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21/02/2020

The British Pound was seen trading in volatile fashion against the Euro, Dollar and other currencies thanks to conflicting signals: on the one hand the latest inflation numbers out of the UK are clearly supportive, but on the other hand developments in EU-UK relations appear to be deteriorating ahead of critical trade talks.

First, on the matter of the data, the Pound recovered some earlier losses on the back of stronger-than-expected CPI figures from theONS that showed prices in the UK rose 1.8% in the year to January 2020.

This is greater than the 1.6% expected by markets and represents a pick-up in price increases from December where 1.3% is recorded.

Crucially, this rise puts inflation a great deal closer to the Bank of England's target rate of 2.0% and will almost certainly go some way in cooling expectations that the next move at the Bank of England will be to cut interest rates. The rule of thumb in FX markets is that when expectations for a rate cut at a central bank decrease, the currency that central bank issues rises.

This is the currently the case with Sterling, and we can see a notable 'gap' higher in the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate following the release of the data:

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