04/08/2020
CAUSES OF CONFLICTS AND CRISIS
All over the world, conflicts, crisis and violence are midwifed by inordinate desires for political and economic advantages, greed, ego-related problems and plain mischief. Injustice and inequitable distribution of resources cause resentments, which invariably give rise to conflict situations. Some of these factors are at play in contemporary Nigeria.
Violent conflicts stem from multiple interconnected causes. Yet there are key factors or variables that are likely to determine whether political disputes evolve into violence or are settled peacefully. These variables can be causes of violence or causes of peace; analysts can examine conflict settings to assess these factors’ relative influence.
Determinants of conflict can be systemic (structural), proximate (enabling) or immediate (triggering). These factors can be internal or external to the area in conflict. These types of causes overlap and interrelate.
1. Systemic Causes: Structural Conditions
Systemic determinants cause objective changes in parties’ material circumstances; environmental deterioration, population growth, resource scarcity and competition, the colonial or Cold War legacy, breakdowns of values and traditions, poverty, the marginalization of pastoralists, and ethnicity are all examples of systemic causes of conflict. A study of 113 instances of failed states, civil wars, and related national crises from 1955 to 1994 tested 75 political, leadership, demographic, social, economic and environmental factors and found that three factors—a nation’s infant mortality rate, the extent of a nation’s trade, and the extent of democracy—were the most strongly associated with the crises and were linked with other factors that affect the risks of crisis, even though they did not directly cause the crises themselves. The first two variables are systemic.
Systemic sources of conflict are pervasive and affect large numbers of people. Their influence on the probability of conflict operates slowly. Measures like international programs or government policies that seek to prevent or reduce conflicts by treating their systemic sources often show results over the long term.
(2) Proximate Causes: Political and Institutional Factors
Proximate sources are problems in the social, political, and communications processes and institutions that mediate the effect of systemic conditions on peoples’ lives and behavior. Proximate factors are crucial influences on whether systemic conditions give rise to violent reactions or to more peaceful ways of dealing with conflicting interests. The linkage between proximate determinants and manifestations of violent conflict are easier to discern and their effect is more direct. Government policies, social organization, economic reform programs, the problems of political liberalization, militarization and external military aid can all be proximate sources of conflict.
3. Immediate Causes: Acts and Events
The most immediate and direct causes of violent conflict are found in actions and events that trigger violent actions—for instance, a government cracks down on an oppressed group which prompts a rebellion. Because they are more visible, these factors may be relatively easier to influence.