03/11/2023
THE PERFECT STORM : A closer look at the barangay election results of the biggest barangay in the Bicol Region.
Juan Francis âTatoâ Mendoza won as punong barangay of Concepcion Pequeña, Naga City, in the recently held barangay elections on October 30, 2023, by getting 46.64% of the total votes casted. Mendoza edged out Jewelin âWewinâ Regmalos, the incumbent punong barangay, who got 41.63%.
Regmalosâs actual election result is 4.36% lower than the survey result done a day before the election (i.e., 46%). On the other hand, Mendozaâs actual election number was significantly higher than his poll survey result of 13.5%.
Mendoza won by 5.01% of the votes against Regmalos, contrary to the result of the survey conducted on the eve of the election, that had Regmalos leading by a wide margin. So, ANYARE?
Some takeaways on the poll survey vs. actual election results for punong barangay
- Mendoza was able to win by getting the bulk of the votes of the âundecidedâ and those who ârefused to answer,â which totaled to 34.4%.
- It can now be concluded that the reason for the unusually high numbers of âundecidedâ and those who ârefused to answerâ was their leaning towards Mendoza, which could be a result of the confluence of various factors including, but not limited to:
i. The desire for change. The Regmaloses, from the father to the son, have held the post of punong barangay for decades now dating back to the Marcos era, with only one term interruption. The desire for change could have been a long time coming.
ii. The steady rise to popularity of the Mendozas in local politics. Fortunato âTatoâ Mendoza, the father of Francis Mendoza, had ran thrice against two sitting mayors of the city, including the current, albeit unsuccessfully but with decent election result numbers. In the recently held mayoralty race, the older Mendoza won against the incumbent mayor in Concepcion Pequeña, and
iii. Brilliant election campaign. Francis Mendoza was able to establish rapport with the voters. His messaging was on point communicating fresh and new ideas on local governance. He connected with the voters. He likewise, benefited from his fatherâs political machinery, which has remained in place, and as it turned out, remains to be a potent force in local politics. Capitalizing on âTato,â his fatherâs moniker, was a smart move. The campaign was able to create synergy among electoral variables. It was the perfect storm for Mendoza; one from which Regmalos could not escape unscathed.
- There were Regmalos voters who had converted to Mendoza and Salak on the actual day of the election. Salak likewise got votes from the âundecidedâ and those who ârefused to answer.â
- Regmalosâs solid votes could be pegged at around 40%, while that of Mendozaâs at around 20-25% based on the returns of the poll survey and the actual election. However, in the 2023 barangay elections in Concepcion Pequeña, the biggest barangay in the Bicol Region, the solid votes did not determine the outcome of the election for punong barangay. The swing votes, consisting of around 25-30%, did.
