23/08/2026
SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY 🌧 - HABAGAT
According to the latest 4-day forecast model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an active Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring continuous and heavy rainfall across major portions of the country over the next 96 hours.
The most critical impact will be felt in western sections of Luzon, where accumulated rainfall could exceed 300 mm.
4-DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FORECAST (ECMWF)
Valid Period: August 26, 2026 (12:00 AM) – August 30, 2026 (12:00 AM)
🟣 EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL (300mm+)
▪️ Luzon: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
🔴 HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL (200mm – 300mm)
▪️ Luzon: La Union, Benguet
🟠 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL (100mm – 200mm)
▪️ Luzon: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Northern Palawan
▪️ Visayas: Antique, Southern Iloilo
🟡 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL (50mm – 100mm)
▪️ Luzon: Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Northern Quezon, Laguna, Camarines Sur, Albay, Romblon, Central and Southern Palawan
▪️ Visayas: Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Central Iloilo
UNDERSTANDING THE RAINFALL CATEGORIES & IMPACTS
▪️ 300mm+ (Purple - Extreme Risk): In many western coastal and mountain areas, 300 mm of rain is equivalent to roughly two full months' worth of average historical rainfall concentrated into just 4 days. This volume creates an extreme risk of severe flash flooding, river overflows, and major landslides.
▪️ 200mm – 300mm (Red - High Risk): A massive volume of rain that will quickly saturate mountain slopes and low-lying plains, bringing widespread flooding and dangerous landslide conditions (especially in highland areas like Benguet).
▪️ 100mm – 200mm (Orange - Moderate to High Risk): Significant rainfall spread over 4 days that will cause river levels to swell, urban drainage overflows, and localized flash floods during sudden monsoon surges.
▪️ 50mm – 100mm (Yellow - Low to Moderate Risk): Moderate accumulation that may cause minor street flooding or localized water pooling, particularly during heavy afternoon or evening downpours.
SAFETY & PREPAREDNESS ADVISORY
▪️ High Landslide & Flood Hazard: Because soil is already saturated from previous rainfall, new rain will turn into immediate runoff.
▪️ Prepare for Disruptions: Residents in high-risk areas should prepare emergency bags, monitor local water levels, and heed early evacuation notices from local DRRMOs.
SOURCE: ECMWF Rain Accumulation via Windy
Forecast Period: August 26 – 30, 2026 (12:00 AM)
