https://www.defsecanalytics.org/

DefSec Analytics Africa Limited, GA-056-1995, Kumasi (2026)

16/05/2025

Join us in our free virtual security conference as we discuss and digest issues concerning Africa's porous borders and possible solutions.

See all necessary information below for registration. Look forward to seeing you.

25/08/2023

Highly promising destination for your money

Namibia lies along the southwestern coast of Africa, and is bordered by Angola in the north, Zambia and Zimbabwe in the northeast, Botswana to the east, South Africa in the south, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west. It occupies an area of 824290 sq km .

The country is divided into three topographical regions, thus the coastal desert region, which includes the Namib Desert, the inland plateau region, which is a continuation of the South African Plateau and stretches from the southern to the northern border and covers more than half of the country. The dune- and grass-covered Kalahari Desert to the east and south of the inland plateau region.

Namibia is a constitutional multi-party democracy in Southern Africa. Albeit a multi-party democracy, its ruling party South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) has ruled since the country's independence in 1990.

Namibia is classified as an upper middle-income economy. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Namibia was worth 12.61 billion US dollars in 2022, according to official data from the World Bank. Its economy is based on income from the export of primary raw materials in some important sectors, such as minerals, especially diamonds, livestock, and fish. Recently, the country has discovered a significant deposit of hydrocarbons offshore.

Despite Namibia’s small domestic market, high transport costs, high energy
prices, and limited access to skilled labor, the World Bank reports that Namibia remains attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI) due to its political stability and favorable macro-economic environment.

Foreign direct investment is present in uranium, diamond, zinc and copper mining, banking, oil exploration, and fisheries sectors, with 50 percent of foreign exchange earnings coming from mining.

Security Issues:
Crime rates in Namibia are lower than those in neighboring South Africa and
Angola but have been on a constant rise in both urban centers and rural areas in recent years. These crimes occur most frequently at night, though the threat also exists during daylight hours. Vehicular crime is also a threat in many areas.

Despite a history of low-level terrorist-style activity by the Caprivi Liberation
Army (CLA) separatist group in the late 1990s and spillover from the long-running civil war in Angola until the early 2000s, Namibia has not faced any significant conflict risks in recent years. The threat from terrorism is also assessed as being low, with no domestic or transnational terrorist groups known to operate in the country.

Verdict:
After independence, Namibia has been one of the most stable countries in Africa. With the right policies and investment, the country's vast resources could make it immensely consequential in the continent. Risk is significantly low.

21/08/2023

So much potential that requires more openness to flourish

Eritrea, a small African nation located in the Horn of Africa, is prominent for its diverse culture, and spectacular landscapes. Eritrea is bordered to the south by Ethiopia and Djibouti, Sudan to the west, and the Red Sea to the east. Its strategic location along the Red Sea coast positions it as a gateway for maritime trade.

According to the AFDB, its GDP is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2024. The economy of Eritrea is primarily based on agriculture, accounting for about 20% of its GDP and with approximately 80% of its populace employed in this sector.

Major crops grown in Eritrea include sorghum, millet, barley, and wheat. However, due to limited arable land and water resources, agricultural production remains largely subsistence-oriented. In recent years, mining has emerged as one of the main sectors contributing to Eritrea's economy. The country possesses significant gold, copper, zinc, and potash deposits.

Various international companies have invested in Eritrean mines, increasing government revenues through taxation and royalties. Additionally, the tourism sector has shown potential for growth as well as the fisheries industry due to the extensive coastline stretching along the Red Sea.

Despite these positive prospects, Eritrea faces challenges such as limited infrastructure and restrictive government policies that hinder private sector development and overall economic growth.

Security Issues:
Eritrea is bedeviled with numerous security challenges ranging from internal conflicts to external geopolitical dynamics. Internally, the country has struggled with political repression and human rights abuses, leading to mass migrations and regional instability.

According to Human Rights Watch, unlawful, prolonged, and abusive detention, forced conscriptions and forced labor persists in Eritrea. Additionally, Eritrea's strained relations with neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Djibouti have resulted in border disputes and intermittent armed conflicts further jeopardizing regional security.

Eritrea’s military presence in the Tigrayan region of Ethiopia could jeopardize the fragile peace in Ethiopia. Furthermore, Eritrea's strategic location makes it vulnerable to transnational threats such as terrorism, piracy, and human trafficking.

Verdict:
Eritrea needs a new direction one that is built on the rule of law and respect for human rights. With more political openness and independent institutions, the country’s vast resources would attract the needed foreign direct investment (FDI). Risk is significantly high.

Below: Downtown Asmara, Eritrea.

21/08/2023

Story by Godfred M. Zina (Junior Associate, DefSEC)

DefSEC Analytics Africa officially launched its operations on Tuesday August 15, 2023, in a move set to strengthen security, enhance investment opportunities, and foster seamless international cooperation in Africa. The consulting agency is poised to become a beacon of reliable information, offering expert assessments and insights into security, investment, trade, communication among others.

The official launch of DefSEC Analytics Africa comes five months after the company obtained certification under the tried and tested commercial laws of the Republic of Ghana. Prior to this launch, Junior Associates of the company underwent intensive one-month training on regional security issues with a network of agents recruited across the continent who would be trained and integrated into the organization.

DefSEC Analytics Africa sets out to fill a crucial gap in the market by offering meticulously researched and factual information to a diverse clientele, including companies, Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), International Governmental Organisations (IGOs), governments, and agencies looking to operate within the continent. The launch of this pioneering company is expected to significantly elevate the standards of strategic decision-making and policy formulation across the African region.

With an exceptional focus on precision and depth, DefSEC Analytics Africa aims to be a trusted partner for businesses and organisations navigating the complex landscape of Africa's security and business environments. The company's team of seasoned experts brings a wealth of experience in areas such as political science, security analysis, economics and international relations. This multidisciplinary approach ensures that clients receive a holistic and well-rounded perspective on the matters at hand.

The Founder and CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, Fidel Amakye Owusu said, the objective of the company is to empower its clients "At DefSEC Analytics Africa, our primary objective is to empower our clients with accurate and actionable insights that will enable them to make informed decisions,"
He further indicated that, "Africa is a continent of immense potential and opportunity, but also one that presents unique challenges. By providing rigorous analysis and assessments, we aim to contribute to the sustainable development and growth of Africa's economy and security landscape."

The company's comprehensive range of services includes security risk assessments, market entry strategies, trade analysis, and due diligence reports. These offerings are tailor-made to assist clients in assessing risks and opportunities, devising effective strategies, and ensuring compliance with local regulations and international standards. DefSEC Analytics Africa is committed to fostering transparency and accountability across all its operations, thereby enhancing the overall business environment in Africa.

As Africa continues to attract investments from various corners of the world, DefSEC Analytics Africa's launch comes at a critical juncture. Its role in bridging the information gap and fostering a better understanding of the region is expected to not only facilitate smoother business operations but also contribute to regional stability and sustainable growth.

The launch of DefSEC Analytics Africa marks a significant step towards establishing a more secure, prosperous, and cooperative Africa. As the company begins its journey, it is poised to become an instrumental partner for stakeholders seeking to navigate the continent's evolving challenges and opportunities.

30/07/2023

Ethiopia: diversifying for investment.

Ethiopia is a formidable power in the Horn of Africa and Africa. It is a country with a rich cultural heritage.

Ethiopia has the largest landlocked economy in Africa and the largest population in the Horn. It shares borders with a total of 6 countries namely Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Kenya, and Djibouti making it susceptible and vulnerable to threats emanating from these countries.

Undoubtedly, Ethiopia is one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies with a GDP of $126 billion which is fueled by a flourishing agricultural and manufacturing sector. This is projected to grow 5.8% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024. It is unsurprising that it is making overtures at joining the BRICS.

Ethiopia’s exports are almost entirely agricultural. Like most African countries, there is little or no value added. With a burgeoning middle class with a voracious appetite for processed goods, there is a huge opportunity for processing industries. Coffee is the primary foreign-exchange earner with annual revenue nearing $1 billion. Other exported products include khat, hides and skins, and oilseeds.

Ethiopia has enormous natural resources such as gypsum, diatomite, lithium, hydrocarbons, graphite, gold, and potash which can be utilized to bring prosperity. Studies reveal that the Ogaden Basin holds 7 trillion Cubic Feet (7TCF) of natural gas. More importantly, potash from Ethiopia can be a game changer as far as fertilizer production is concerned. With Russia and Ukraine still at war, there is a lacuna in the supply of fertilizers around the world.

With nine UNESCO world heritage sites as of August 2021, Ethiopia is best placed to be a hub of tourism in Africa. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) Tourism in Ethiopia grew by 48.6% in 2018, the largest of any country in the world raking in $3.55 billion. However, these gains have been scuttled by COVID-19 and insecurity in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, recovery is on the horizon.

Security issues:
Ethiopia indeed faced external threats like terrorism, the proliferation of arms, and spillover effects of neighboring country conflict and internal threats issues such as poverty, famine and periodic drought, violent conflicts, civil unrest, crime, communications disruptions, and kidnapping in border areas. Tourists are encouraged to stay away from the Afar region, Amhara region, and Ethiopia-Somali border—where ISIS affiliates are active.

Verdict:
Ethiopia needs to chart a new path that enhances inclusion and cooperation. Also, preventive diplomacy with an effective early warning should be adopted to quell intra-regional conflict. Human security issues should be a priority to restore trust. With a young and vibrant population coupled with enormous natural resources, Ethiopia provides a profitable market for investors.

17/07/2023

Gabon: naturally endowed and open to investment albeit with long-term political risk.

Gabon is geographically located in Central Africa on the Atlantic Coast. It shares a border with Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea in the north; and the Republic of Congo in the south and east. The Atlantic Ocean lies
to the west.

Gabon is a well-resourced country considering its relatively small population. Its natural resources include oil and gas, manganese, diamonds and deposits of high-quality iron ore. The most conspicuous resource while flying over the country is its rich forests.

For many years, timber from Gabon’s tropical forest that was felled and floated down some rivers provided revenue to the state. This, however, became less important after the discovery of oil.

Developed in the 1960s, the oil industry increased the revenue of the Central African country. This made the country pay less attention to other sectors like agriculture that employed a significant proportion of the population. The “Dutch disease” had affected it.

Despite the huge revenues and an increase in the GDP per capita of the country, poverty remains prevalent as corruption does not allow equitable distribution of resources.

Some infrastructural development, however, occurred as railways, roads and ports were built to expand the economy. As of the end of 2022, the economy stood at $33 billion. During the same period, the economy had bad ratings with internal rating agencies.

However, in 2013 Fitch projected that the economy of Gabon will be growing at an impressive 6.0%—among the better-growing ones. In 2022, Gabon joined the Commonwealth of Nations as its 55th member, despite the group being mostly made up of former British colonies.

Security Issues:
Gabon has had a relatively stable political system albeit dented with disputed elections over the decades. The last elections were marked by protests and accusations of fraud. With another election
approaching, security and stability concerns linger.

Other securitized issues in Gabon include; the threat posed by HIV, youth unemployment and environmental degradation.

The country has a large youthful population with more than two-thirds below age 30. If unemployment remains high, it poses a security threat to the state. Also, over-exploitation of the forest keeps depleting the important cover with its concomitant environmental dangers.

Verdict:
With a vast reserve of untapped resources, a growing youthful population and some relative improvement in infrastructure, Gabon holds immense potential. What is required is an open political system that
reduces the risk of instability in the long term. The increasing incidents of political violence, especially during and after elections is a major concern. Security and investment risk are in the upper moderates.

15/07/2023

Chad: investment opportunities amid physical insecurity.

Chad is the largest landlocked country in Africa. The sheer size of the country and its location "grant" it a strategic role in the continent's security.

Covering over 1.2 million square kilometres, the country is more than twice the size of France—the largest country in Western Europe. It has a population of about 17 million people of diverse ethnicity including Arabs.

Chad’s economy has moved from one that had been heavily agrarian to an oil-dependent one. This has been the case since it started producing the resource two decades ago. Worth over about $12 billion, the country’s economy is significant.

Countries with an economic interest in the Chad petroleum industry include China, the United States, France, and Taiwan. The oil pipeline linking the hub of oil production in the south with Cameroon is a major economic infrastructure of international value. With a fast-growing and young population, the country is estimated to reach over 60 million people from its current 17 million in 2100.

This means, a huge market driven by consumption now and in the future. Its location in Central Africa and the borders its shares with important economies in the overlapping regions give its economic advantage also in the long term. Nigeria, Cameroon, Libya, and Sudan are among these economies. The country is improving its infrastructure in recent times—especially in the south.

Security Issues:
When terror groups became more active in the Sahel, the G5 Sahelian states that had come together to combat the menace included Chad. It was the only state outside West Africa to be part of the security arrangement. Yes, Chad is important in West Africa. The country also shares a boundary with Nigeria, the most populous and largest economy in Africa.

Chad shares a vast northern border with Libya which had in the past been a reason for an inter-state conflict between the two states. For decades, Libya has influenced in many ways the domestic politics of its southern neighbour.

Currently, the terror menace in Africa constitutes one of the major challenges on the continent. To effectively fight it, states like Chad would be indispensable. Its position at the crossroad of the continent cannot be overlooked. The country has also become a transit zone for the trafficking of illicit arms and drugs.

Verdict:
Despite the insecurity faced by the country, especially in the north, the country holds potential for economic development. Its youthful population, if well-educated, could be very instrumental in the transformation of the economy. The risk remains high; however, if political stability and social investment are prioritized.

DefSec Analytics Africa Limited

16/05/2025

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