Arete Group Global

17/07/2024

Elevated Threat of Terrorist Attacks in Nigeria

On Wednesday, 10 July 2024, a Nigerian media source reported that Nigerian security forces had recently been placed on an elevated alert level following receipt of intelligence concerning planned su***de bomb attacks by Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP). (https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/712071-nigerian-military-confirms-premium-times-report-on-iswap-su***de-bombing-threat.html)

These plans included attacks by the terrorists against prison and oil and gas facilities in Nigeria. The following day, the Nigerian Defence Headquarters (DHQ) confirmed the report. While the threat is considered to be credible, there have been a number of similar threat reports in recent years that have either failed to materialise or been quickly and quietly defeated by Nigerian security forces.

Neither the media report nor the DHQ statement contained details of the exact targets, or the specific type of attack that was being planned, however the current trend in the northeast is for the use of Person Borne IEDs (PBIED), such as that witnessed at the beginning of this month which killed over 30 people.

The latest Global Terrorism Index is currently indicating that almost half of all deaths from terrorism globally originate in the Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria being one of only 3 countries to have not dropped out of the top 10 most impacted countries on this list since 2011. Of note, Nigeria recorded its first increase in terrorism in three years in 2023, with total deaths rising by 34% to 524, marking Nigeria’s highest death toll from terrorism since 2020.

Clients are advised to monitor local news and intelligence channels for latest developments and to reach out to our team here - [email protected] for any specific advice, monitoring or reporting requirements you may have.

20/06/2024

The recent announcement that Nigeria has finally exited from the list of War Risk Insurance (WRI) means that ships heading to Nigeria no longer need to pay an additional insurance premium potentially leading to an uptick in vessels calling at ports and terminals.

This development, long advocated by Nigerian authorities, is a significant win for the Blue Economy (read our analysis of this back in 2021 here - arete-group.com/2021/06/24/war-risk-insurance).

The reduction in insurance costs is hoped to enhance trade by lowering the overall cost of shipping, potentially boosting Nigeria's economy through increased maritime commerce and improved investor confidence.

Over the past 18 months, reported piracy and maritime incidents in Nigerian waters have seen significant reductions. In 2023, there were 3 recorded pirate attacks against seagoing ships; however, the abduction of 5 people, including 3 Lebanese, from a waterway near Apapa last week shows that the risk of incident on Nigerian waters still remains. With the continuing economic hardship faced by so many Nigerians, the conditions are ripe for maritime security threats to spike should traffic to Nigerian ports increase, especially if adequate measures are not used to mitigate the potential risks.

The above aside, illegal oil refining and theft remain a real issue in Nigeria (see our report from last week - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arete-africa_as-discussed-yesterday-nigerias-oil-industry-activity-7206921343865339906-f4QF?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios) and as more of the population struggle with the cost of living crisis, many may have no choice but to turn to illicit activities to survive. With Nigeria’s inflation rate soaring to 34% as at 1st June 2024, it is currently estimated that over 150 million Nigerians live below the poverty line, intensifying potential security threats as despair fuels more illicit activities both on and offshore.

Arete have been providing maritime security services in Nigeria and wider West Africa for well over a decade with a 100% record of success and are ready to provide advice and assistance to shipping operators currently operating, or thinking of operating, in the region. To discuss your plans and see how our knowledge, experience and understanding of the environment may help you, please contact our team - [email protected]

Read more here - https://guardian.ng/nigeria-out-of-war-risk-insurance-says-nimasa-dg/

14/06/2024

Further issues facing Nigeria's oil industry have been raised this week.

The Nembe Kingdom has raised numerous grievances against Aiteo Exploration and Production Ltd (AEPL), including complaints of environmental negligence, contract irregularities, nepotism and failure to complete a vital power project that was 82% complete when acquired from the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd (SPDC).

The Nembe Kingdom has threatened to shut in the production fields in OML29 on multiple occasions when the field was operated by SPDC. The Nembe communities are among the more aggressive host communities in the Niger Delta and the Kingdom has hosted militant camps of groups associated with the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND as well as those of pirate groups operating in the Gulf of Guinea.

AEPL purchased OML29 and also the Nembe Creek Trunk Line (NCTL) from SPDC in 2015. Remediation work was started on the trunk line in 2019 to restore the line to its full 150mbpoed capacity.

Aiteo should take the implied threat seriously as the field and trunkline are vital to the company’s commercial health and the Nembe Kingdom has an established history of influencing the behaviour of the operator of the assets in question.

Community grievances are yet another piece in the jigsaw of drivers of risk and instability that plague oil and gas operators in the Niger Delta. It adds to the urgency that is becoming evident in the President’s strategy to improve production capacity as discussed in our analysis earlier this week.

In the event the NCTL is shut in, Nigeria will lose more than 10% of its total production according to figures by OPEC in its Monthly Oil Markets Report published in May 2024. Such a significant loss of production, and the associated reduction in foreign currency earnings will undoubtedly focus minds in NNPC, the Oil Ministry and the Presidential Villa.

Arete provides risk mitigation advice and assistance to protect against offshore and onshore threats. For further information on how we can assist you please contact us via - [email protected]







https://punchng.com/nigerias-oil-production-at-risk-as-host-community-threatens-action/

13/06/2024

As discussed yesterday, Nigeria's oil industry continues to face significant challenges in the oil industry. Two news items in recent days highlight the systemic issue of oil theft impacting the formal energy sector.

It was stated on Sunday that major oil companies operating at Dangote Refinery were attributing poor crude supply to theft and illegal refineries (https://punchng.com/dangote-refinery-oil-majors-blame-theft-low-production-for-poor-crude-supply/) underscoring how these issues hinder crude supply highlighting a broader crisis in the supply chain and in turn the economy as the country exports crude to raise foreign exchange also leading to shortages and higher prices in the country.

The news of the Nigerian Air Force's weekend airstrikes against illegal refineries near the Abia, Imo, and Rivers border (https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/06/10/naf-conducts-airstrikes-destroys-illegal-refineries-near-abia-imo-rivers-border/) show some action is being taken. These illegal operations contribute to the theft and diversion of crude oil, undermining the national economy and formal industry operations, and shows ongoing government efforts to clamp down on illegal refining activities, aiming to secure Nigeria's oil resources and stabilize the sector and in turn the economy.

Both news items shed light on interconnected aspects of Nigeria's oil sector challenges with both reports noting that oil theft and illegal refining significantly impact legitimate operations (losses of 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, worth a staggering N1.29trn annually, according to Speaker of the House of Representatives, (Abbas Tajudeen)). Whilst taking action against illegal operations is critical, especially during a very difficult economic period for Nigeria, military interventions against illegal refining are not without risk (collateral damage, environmental etc.).

For companies operating in Nigeria, these reports emphasize the complexities of Nigeria's oil industry, where illegal activities and security concerns directly affect production and supply chains. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders invested in Nigeria's energy sector and broader economic stability. Arete can assist with mitigating the risks of operating in Nigeria, from the provision of Threat Analyses and Risk Assessments to the provision of physical protection for business visits to all regions. Please contact one of our Specialists for advice and assistance on any requirement you may have.

12/06/2024

The challenges posed to the Nigerian economy by the parallel oil industry are massive. With oil and condensate being stolen in industrial quantities, the IOCs are suffering major losses in terms of revenue and also the contrived blame-game that attributes the environmental impact of oil theft to the operators of the oilfields and pipelines.

Coupled with the seemingly untouchable issue of the oil marketers and their alleged interference in the operational capacity of the country’s old refinery infrastructure, the economy is suffering hugely from illicit activities.

The final factor that is affecting the ability of the Dangote refinery, the modular refineries and the residual capacity in the refineries at Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna is the question of currency. The IOCs trade exclusively in dollars and the indigenous refineries want to pay in Naira. This presents significant risk to the IOCs and is unlikely to happen without substantial guarantees.

The recent air strikes against active illicit refineries in the Obiaku area and the move by the NAF to establish a new air base in Abia State are probably a reflection of frustration in the Presidency at the enduring nature of the illegal oil bunkering industry. Prior to taking office, he swore to deal with the illegal bunkering, pledging to bring in new wide-area surveillance systems including aerostat platforms and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to identify illicit activity.

To date this has not happened, although recent indications are that he still wants to deliver this capability. There will be pushback among some sections of the security forces to the idea of private contractors operating surveillance systems that could expose corruption and complicity among the security agencies. Whatever happens, unless the security forces can respond effectively, any new surveillance capability will be wasted. So, for now, it appears we can expect highly kinetic operations by the NAF to increase in frequency in the Niger Delta.

04/06/2024

Russian/Chinese Expansion in Africa - Part 2

In October 2021 the Russian Navy deployed a maritime task group to the Gulf of Guinea for counter-piracy operations, signalling its growing interest in the region. By July 2023, Equato-Guinean delegates at the Russo-Africa Summit in St Petersburg engaged with Russian oil, gas, and mining companies, aiming to enhance trade and economic ties. Following the summit, Russia announced it would reopen its embassy in Bioko.
In November 2023, President Putin met Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo in Moscow. Putin stated their discussions focused on security and regional relations, with plans for further collaboration. President Obiang highlighted the significant international security challenges and affirmed Russia as a traditional strategic partner of Equatorial Guinea and Africa.

It is clear from this activity that Russia is intent on expanding its ties with Malabo, seeking a foothold for power projection into strategic regional waters. Whilst Russia’s navy continues to suffer losses in the Black Sea from Ukraine, Russia’s intent may well be to expand its footprint in the Gulf of Guinea to potentially interdict Western trade alongside securing its own interests in Africa.

President Obiang enjoys a close relationship with China, however Beijing has been far more measured in its ambitions than Russia, investing heavily in the port of Bata in Equatorial Guinea, ensuring its 550m piers are capable of accommodating the newest Chinese aircraft carriers (noting a recent Pentagon report in 2023 highlighted Equatorial Guinea as the potential site for a new Chinese naval base).

Notably, China has built a strong presence in the country for over 5 decades, with their activity being supported by a large embassy and robust security ties through bilateral engagements. Indeed, in a statement released during the recent state visit of President Obiang to Beijing, the 2 countries were said to have “elevated their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation”.

Since 2014, China has increased activities throughout the Gulf of Guinea, conducting port calls and anti-piracy drills with local navies (between 2014 and 2019 China participated in 39 military
exchanges with regional partners). Again notably Angola and Nigeria are among China’s top oil suppliers and Lekki deep sea port was also built by a Chinese company. This growing engagement reflects Beijing’s strategic interest in the region, and their pursuit of a program of rapid naval expansion, both in terms of numbers and also capabilities.

In conclusion both Russia and China clearly see the Gulf of Guinea as vital ground with China particularly regarding the region as a link in its so-called “String of Pearls” – a strategic plan for a chain of naval bases around the world. These ambitions, if achieved by one or both countries, represent a significant challenge to western naval dominance of the eastern Atlantic and the entire West African coastline. While NATO is fixated on Ukraine, the Levant and Taiwan, both Moscow and Beijing are clearly keen on pushing forward with their strategies for Africa and wider global economic hegemony.

https://arete-group.com/2024/06/04/russian-chinese-expansion-in-africa/

03/06/2024

Russian/Chinese Expansion in Africa (Part 1)

With last week’s state visit to Beijing by Equatorial Guinea’s President, which follows a separate visit by President Embalo (Guinea-Bissau) to Russia earlier in May (purportedly to prepare for an update to their 2018 military agreement), we analyse how international ‘powers’ are continuing to enhance their presence in the Gulf of Guinea.

Over the last 5 years, Russia and China have made significant strides in asserting their power in the region with China seeking to leverage its enhanced military reach to control strategic choke points crucial to global trade, and Russia attempting to restore its superpower status and influence Eastern and Central Europe.

Both nations clearly recognise the strategic importance of the Gulf of Guinea, which is not only rich in minerals and natural resources, but who’s coastline has over 20 major ports crucial for accessing new markets, however any action on their respective parts could well pose potential threats to regional peace and stability.

In the past 3 years, Russian and Chinese interests in Africa have grown significantly. China's commercial activities have expanded quietly, highlighted by a newly commissioned pipeline transporting oil from southern Niger through Benin. Although the pipeline was briefly closed by the Porto Novo government (in response to accusations by the Nigerien government that Benin was allowing the presence of terrorist training camps on its side of the border), Chinese intervention resolved the issue, ensuring oil continued to flow through the port at Seme.

Both nations are keen to establish a naval presence to protect their strategic interests, following the historical precedent set by colonial powers. In April 2024, Russia signed a military accord with São Tomé and Príncipe for military training, logistical support and 'possible collaborations' raising concerns from Portugal amongst others about increased Russian influence.

As global powers vie for Africa's vast resources, securing regional sea lanes is crucial. Tomorrow, we will analyse what has happened so far and what may be next for China and Russia in this strategic competition.

31/05/2024

More chapters to follow?

Since August 2020, a wave of coups and attempted coups has swept through several African countries, including Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Gabon. The most recent coups in Niger (July 2023) and Gabon (August 2023) have left military leaders still acting as Heads of State.

While 'Coup Fever' appears to be contagious in West Africa and the Sahel, it seems last week's rumours in Equatorial Guinea were unrelated to internal events. Given the rumours surfaced within 48 hours of the Kinshasa coup attempt, it is plausible that news of the impending/planned events in DRC reached Malabo, sparking speculation about a coup or similar actions unfolding closer to home.

Unlike the coups in Francophone West Africa and the Sahel, which may have been influenced at least in part by anti-Western sentiment, increasing Russian presence, and the withdrawal of U.N. troops, the DRC incident appears to be a power grab by an individual driven by personal economic and political ambitions.

There is no evidence to suggest foreign interference in the DRC event; it seems more a case of an opportunist expecting support
from local elements, who ultimately abandoned him.

Regardless, the weekend’s events highlight that coups and attempted overthrows of power remain a persistent threat across the continent, driven by many factors including economic
hardship, instability, poor internal security, inadequate education, and perceived weak democracies. With upcoming elections in Chad, Guinea-Bissau, and Mali, further instability is a real possibility.

For those with interests in West Africa and beyond, we offer comprehensive assistance to navigate these challenging environments. With our extensive experience advising clients on
their business operations in high-risk areas, Arete are equipped to provide expert guidance and strategic planning to ensure your success and safety.

Our services include:

• Planning for Operating in High-Risk Environments: From inception to completion, we provide tailored strategies to ensure your operations run smoothly.
• Risk Assessments and Threat Analysis: We deliver in-depth assessments and analyses to identify and mitigate potential threats.
• Journey Management Services: We ensure safe and efficient travel for your teams, minimizing risks along the way.

Protect your investments and ensure the safety of your personnel with our expert guidance.

Contact [email protected] for more information on how we can help you navigate these complex and volatile landscapes.

You can read the full breakdown here - https://arete-group.com/2024/05/31/a-tale-of-two-coups/

30/05/2024

A Tale of Two Coups? –Democratic Republic of Congo.

Two days after rumours of a potential coup in Equatorial Guinea, an actual coup attempt unfolded in the DRC capital, Kinshasa. Many details remain unclear, but here's what is
known:
- A firefight erupted outside the Gombe residence of Vital Kamerhe, sole candidate for the post of Speaker of the National Assembly.
- A second group seized the nearby Palais de la Nation, raising the flag of former Zaire.
- The attempted coup was led by 41-year-old Christian Malanga, a naturalised American citizen, who live-streamed the attack on Facebook. Malanga was killed, along with two Congolese security officials, while his son, also involved, was captured alive.
- Gunfire from the capital hit Brazzaville in the neighbouring Republic of the Congo, injuring several people.

Malanga, a wealthy businessman, politician and former Congolese army captain, lived in the US where his family had secured political asylum when he was a child. He had a criminal
record for fi****ms and domestic violence offences in the US.

Known for his grandiose aspirations, Malanga stood for election as a member of the opposition in the 2011 DRC legislative elections but was arrested for being openly anti-Kabila prior to polling day. Upon release, he returned to the US, founded the opposition United Congolese Party (UCP), and declared himself President of the "New Zaire" government in exile. He published a manifesto detailing plans to create business opportunities and reform Congo's security services, campaigned for religious freedom in Africa, and led anti-corruption training for young
Africans in Europe.

In addition to three US citizens, a naturalised British subject and the President’s former Security Advisor, Francois Beya, were also arrested. In all, 50 people have been arrested in the security sweeps that followed the events. The African Union condemned the coup and praised the military’s response.

We will continue to monitor developments and provide updates. Our analysis of this 48-hours, and what may follow, will be posted tomorrow.

29/05/2024

A Tale of Two Coups? – Equatorial Guinea

On Friday, 17 May 2024, rumours emerged suggesting a state of emergency or an attempted coup in Equatorial Guinea's capital, Malabo. Unverified reports claimed a state of emergency had been declared the previous day and mainland borders had been closed. However, our investigation and local intelligence found no credible evidence to support these claims, and all flights operating as scheduled during this time.
Equatorial Guinea’s leadership is particularly wary of potential coups due to the country’s history of such attempts. President Teodoro Obiang, serving the world’s longest uninterrupted presidency, has been in power since 1979. In October 2003, security services arrested a French journalist amid coup rumours. Obiang also faced a significant coup attempt in 2004 when South African mercenaries, planning to replace him with a more business-friendly figure, were arrested in Zimbabwe en route to Equatorial Guinea. This event, known as the “Wonga Coup,” failed before it could begin.

More recently, in December 2018, a coup attempt involved 40 armed mercenaries from Chad, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, allegedly connected to radical opposition elements within the country.
Whether President Obiang’s prolonged tenure is due to exceptional security measures or sheer luck remains unclear. Nonetheless, the nation's security net remains highly vigilant, and the recent rumours may simply reflect a heightened sense of paranoia stemming from past experiences. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates.

If these posts interest you and you require additional information and support, reach out to us here - https://arete-group.com/contact/

With our extensive experience advising clients on their business operations in high-risk areas, Arete are equipped to provide expert guidance and strategic planning to ensure your success and safety. Don't hesitate to connect for tailored solutions and comprehensive assistance. A Tale of Two Coups? – Part 2 will be posted tomorrow.

08/05/2024

Following the recent 10 year anniversary of the April 2014 abduction of 276 schoolgirls from a secondary school in Chibok in Nigeria’s northeastern state of Borno, we look into what has continued to be an ever present threat in certain parts of the country.

On it's 10 year anniversary, we look into what has continued to be an ever present threat in certain parts of the country.

08/03/2024

We are glad to celebrate another with the team.

Here are some thoughts from the team on the theme.

"Investing in women is not merely a commitment to equality; it is a contribution to forging a better, more inclusive world for all."

"When we invest in women, we invest in a brighter future for all."

“Invest in Women” motivates me to champion policies and initiatives that empower women in the workplace, creating an environment where every team member feels respected, supported and has equal opportunities to thrive."

“Invest in Women" prompts us to recognise that supporting and empowering women is not only an ethical imperative but a strategic investment in building a more resilient and successful future."

We wish our clients and partners a positive and joyful as we celebrate the women across our industries and in our lives.

Count Her In; Invest in Women