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31/03/2020

INFLUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SPREAD OF COVID 19

Mande Kato Hosea (Assoc. Professor) MNES, MMSAMalaysia, MEMAN, ISWA-USA
Climate Change, CO2 Efflux & Deforestation Expert



INTRODUCTION
Climate change refers to long-term statistical shifts of the weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events, including changes in the average weather condition or in the distribution of weather conditions around the average (i.e. extreme weather events). It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. Despite many discussions on the causes for climate change, there is a general recognition of an on-going global climate change and the non-minor role of human activities during this process (IPCC, 2007) .

According to the European Environment Agency (EEA, 2008), the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.74 °C in the 20th century, the global sea level has been rising 1.8 mm per year since 1961, and the Arctic sea ice has been shrinking by 2.7% per decade. Moreover, mountain glaciers are contracting, ocean water becomes more acidic, and extreme weather events occur more often. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted an average temperature rise of 1.5–5.8 °C across the globe during the 21st century, accompanied by increased extreme and anomalous weather events including heat-waves, floods and droughts (IPCC, 2001).

Climate change can affect human health (Costello et al., 2009, Epstein, 1999, Kovats et al., 2000, Willox et al., 2015), especially when infectious diseases are concerned (Altizer et al., 2013, Bouzid et al., 2014, Epstein, 2001a). Three components are essential for most infectious diseases: an agent (or pathogen), a host (or vector) and transmission environment (Epstein, 2001a). Some pathogens are carried by vectors or require intermediate hosts to complete their lifecycle. Appropriate climate and weather conditions are necessary for the survival, reproduction, distribution and transmission of disease pathogens, vectors, and hosts. Therefore, changes in climate or weather conditions may impact infectious diseases through affecting the pathogens, vectors, hosts and their living environment (Epstein, 2001a, Wu et al., 2014). Studies have found that long-term climate warming tends to favor the geographic expansion of several infectious diseases (Epstein et al., 1998, Ostfeld and Brunner, 2015, Rodó et al., 2013), and that extreme weather events may help create the opportunities for more clustered disease outbreaks or outbreaks at non-traditional places and time (Epstein, 2000). Overall, climate conditions constrain the geographic and seasonal distributions of infectious diseases, and weather affects the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks (Kuhn et al., 2005, Wu et al., 2014).

A warming and unstable climate is playing an ever-increasing role in driving the global emergence, resurgence and redistribution of infectious diseases (McMichael et al., 1996). New and resurgent vector-borne communicable diseases, including COVID 19 varus, hantavirus, dengue, malaria, and cholera, are evident widely (Tian et al., 2015b, Watson et al., 1997, Yu et al., 2015)

WHY ARE EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES ON THE RISE?
We have seen a trend of greater emergence of infectious diseases in recent decades. Most of these diseases have entered into people from animals, especially wild animals. This trend has many causes. We have massive concentrations of domesticated animals around the world, some of which can be home to pathogens, like the flu, that can make people sick. We also have massive concentrations of people in cities where diseases transmitted by sneezing may find fertile ground. And we have the ability to travel around the globe in less than a day and share germs widely.
But a look at the origins of COVID19 reveals that other forces may be in play. In the past century we have escalated our demands upon nature, such that today, we are losing species at a rate unknown since the dinosaurs, along with half of life on earth, went extinct 65 million years ago. This rapid dismantling of life on earth owes primarily to habitat loss, which occurs mostly from growing crops and raising livestock for people. With fewer places to live and fewer food sources to feed on, animals find food and shelter where people are, and that can lead to disease spread.
Another major cause of species loss is climate change, which can also change where animals and plants live and affect where diseases may occur. Historically, we have grown as a species in partnership with the plants and animals we live with. So, when we change the rules of the game by drastically changing the climate and life on earth, we have to expect that it will affect our health.

DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT THE TRANSMISSION OF CORONAVIRUS?
We don’t have direct evidence that climate change is influencing the spread of COVID-19, but we do know that climate change alters how we relate to other species on Earth and that matters to our health and our risk for infections.
As the planet heats up, animals big and small, on land and in the sea, are headed to the poles to get out of the heat. That means animals are coming into contact with other animals they normally wouldn’t, and that creates an opportunity for pathogens to get into new hosts.
Many of the root causes of climate change also increase the risk of pandemics. Deforestation, which occurs mostly for agricultural purposes, is the largest cause of habitat loss worldwide. Loss of habitat forces animals to migrate and potentially contact other animals or people and share germs. Large livestock farms can also serve as a source for spillover of infections from animals to people.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND COVID-19 SPREAD
Today, worldwide, there is an apparent increase in many infectious, new and resurgent vector-borne communicable diseases, including some newly-circulating ones (COVID-19 virus). This reflects the combined impacts of rapid demographic, environmental, social, technological and other changes in our ways of-living. Climate change will also affect infectious disease occurrence.
Temperature which is a product of climate change has a great role on infectious diseases as Earth gets warmer. The impacts of climate change on the coronavirus are unknown, but research related to other illnesses suggest that the risk of pandemics is growing as rising temperatures ignite animal migrations and other changes.
The COVID-19 virus continues to spread even as the first hints of spring begin to appear across the Northern Hemisphere. It's true that in temperate parts of the world, like the United States, Europe and much of Asia, flu season tends to spike in the winter and drop off in the spring. And some other types of coronaviruses, which have been around longer and been better studied than COVID-19, have also exhibited seasonal patterns.

COVID-19, being a novel disease, still holds more questions than answers. Scientists aren't sure what kinds of patterns to expect as it spreads or how it might be affected by weather and climate. Confirmed reports of the coronavirus have now topped 100,000 cases worldwide, with no signs of slowing down. More than 3,000 people around the globe have already died, with high rate in Spain, Italy, USA and etc.
Even if it does turn out to have some seasonal components in the future, that effect will likely be high this year. Since it's a new disease with very little immunity built up in the human population, it will likely continue to spread quickly.

As the Earth continues to warm, many scientists expect to see changes in the timing, geography and intensity of disease outbreaks around the world. Climate change, along with other environmental disturbances, could help facilitate the rise of more brand-new diseases, like COVID-19.
Study has found that the new coronavirus, COVID 19, didn't spread as efficiently in warmer and more humid regions of the world as it did in colder areas. It is found that 90% of the COVID 19 infections occurred in areas that are between 3 to 17oC and with an absolute humidity of 4 to 9 grams per cubic meter (g/m3).

In countries with an average temperature greater than 18oC and an absolute humidity greater than 9 g/m3, the number of COVID-19 cases is less than 6% of the global cases (Africa countries).
This suggests "that the transmission humidity especially might play a role, given that most of the transmission of COVID-19 has happened in relatively less humid areas. But that doesn't mean that when the temperature increases around the world, social distancing will be obsolete and people will once again pack into bars and concerts like sardines.

WHAT NIGERIANS MIGHT EXPECT IN THE RAINING SEASON TO COME.
With over 10,000 cases of COVID-19 being reported in regions with average temperatures of 18oC, for most of the Africa country, the effect of humidity on the spread of the coronavirus is slowing the spread until April/May when the temperature would decrease as the rain set in and the levels of COVID-19 will start to increase above 9 g/m3 of humidity.

"Therefore its implication will be high in areas such as in the Sourthern, Eastern and western part of the country where the temperature would drop between 18-23oC. So the chances of increasing the spread of COVID-19 due to these environmental factors would be increase across these areas. It's unreasonable, I think, at this point to expect that the virus will quote-on-quote disappear sooner.

ACTION PLAN
Climate change has already made conditions more favorable to the spread of some infectious diseases and we don’t yet have a sense of what the changing weather will mean for COVID-19 and so we shouldn’t rely upon warmer weather to curtail transmissions. We need to do everything we can right now to slow the spread of this disease, and that means we need to follow the advice that public health experts are telling us and practice social distancing and good hand hygiene, among other actions.

WHAT MORE CAN WE BE DOING TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF COVID 19?
Our elected officials and federal government should prioritize and invest more in public health. South Korea has tested 12,000-15,000 people in a day. The Nigeria government should be able to do the same, but we are currently unable to because of our slow response and decisions to not invest in testing capacities.
Public health funding in the Nigeria in recent years has gone down substantially and no efforts has been made to upgrade response leadership despite the high, known risk of pandemics from emerging infectious diseases. There are fewer tangible resources and fewer experts who know how to deal with a crisis. We’re in a position of playing catch up because we’ve underfunded the public health infrastructure that is necessary to respond to this pandemic.
We will likely spend more than a trillion naira to try and deal with this crisis. If we chose to spend more on preventing disease in the first place, we’d likely see a much healthier population, and more prepared, resilient systems for dealing with something like COVID-19 when it happens.
A silver lining of the mess unfolding in front of us could be a stronger recognition that after-the-fact actions are not sufficient in protecting us. We know why these epidemics happen and we can do more to prevent them. We’ve had a few shots over the bow here COVID, Ebola, Malaria etc. We need to hear what nature is trying to tell us, which is clear: let’s be smarter about how we do business with the biosphere and stop disrupting the climate we depend on.

WHAT ACTIONS CAN WE TAKE TO PREVENT FUTURE OUTBREAKS?
We can make many smart investments to avert another outbreak. Federal, state, and local agencies can support public health leadership and science, we can provide more funding for needed research, early response to outbreaks, and supplies for testing. And we can do much more to control the illegal wildlife trade.
We also need to take climate action to prevent the next pandemic. For example, preventing deforestation—a root cause of climate change—can help stem biodiversity loss as well as slow animal migrations that can increase risk of infectious disease spread. The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa probably occurred in part because bats, which carried the disease, had been forced to move into new habitats because the forests they used to live in had been cut down for firewood.
Rethinking our agricultural practices, including those that rely on raising tens of millions of animals in close quarters, can prevent transmissions between animals and spillover into human populations.

CHALLENGE FOR RESEARCH
Figuring out what those changes in spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria will look like is difficult — especially for directly transmitted diseases like COVID-19, which spreads easily from one person to another.
There's a great deal of research about climate and vector-borne diseases — these are illnesses that are transmitted to humans by other animals. But it's much harder to research climate impacts on human-to-human disease transmission.

References
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29/03/2020

ADDRESS BY H.E. MUHAMMADU BUHARI, PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA ON THE PANDEMIC SUNDAY 29TH MARCH, 2020

1. Fellow Nigerians,

2. From the first signs that Coronavirus, or COVID-19 was turning into an epidemic and was officially declared a world-wide emergency, the Federal Government started planning preventive, containment and curative measures in the event the disease hits Nigeria.

3. The whole instruments of government are now mobilized to confront what has now become both a health emergency and an economic crisis.

4. Nigeria, unfortunately, confirmed its first case on 27th February 2020. Since then, we have seen the number of confirmed cases rise slowly.

5. By the morning of March 29th, 2020, the total confirmed cases within Nigeria had risen to ninety-seven.

6. Regrettably, we also had our first fatality, a former employee of PPMC, who died on 23rd March 2020. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family in this very difficult time. We also pray for quick recovery for those infected and undergoing treatment.

7. As of today, COVID-19 has no cure. Scientists around the world are working very hard to develop a vaccine.

8. We are in touch with these institutions as they work towards a solution that will be certified by international and local medical authorities within the shortest possible time.

9. For now, the best and most efficient way to avoid getting infected is through regular hygienic and sanitary practices as well as social distancing.

10. As individuals, we remain the greatest weapon to fight this pandemic. By washing our hands regularly with clean water and soap, disinfecting frequently used surfaces and areas, coughing into a tissue or elbow and strictly adhering to infection prevention control measures in health facilities, we can contain this virus.

11. Since the outbreak was reported in China, our Government has been monitoring the situation closely and studying the various responses adopted by other countries.

12. Indeed, the Director General of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) was one of ten global health leaders invited by the World Health Organisation to visit China and understudy their response approach. I am personally very proud of Dr Ihekweazu for doing this on behalf of all Nigerians.

13. Since his return, the NCDC has been implementing numerous strategies and programs in Nigeria to ensure that the adverse impact of this virus on our country is minimized. We ask all Nigerians to support the work the Federal Ministry of Health and NCDC are doing, led by the Presidential Task Force.

14. Although we have adopted strategies used globally, our implementation programs have been tailored to reflect our local realities.

15. In Nigeria, we are taking a two-step approach.

16. First, to protect the lives of our fellow Nigerians and residents living here and second, to preserve the livelihoods of workers and business owners to ensure their families get through this very difficult time in dignity and with hope and peace of mind.

17. To date, we have introduced healthcare measures, border security, fiscal and monetary policies in our response. We shall continue to do so as the situation unfolds.

18. Some of these measures will surely cause major inconveniences to many citizens. But these are sacrifices we should all be willing and ready to make for the greater good of our country.

19. In Nigeria’s fight against COVID-19, there is no such thing as an overreaction or an under reaction. It is all about the right reaction by the right agencies and trained experts.

20. Accordingly, as a Government, we will continue to rely on guidance of our medical professionals and experts at the Ministry of Health, NCDC and other relevant agencies through this difficult time.

21. I therefore urge all citizens to adhere to their guidelines as they are released from time to time.

22. As we are all aware, Lagos and Abuja have the majority of confirmed cases in Nigeria. Our focus therefore remains to urgently and drastically contain these cases, and to support other states and regions in the best way we can.

23. This is why we provided an initial intervention of fifteen billion Naira (N15b) to support the national response as we fight to contain and control the spread.

24. We also created a Presidential Task Force (PTF) to develop a workable National Response Strategy that is being reviewed on a daily basis as the requirements change. This strategy takes international best practices but adopts them to suit our unique local circumstances.

25. Our goal is to ensure all States have the right support and manpower to respond immediately.

26. So far, in Lagos and Abuja, we have recruited hundreds of ad-hoc staff to man our call centers and support our tracing and testing efforts.

27. I also requested, through the Nigeria Governors Forum, for all State Governments to nominate Doctors and Nurses who will be trained by the NCDC and Lagos State Government on tactical and operational response to the virus in case it spreads to other states.

28. This training will also include medical representatives from our armed forces, paramilitary and security and intelligence agencies.

29. As a nation, our response must be guided, systematic and professional. There is a need for consistency across the nation. All inconsistencies in policy guidelines between Federal and State agencies will be eliminated.

30. As I mentioned earlier, as at this morning we had ninety-seven confirmed cases. Majority of these are in Lagos and Abuja. All the confirmed cases are getting the necessary medical care.

31. Our agencies are currently working hard to identify cases and people these patients have been in contact with.

32. The few confirmed cases outside Lagos and Abuja are linked to persons who have travelled from these centres.

33. We are therefore working to ensure such inter state and intercity movements are restricted to prevent further spread.

34. Based on the advice of the Federal Ministry of Health and the NCDC, I am directing the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days with effect from 11pm on Monday, 30th March 2020. This restriction will also apply to Ogun State due to its close proximity to Lagos and the high traffic between the two States.

35. All citizens in these areas are to stay in their homes. Travel to or from other states should be postponed. All businesses and offices within these locations should be fully closed during this period.

36. The Governors of Lagos and Ogun States as well as the Minister of the FCT have been notified. Furthermore, heads of security and intelligence agencies have also been briefed.

37. We will use this containment period to identify, trace and isolate all individuals that have come into contact with confirmed cases. We will ensure the treatment of confirmed cases while restricting further spread to other States.

38. This order does not apply to hospitals and all related medical establishments as well as organizations in health care related manufacturing and distribution.

39. Furthermore, commercial establishments such as;

a. food processing, distribution and retail companies;

b. petroleum distribution and retail entities,

c. power generation, transmission and distribution companies; and

d. private security companies are also exempted.

40. Although these establishments are exempted, access will be restricted and monitored.

41. Workers in telecommunication companies, broadcasters, print and electronic media staff who can prove they are unable to work from home are also exempted.

42. All seaports in Lagos shall remain operational in accordance with the guidelines I issued earlier. Vehicles and drivers conveying essential cargoes from these Ports to other parts of the country will be screened thoroughly before departure by the Ports Health Authority.

43. Furthermore, all vehicles conveying food and other essential humanitarian items into these locations from other parts of the country will also be screened thoroughly before they are allowed to enter these restricted areas.

44. Accordingly, the Hon. Minister of Health is hereby directed to redeploy all Port Health Authority employees previously stationed in the Lagos and Abuja Airports to key roads that serve as entry and exit points to these restricted zones.

45. Movements of all passenger aircraft, both commercial and private jets, are hereby suspended. Special permits will be issued on a needs basis.

46. We are fully aware that such measures will cause much hardship and inconvenience to many citizens. But this is a matter of life and death, if we look at the dreadful daily toll of deaths in Italy, France and Spain.

47. However, we must all see this as our national and patriotic duty to control and contain the spread of this virus. I will therefore ask all of us affected by this order to put aside our personal comfort to safeguard ourselves and fellow human beings. This common enemy can only be controlled if we all come together and obey scientific and medical advice.

48. As we remain ready to enforce these measures, we should see this as our individual contribution in the war against COVID-19. Many other countries have taken far stricter measures in a bid to control the spread of the virus with positive results.

49. For residents of satellite and commuter towns and communities around Lagos and Abuja whose livelihoods will surely be affected by some of these restrictive measures, we shall deploy relief materials to ease their pains in the coming weeks.

50. Furthermore, although schools are closed, I have instructed the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development to work with State Governments in developing a strategy on how to sustain the school feeding program during this period without compromising our social distancing policies. The Minister will be contacting the affected States and agree on detailed next steps.

51. Furthermore, I have directed that a three month repayment moratorium for all TraderMoni, MarketMoni and FarmerMoni loans be implemented with immediate effect.

52. I have also directed that a similar moratorium be given to all Federal Government funded loans issued by the Bank of Industry, Bank of Agriculture and the Nigeria Export Import Bank.

53. For on-lending facilities using capital from international and multilateral development partners, I have directed our development financial institutions to engage these development partners and negotiate concessions to ease the pains of the borrowers.

54. For the most vulnerable in our society, I have directed that the conditional cash transfers for the next two months be paid immediately. Our Internally displaced persons will also receive two months of food rations in the coming weeks.

55. We also call on all Nigerians to take personal responsibility to support those who are vulnerable within their communities, helping them with whatever they may need.

56. As we all pray for the best possible outcome, we shall continue planning for all eventualities.

57. This is why I directed that all Federal Government Stadia, Pilgrims camps and other facilities be converted to isolation centers and makeshift hospitals.

58. My fellow Nigerians, as a Government, we will avail all necessary resources to support the response and recovery. We remain committed to do whatever it takes to confront COVID-19 in our country.

59. We are very grateful to see the emerging support of the private sector and individuals to the response as well as our development partners.

60. At this point, I will ask that all contributions and donations be coordinated and centralized to ensure efficient and impactful spending. The Presidential Task Force remains the central coordinating body on the COVID-19 response.

61. I want to assure you all that Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies with a role to play in the outbreak response are working hard to bring this virus under control.

62. Every nation in the world is challenged at this time. But we have seen countries where citizens have come together to reduce the spread of the virus.

63. I will therefore implore you again to strictly comply with the guidelines issued and also do your bit to support Government and the most vulnerable in your communities.

64. I will take this opportunity to thank all our public health workforce, health care workers, port health authorities and other essential staff on the frontlines of the response for their dedication and commitment. You are true heroes.

65. I thank you all for listening. May God continue to bless and protect us all.

President Muhammadu Buhari
29th March 2020.