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Centre indépendant des analyses stratégiques, Boite postale 26728, Rabat (2026)

30/11/2024

Climate Action: A Key to Sustainable Development in Morocco

By Dr. Driss Effina

Amid global climate challenges, Morocco stands out as a regional leader in climate action, adopting an ambitious strategy to achieve sustainable development and protect its natural resources. Aware of the severe implications of climate change on its economy and environment, Morocco is transforming these challenges into opportunities for growth and innovation, setting an example for the Arab world and Africa.

Sustainable development has been at the heart of Moroccan policies in recent years, with a commitment to reducing carbon emissions and increasing reliance on renewable energy as a cornerstone of its economic strategy. Morocco’s experience demonstrates that transitioning to a green economy can create new job opportunities and enhance international competitiveness. Today, Morocco is a global leader in investing in solar and wind energy, exemplified by mega-projects like the Noor Solar Complex in Ouarzazate, one of the largest in the world. These initiatives are not just environmental responses; they are powerful drivers of energy independence, foreign investment attraction, and economic development in underprivileged areas.

Despite the progress made, Morocco faces significant climate challenges that threaten its environmental and economic stability. Water stress is among the most pressing issues, with the country ranked as one of those suffering from water scarcity. Additionally, agriculture—a cornerstone of the national economy—is under significant threat from climate changes, including decreased rainfall and rising temperatures. Estimates suggest that Morocco could lose a portion of its GDP if urgent measures are not taken to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Rural communities are likely to be the most affected, as they heavily depend on agriculture and lack advanced infrastructure.

In a decisive response to these challenges, Morocco has launched a series of strategic initiatives focused on transitioning to a green and sustainable economy. Among the most notable is the National Charter for the Environment and Sustainable Development, which sets clear goals for balancing economic growth with environmental protection. Renewable energy projects are also a key part of these strategies, aiming to secure 52% of electricity needs from renewable sources by 2030. Furthermore, climate adaptation initiatives include improving water resource management, implementing reforestation projects to combat desertification, and strengthening infrastructure to withstand the impacts of climate change.

The “Green Fund for Sustainable Development” plays a significant role in financing environmental projects, focusing on supporting local communities and enhancing climate resilience in the most vulnerable areas. The Moroccan government recognizes that successful climate efforts require effective partnerships with the private sector. To this end, the state provides tax incentives and encourages investments in green sectors such as waste management, sustainable agriculture, and clean energy production. Additionally, Morocco seeks to develop an advanced regulatory framework to empower the private sector to play a key role in achieving sustainable development goals.

Green hydrogen development is a pivotal element of Morocco’s climate strategy. The country’s ideal geographic location and abundant renewable energy resources make it well-suited to develop this promising sector. Morocco is expected to become a global hub for green hydrogen production and export, further strengthening its position in international markets.

Locally, Morocco has launched several initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable development in cities and rural areas, such as improving urban infrastructure, including sustainable public transportation and smart grids, and enhancing the efficiency of water and agricultural resource use in rural regions. Citizens play a crucial role in achieving these objectives by adopting sustainable practices at individual and community levels, such as recycling and resource conservation.

Morocco’s commitment to climate action offers significant economic and social opportunities. By reducing the carbon intensity of its products, Morocco can enhance its competitiveness in European markets, which adopt strict environmental standards. Renewable energy investments can attract more foreign capital and contribute to job creation in both rural and urban areas. Furthermore, Morocco can play a leading role in promoting regional cooperation to address climate change, particularly with African countries facing similar challenges.

Climate action presents Morocco with a genuine opportunity to achieve a sustainable developmental vision that balances economic growth with environmental protection. Through investments in renewable energy, strengthening partnerships between the public and private sectors, and implementing smart policies to adapt to climate change, Morocco can become a regional and international model. The future of development in Morocco largely depends on its ability to transform climate challenges into tangible opportunities that secure the well-being of future generations.

29/11/2024

Technology in the Arab World: Between Consumption and Dependency, Where Does the Problem Lie?
By Driss Effina, PhD

In an era where progress is measured by control over technology, the Arab world remains in the position of a recipient and consumer. Despite the presence of prominent Arab scientists and engineers in the field of technology, Arab countries suffer from a clear gap between consuming and developing technology. This raises a crucial question: why are Arab countries unable to absorb technology and adapt it to serve their development goals, despite the availability of financial and human resources?

Education in the Arab world is one of the main factors contributing to this issue. While universities and institutes graduate thousands of engineers annually, education suffers from a lack of innovation and weak links between academic research and technological industries. Curricula are often traditional and fail to meet the demands of the modern era, leading to a gap between what graduates learn and what the market requires. Furthermore, budgets allocated to scientific research in the Arab world are minimal compared to advanced countries. Even when research exists, it is often theoretical and lacks practical application, weakening opportunities for technological advancement.

Arab countries rely almost entirely on imported technology, whether from the West or Asia. This reliance entrenches technological dependency and imposes limits on local innovation. Instead of developing competitive national industries, Arab countries become consumer markets. This situation reflects a consumerist mentality prevalent in Arab societies, where technology is viewed as a tool for personal use rather than a driver of production or creativity. Weak investment in local technology companies exacerbates the issue, making technological entrepreneurship in the region highly limited.

Administrative culture in many Arab countries suffers from bureaucracy and stagnation, which hinder the development of an environment conducive to innovation. The absence of incentives and weak intellectual property protection lead to the discouragement of creative minds. Additionally, the traditional mindset dominant in Arab societies tends to favor familiar solutions, which hampers the adoption of new technologies or the development of innovative solutions. All of this weakens Arab countries’ ability to compete in the technological field.

The migration of skilled professionals is one of the most significant challenges facing Arab countries. Creative Arab minds often find themselves marginalized or working abroad. Researchers and engineers face an unencouraging local environment, pushing them to seek opportunities elsewhere, where their ideas are valued. This phenomenon drains the Arab world of the minds capable of leading technological advancement, keeping it in a perpetual position of dependency. Moreover, international collaboration is limited, preventing the effective transfer of knowledge and technology.

The belief that a lack of funding is the primary reason for technological underdevelopment in the Arab world is inaccurate. Many Arab countries have substantial financial resources but lack strategic planning on how to invest these funds. Budgets are often allocated to infrastructure or the purchase of ready-made technology rather than directed toward research and development. This approach weakens the chances of building a local technological base and keeps countries dependent on external sources.

Technological reform in the Arab world requires strong political will. Leaders and policymakers often focus on political and security issues, while technology remains a marginal concern. The absence of a long-term vision leaves technology outside the priorities of development planning. In contrast, countries that have succeeded in achieving technological advancement have made technology central to their national policies, enabling them to achieve technological independence.

To achieve genuine technological autonomy, the Arab world needs radical changes in its approach to technology. Education must keep pace with the demands of the modern era, focusing on innovation and scientific research. Supporting entrepreneurship and creating an environment that encourages creativity are also essential. Protecting intellectual property and enhancing international collaboration can play a significant role in driving technological progress.

Technology is not just a tool but a key to sovereignty in today’s world. If the Arab world does not act quickly to overcome its obstacles, it will remain trapped in dependency while others shape the future. Moving toward building a strong local technological ecosystem should be a priority, as the future of development in the region largely depends on this crucial step.

29/11/2023

A Democratic China: A Paradigm Shift in Global Order
China's meteoric rise to prominence in the 21st century has fundamentally altered the international landscape, posing both opportunities and challenges for the existing order. The nation's authoritarian political system, while instrumental in its economic success, has raised concerns among many, leading to questions about its future trajectory and the implications for global stability and cooperation. Amidst these concerns, the hypothetical scenario of China undergoing a democratic transformation has garnered significant attention, sparking debate and analysis about the potential ramifications of such a shift. This essay delves into the potential impacts of a democratic China on the world order, with a particular focus on the United States.
Domestic Transformations under a Democratic China
A democratic China would experience a profound transformation at home, marked by a shift from authoritarian rule to a system of representative government, individual liberties, and political freedoms. The Communist Party of China's (CPC) absolute control would wane, giving way to a more inclusive political structure with enhanced citizen participation. This would empower the Chinese people to have a say in their governance, fostering a more equitable and transparent political system.
Shifting Political Landscape
The transition to democracy would usher in a new era of political pluralism in China. The CPC, which has held sole power for over seven decades, would no longer be the sole arbiter of political decisions. Instead, competing political parties would emerge, representing diverse viewpoints and engaging in open debate on issues of national importance. This shift would foster greater transparency, accountability, and responsiveness to the needs of the Chinese people.
Empowered Citizens and Enhanced Rights
Under a democratic China, citizens would enjoy a range of fundamental rights and freedoms, including freedom of speech, assembly, and association. They would have the right to vote, participate in elections, and hold their representatives accountable. This would lead to a more active and engaged citizenry, contributing to a more vibrant and dynamic society.
Economic Implications
A democratic China would likely experience significant economic benefits. The transition to a more open and transparent political system would foster greater trust and confidence among investors, leading to increased investment and economic growth. Moreover, a democratic government would be more likely to prioritize social welfare programs, improving the quality of life for its citizens and reducing poverty and inequality.
International Repercussions of a Democratic China
A democratic China would have a profound impact on the global arena, reshaping international relations and ushering in a new era of cooperation. Its foreign policy would likely shift from a focus on self-interest to a more cooperative and inclusive approach, emphasizing multilateralism and engagement with international institutions. China would be more willing to adhere to international norms and rules, promoting global stability and cooperation.
United States-China Relations: A New Dynamic

The United States, the current global hegemon, would experience a significant shift in its relationship with a democratic China. The ideological rivalry that has characterized their interactions would likely diminish, replaced by a more pragmatic partnership based on shared interests. The two nations could collaborate on issues such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic cooperation, addressing global challenges collectively.
Challenges and Obstacles to a Democratic Transition
Despite the potential benefits, a democratic transition in China is fraught with challenges. The sheer size and complexity of the country, with over 1.4 billion people and diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds, would pose significant hurdles in integrating them into a democratic system. Moreover, the legacy of authoritarian rule would need to be overcome, requiring a substantial shift in political culture and the erosion of the CPC's entrenched power base.
The CPC's Resistance and Potential Instability
The CPC would likely resist any attempts to dismantle its authority, potentially employing various tactics to maintain its grip on control, leading to political instability and social unrest. The transition to democracy could also be delayed or derailed by external factors, such as economic crises or foreign
The Role of the United States in Facilitating a Democratic Transition
The United States, as the current global power, could play a crucial role in facilitating a democratic transition in China. By supporting human rights, promoting democratic values, and engaging in constructive dialogue, the US could encourage the CPC to move towards a more open political system.
By Driss EFFINA, Phd

13/04/2020

Coronavirus : de nouvelles révélations
L’examen des dernières statistiques à l’échelle mondiale de la pandémie du coronavirus donne lieu à de nouvelles révélations. L’analyse concerne la relation potentielle qui peut exister entre l’intensité de la mortalité du COVIDS 19 et le taux de propagation et le taux de guérison au niveau d’un échantillon de pays développés et qui disposent des systèmes de santé très améliorés. Cette analyse a montré que le taux de mortalité dans ces pays est statistiquement lié à l’intensité de propagation du Coronavirus. Aussi cette même analyse montre que l’intensité de mortalité n’est pas influencée par le taux de guérison lorsqu’il est faible (inférieur à 30%). Ces résultats prouvent que la solution de confinement reste le meilleur moyen pour diminuer le taux de propagation du virus et en conséquence du taux de mortalité et montre aussi que les médicaments disponibles à aujourd’hui ne sont pas très efficaces pour diminuer le taux de guérison et en conséquence le taux de mortalité parmi les cas du Coronavirus.
Dr Driss EFFINA

12/04/2020

فيروس كورونا : اخر التطورات
احصائيات اليوم العالمية حول وباء فيروس كورونا تبشر بانحصار هذا الوباء خلال آجال قريبة. جل المؤشرات الاستراتيجية لهذا الوباء سجلت تحسنا كبيرا مقارنة بالأمس. فوثيرة الزيادة اليومية للإصابات الجديدة انتقلت إلى 3,9% وهو ادنى مستوى لها منذ شهر . كما ان الوثيرة اليومية لتزايد الوفيات تراجعت الى 5% وهو ادنى مستوى خلال لها الشهر الأخير اما نسبة التعافي العالمية فاتفقت الى 23% وهو اعلى مستوى عالمي. على ضوء هذه الوضعية الجديدة فان الجائحة ستختفي خلال 12 يونيو المقبل بعدد إصابات يناهز 2,2 مليون ووفيات يناهز مجموعها 258 الف.
د إدريس الفينة

09/04/2020

هل هناك فصائل متعددة من فيروس كورونا 19 ؟
تحليل المعطيات الإحصائية والجغرافية المرتبطة بنسبة الوفيات المرتبة بفيروس كورونا ونسبة التعافي وسرعة الانتشار عبر المجالات الجغرافية المعنية يعطي الانطباع اننا امام ستة فصائل احصائية من فيروس كورونا وليس فصيلة واحدة كما يمكن ان نعتقد. الفصيلة الإحصائية الأولى التي برزت في الصين خلال شهر دجنبر وانتشرت بسرعة خلال يناير وفبراير ثم عرفت استقرارا . هذه الفصيلة تتميز بقدرة قتل تناهز 4% ونسبة تعافي تناهز 90% وسرعة انتشار جد ضعيفة (60 في مليون نسمة). انتشار هذا الفيروس عبر العالم تم عبر طفرات احصائية بمواصفات جديدة تظهرها كل المعطيات التقنية المتوفرة لحدود اليوم . فالفصيلة التي وصلت إلى أوروبا وخصوصًا إيطاليا وفرنسا وأسبانيا والمملكة المتحدة تتميز بقوة قتل اربع مرات مقارنة بفصيلة الصين الأولى ويتميز بنسبة تعافي تناهز في المتوسط 16% اي ست مرات اضعف ، كما ان سرعة انتشارها قوية تناهز 1600 الى 3000 حالة في مليون نسمة. الفصيلة الثالثة التي ظهرت في ايران والعراق وسوريا ولبنان تتميز بنسبة قتل تناهز 6% ونسبة تعافي مرتفعة تناهز 45 وسرعة انتشار متوسطة في حدود 800 في المليون نسمة.
الفصيلة الرابعة وهي التي شكلت الموجة الثانية من الانتشار التي عرفتها الفصيلة الأولى الآتية من الصين وشملت خصوصا دول اسيا وتتميز بقوة قتل ضعيفة تناهز 2% ونسبة تعافي مرتفعة في حدود 40% وسرعة انتشار لاتتعدى 200 في المليون نسمة. ويتكون المجال الجغرافي المعني من دول اسيا وخصوصا وهونغ كونغ وأستراليا وماليزيا والفيتنام وكوريا الجنوبية وسنغافورة واليابان. الغريب ان ألمانيا توجد في هذه المجموعة لأسباب غير واضحة فهي تتميز بنسبة وفيات ضعيفة ونسبة تعافي مرتفعة يجعلها قريبة من هذه المجموعة الرابعة لكنها تبقى قريبة من المجموعة الثانية من حيث سرعة الانتشار. الفصيلة السادسة تتميز بنسبة وفيات ضعيفة بل اقل من حالة الصين وبنسبة تعافي ضعيفة ولكن بسرعة انتشار مرتفعة وهي حالة الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية وعدد كبير من دول العالم.
الخريطة التي تم إنجازها والمبنية على أساس قوة القتل عند فيروس كورونا ونسبة التعافي وسرعة الانتشار هي الأولى من نوعها. ستسمح من اجراء تحليلات وقراءات متعددة لظاهرة فيروس كورونا من زوايا جديدة للتعلق فقط بالتطور اليومي. كما انها ستسمح من معرفة مآل بعض الدول ليس فقط من خلال تطور الإصابات اليومية لكن من خلال المجموعة التي يوجد فيها البلد.
د إدريس الفينة

06/04/2020

فيروس كورونا والذكاء الاقتصادي
عندما تكثر الضبابية يصبح النصابين والمحتالين والدجالين والمشعوذين والسحرة ومنتحلي المعرفة والدين موجهين للرأي العام من خلال كل مايقدموه كمواد استهلاكية فاسدة. عدد من المغالطات تقدم اليوم للرأي العام حول هذا الفيروس تفسد وتضعف المجهودات التي تقدمها الدولة بل وتجد الشخص غير متاكد من ما يطلب منه القيام به لصالحه معتقدا ان جهه ما تتآمر عليه كما فسر له الدجال. هذه المسافة بيم المجتمع والدولة تم الاشتغال عليها باعتماد عدد من النماذج التي اصبحت رائدة اليوم. لقد راينا كيف استطاعت بعض الدول ان تتحكم في الجائحة عبر الذكاء الاقتصادي او التحكم الرقمي في المجتمع الذي تحول لفرد واحد. فاليابان يمثل اليوم قمة الدول التي مارست الذكاء الاقتصادي منذ اكثر من سبعين سنة لتسريع تطور مجتمعها واقتصادها بل ولتصبح ثالث قوة اقتصادية عالمية. امام جائحة فيروس كورونا لم يجد هذا البلد ادنى صعوبة في تدبير هذه الأزمة بل وبأقل تكلفة عالميا علمًا انها كانت ثالث بلد يصاب بهذه الفيروس بعد الصين. وتمكنت بسهولة من تطويقها. واليوم تتوفر على ادنى عدد من الوفيات عالميًا مقارنة بوزنها الديموغرافي (0,7 في المليون )بل لم نلاحظ ادنى ارتباك عندها كما حصل في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية وفرنسا وإيطاليا واسبانيا. هذا النموذج الياباني يقابله النموذج الصيني المبني على التحكم الرقمي في المجتمع . وهي منهجية مخالفة تمامًا لنموذج اليابان. فالصين ليس بلد ديموقراطي رغم ان اقتصاده يعتمد السوق. الصين أبهرت العالم في تدبيرها للمجتمع بشكل تام عبر وسائل التكنولوجيا المتقدمة. فالصين انهت التعامل بالنقود منذ مدة التي حولتها الى رقمية. كما ان المجتمع كله اصبح مرقمًا وكل فرد له نقطة محددة من حيث الانضباط والسلوك تحدد مدى انضباطه المجتمعي. والتعليمات تمر بسرعة فائقة من المركز للمواطن أينما وجد. الصين اشتغلت على هذا النموذج المجتمعي منذ مدة وهو ما ساعدها على تدبير هذه الأزمة بشكل اثار انتباه العالم. الصين تعرف ان هذه الثورة الرقمية المجتمعية ستخفض كلفة تدبير المجتمع في الأوقات العادية وفي التدبير السريع للمجتمع في زمن الأزمات. النموذج الياباني في تدبير المجتمع يعتمد الذكاء الاقتصادي الذي يهدف رفع وعي المجتمع بكل ما يدور حوله محليًا ووطنيًا ودوليًا حتى داخل المقاولة تجد العامل على دراية تامة بما يجري داخلها من تطورات وتحديات اي ان المواطن يتحمل المسؤولية كاملة ويثق في المسؤول. كل هذا يتم دون ضغط او ابتزاز بل برغبة جامحة من المواطن نفسه الذي يعرف ان مصالحه تلتقي مع مصالح الدولة والوطن في كل الظروف.
د ادريس الفينة

05/04/2020

Coronavirus : les prévisions de 10 prochains jours
Suite à l’instabilité des statistiques qui arrive du monde, il serait impossible de donner des prévisions fiables sur une longue durée. C’est pour cela que je vais commencer à publier seulement les prévisions des 10 prochains jours pour le monde et les USA. Ce pays qui commence à représenter un cas particulier pour cette pandémie.
Le 5/420 va s’achever avec un nombre de cas de coronavirus de 1 269 028, soit une hausse de 67 575. Le nombre de décès passera à 69 046, soit 5.44% des cas de coronavirus. Au cours de 10 prochains jours (15/4/20), le nombre de cas de coronavirus passera à 2.085 millions et 135 339 cas de décès, soit un taux de 6.49%v. Le phénomène commencera à se stabiliser à partir de 9 avril prochain, mais très lentement.
Aux USA, le nombre de cas sera aujourd’hui de 331 742, et un total de décès de 9 528, soit un taux de décès de 2.9% des cas de coronavirus. Le 15 avril, le nombre cas de coronavirus passera à 810 174, et le total de décès à 57 281, soit un taux de décès de 4.6%. Les cas de coronavirus aux USA représentent aujourd’hui une part de 26% des cas de coronavirus du monde. Cette part passera à 39% le 15 avril prochain.
Le phénomène va perdurer jusqu’au 27 octobre prochain.
Dr Driss EFFINA

04/04/2020

COVID19 : les USA fassent au pire des scénarios
Les chiffres qui arrivent des cas de coronavirus des USA sont alarmants. Le grand dispositif ployé et les mesures prises par l’Etat américain ne donnent pas encore des résultats satisfaisants. Les chiffres des cas de coronavirus s’amplifier d’un jour à l’autre. A aujourd’hui il n’y a pas de scénario favorable pour cette première économie mondiale qui se voit submerger par la pandémie. Aujourd’hui, les prévisions les plus récentes donnent à ce pays une estimation de 305 944 cas, soit une hausse journalière de 28 783 . Le nombre de décès sera de 8 327 , soit une hausse de 923 cas. Le taux de mortalité parmi les cas touchés est passé de 1.6% à 2.9% en 10 jours. Les prévisions de court terme pour ce pays donnent un total de 1.033 million de cas de coronavirus le 17 avril. Ce nombre passera à 2.03 millions le 28 avril prochain et un total de décès de 380 000.
Les USA ont besoin d’une gestion de la crise de cette pandémie plus rigoureuse pour faire face aux scénarii les plus catastrophiques qui peuvent arriver.
Dr Driss EFFINA

02/04/2020

Coronavirus : révision des prévisions
Selon les dernières statistiques disponibles, à aujourd’hui, sur l’évolution des cas de coronavirus à l’échelle mondiale, de dernières tendances révèlent un léger relâchement de la décélération du phénomène à l’échelle mondiale constaté avant le 31 mars 2020. Ce relâchement va entrainer tout simplement un re**rd dans la disparition de la pandémie. Les chiffres des États unis ont participé considérablement à ce relâchement inattendu. D’après le modèle mathématique que j’ai élaboré spécialement pour le suivi de cette pandémie, il est prévu que le total de cas de coronavirus atteindra son maximum à 4.44 millions de cas vers le 24 juin prochain. Après cette date, le phénomène rentrera dans la phase de stationnarité presque totale. Le nombre de décès à cette date sera de 1,96 million de cas, soit 25.1% des cas concernés au lieu de 5% aujourd’hui. Ces prévisions sont basées sur les dernières tendances observées depuis le 27 mars. Le nombre d’augmentations journalières de cas a atteint son maximum de 105628 le 17 avril prochain. Ce scénario non optimiste peut être évité si le confinement sanitaire exigé par les États à l’échelle mondiale est appliqué avec plus de rigueur.
Dr Driss EFFINA
Le 2-avr 2020

11/09/2018

State-region: the element of coherence
The state intervenes throughout the national territory through its various sectoral policies. State intervention is generally rational since it is guided by specific objectives and criteria. The State tries to ensure in general a permanent balance between the economic and social needs in order to make the territories more profitable on the one hand and to answer the urgent and continuous needs of the populations, on the other hand. The territories do not all have the same economic profitability, in the eyes of the state, but they are all populated and disposing of resources and assets differentiated. The public policy orientation framework for spatial planning is a reference document which specifies the orientations and the priorities of the various sectoral public policies on the very long term throughout the national territory. . This document translates in principle the vision of the State, within the framework of a global coherence, in terms of intervention on the national territory. This public spatial planning policy is based on an updated reading and a thorough diagnosis of the territory as a whole. A reading that highlights the issues, constraints, needs and potentialities related to the national territory. The regional variation of this policy sets in principle at the scale of this territorial entity of critical size, and having a regulatory framework with recognized attributions, the orientations in terms of spatial planning within the framework of a vision of 'together. This vision represents an additional support for the actors of the region, allowing them, in the framework of a consensus, to have a programming of their projects and to fix their priorities which answer the different needs of the citizens to the scale of the region while taking into account the priorities of the state at the scale of this same territorial entity. It is on this basis that the state and the regions can work together in the long term on a project of development of the region without divergence in the visions.
Dr Driss EFFINA

Centre indépendant des analyses stratégiques

30/11/2024

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