region is considered severe, with threats ranging from:
• IEDs and roadside ambushes
• Kidnapping of civilians and NGO staff
• Targeted attacks on markets and transport hubs

Movement in this region should be limited to essential operations only, with military es**rt and pre-movement route assessments.

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🧭 For updated Nigeria threat maps, embassy tracker summaries, and subscriber access to our Geo-Risk Dashboard, contact:
📩 [email protected]



🔗 Read full article – Daily Trust

At least nine passengers have been killed by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) planted by Boko Haram terrorists at Mairari village in Guzamala Local Government Area (LGA) of Borno State. Mairari village is located about 18km from Monguno LGA and 119km away from Maiduguri, the Borno state capital.....

01/06/2025

🛡️ Lagos Travel Risk Update – June 2025

Lagos remains Nigeria’s commercial and diplomatic hub, but travelers should remain vigilant due to ongoing security challenges:

⚠️ Current Threat Environment
• Crime: Violent crime, including armed robbery, carjacking, and kidnapping, is prevalent. Criminal groups may target individuals perceived as wealthy. 
• Terrorism: Terrorist groups continue to plot attacks in Nigeria. Potential targets include public places frequented by Westerners. 
• Civil Unrest: Demonstrations can occur with little warning and may escalate into violence. Security forces may respond with force. 

🔄 Recent Changes

As of March 19, 2025, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) updated its travel advice to include information about a State of Emergency declared in Rivers State, South-South Nigeria. 

📌 Velar Advisory Insight

While Lagos is not currently under specific travel restrictions, the city’s security situation requires continuous monitoring. Travelers should:
• Maintain a low profile and vary routines.
• Avoid traveling after dark.
• Stay informed through reliable news sources and official advisories.

For detailed threat assessments and tailored security briefings, contact Velar Advisory at [email protected].

01/06/2025

🛡️ Tanzania Travel Risk Update – June 2025

While Tanzania remains a popular destination for tourism and regional investment, several travel advisories remain in place:

🔺 The UK Foreign Office advises against all but essential travel within 20km of the Cabo Delgado border (Mozambique), due to the risk of cross-border militant activity linked to Islamist groups.

⚠️ Broader national caution is advised due to:
• Opportunistic crime in urban centres
• Heightened risk of terrorism in public spaces
• Official warnings for LGBTQ+ travellers, with reports of discrimination and targeting

🎯 Velar Advisory Insight:
Tanzania’s domestic stability remains relatively intact, but the strategic alignment with authoritarian allies (notably China, Russia, and North Korea) highlights a geopolitical drift that may shift diplomatic posture and internal security policies over the next election cycle.

💼 Those operating in-country—whether NGOs, investors, or expatriates—should maintain low visibility, monitor border zone activity, and regularly assess embassy-level guidance.

📩 For regional threat briefings or subscription access to our Africa Watch service: [email protected]

01/06/2025

🌍 East Africa Update - Tanzania’s Ruling Party Receives Global Endorsements Amid New Election Launch

On May 30, 2025, Tanzania’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), launched its new 2025–2030 election manifesto during a congress marked by strong international political solidarity. Attending parties included governments from across Eastern and Southern Africa (e.g. Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Africa) and international communist and socialist parties such as the CCP (China), PCC (Cuba), WPK (North Korea), and CPRF (Russia).

🔗 Notably, a senior Chinese Communist Party representative highlighted:
• Ongoing high-level party exchanges with CCM
• The training of 200 Tanzanian political cadres annually in China
• Continued support in countering foreign interference and advancing sovereign development

Tanzania’s President and CCM Chair, Samia Suluhu Hassan, acknowledged the tangible impact of Chinese political training on the party’s evolution and domestic governance reform.

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📊 Velar Advisory Analysis:

This public alignment reflects an increasingly multi-polar influence dynamic in East Africa, where traditional Western diplomatic leverage is being balanced by state-party ties with China, Russia, and Cuba.

🇹🇿 For Tanzania:
• Expect a continuation of state-led infrastructure initiatives underpinned by Chinese capital and strategy.
• This growing CCP-CCM nexus may complicate foreign investment dynamics, particularly for Western or multilateral donors.

🌐 For observers:
• Monitor shifts in diplomatic posturing, voting patterns at the African Union and UN, and regional security collaborations influenced by this ideological bloc.

🛡️ At Velar Advisory, we provide discreet, real-time geopolitical and threat insights across Sub-Saharan Africa for professionals operating in sensitive environments.

🔗 Learn more or request a briefing:
📩 [email protected]

The attendance and messages of the three parties outline CCM’s hedging of international support ahead of the 2025 polls