ANZED Online Trading Consultancy

17/05/2016

17/05/2016

Was expectations higher?

The initial reaction was the dollar moving higher in the USDJPY after the MoM CPi came in at 0.4% MoM. But the YoY figures failed to move above the expectations and ex food and energy declined from 2.2% YoY last month to 2.1% this month. We are now seeing the USDJPY tumble lower.

Technically, the USDJPY moved above the 61.8% of the move down from the April 28th high at the 109.46 but failed. This was the 2nd look above that retracement level (last Friday, after the better than expected retail sales and Michigan sentiment, the pair rallied above but found sellers). The pair has moved below the 50% of the days rally higher at 109.26 (see 5-minute chart below). The close from yesterday was a 109.01. The low on this move has dipped to 109.16.



Industrial production and capacity utilization will be released at 9:15 AM ET. Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.3% vs. -0.6% last month. capacity utilization is expected to increase to 75.0% vs. 74.8%.

17/05/2016

http://www.wsj.com/public/page/news-currency-currencies-trading.html #

Live currency news and updates from The Wall Street Journal. See today's exchange rates for dollar, euro, pound and foreign money.

15/01/2015

INVESTING
Switzerland Ambushes the Global Economy

The Swiss National Bank's shock move today to stop intervening in the foreign exchange market all but guarantees the European Central Bank will finally introduce quantitative easing when it meets Jan. 22. Switzerland is surrendering before a wave of post-QE money fleeing the euro threatens to make a mockery of its currency policy. It's also capitulating as slumping oil brings global deflation ever closer.

It's an astonishing U-turn. Just two days ago SNB Vice President Jean-Pierre Danthine told Swiss broadcaster RTS that “we’re convinced that the cap on the franc must remain the pillar of our monetary policy.” He added, though, that it was "very possible" that QE would make defending the threshold more difficult. It seems highly probable that the ECB has winked about its policy intentions to its Swiss counterparts.

The ensuing whipsaw in the currency market is unprecedented. The franc immediately appreciated almost 30 percent against the currencies of the Group of Ten industrialized nations, and surged to a record against the euro:

Intraday
The Swiss central bank has capped the franc's value since September 2011, intervening to sell its own currency whenever it threatened to strengthen beyond 1.20 per euro. The policy was designed to protect the economy from safe-haven seeking investors propelling the currency higher, and trashing exports.

Many Swiss financiers were affronted by the peg in the first place. The nation's private banking edifice was built on the principle of respect for private property and free movement of capital; market manipulation didn't sit well with that philosophy.

At a hastily arranged press conference, SNB President Thomas Jordan declined to comment on whether he'd been in touch with other central banks, saying that keeping the cap no longer made sense and that its end had to be sprung on financial markets. Judging by the televised feed, he isn't a particularly happy bunny today.

The official explanation posted on the central bank's website is that the Swiss economy "was able to take advantage of this phase to adjust to the new situation," and that the dollar's surge has offset euro weakness. Swiss exporters aren't convinced: Swatch Group AG Chief Executive Officer Nick Hayek immediately called it a "tsunami for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country." Exports of Rolexes and other watches account for more than 10 percent of the country's exports.

There are a handful of other immediate losers from the move. Any trader who was short the Swiss franc this morning is probably still in a state of shock; Forex.com, a currency trading website, suspended trading in the Swiss currency after the central bank announcement. Staffers at the Swiss central bank's Singapore branch, which opened in the middle of 2013 to replace the currency-defending night shift in Zurich, will probably be relocating.

Less certain are the implications for lenders including OTP Bank, Hungary's largest lender, Vienna-based Erste Group Bank, and Italy's Unicredit, who lent about $14 billion to Hungarians in foreign-currency mortgages prior to the financial crisis, the bulk of them denominated in Swiss francs. A November law obliges banks to convert those loans into forints, and the Hungarian central bank arranged a foreign-currency transfer at that time to cover those conversion needs. The law obliges banks to switch at about 257 forints per franc; today's whipsaw puts that exchange rate at 310, meaning any bank that left itself exposed is facing a huge loss.

In an accompanying move, the Swiss central bank will now charge banks 0.75 percent for the privilege of depositing money with it. In the bond market, investors in Swiss government bonds are getting negative yields on any securities with maturities of nine years or less; at one point this morning, your reward for lending to Switzerland for a decade dropped to 0.033 percent, or so close to zero that it really makes no difference.

In the past five years, Swiss consumer prices have dropped by an average of 0.1 percent; the most recent figures showed annual inflation dropped by 0.3 percent in December. It's clear from the central bank's comments that it sees a worsening global deflationary backdrop; keeping its currency weaker hasn't produced the higher prices suggested by economic theory.

For the rest of the world, today's move confirms that deflation is a clear and present threat to the global economy. Central bankers everywhere should be re-reading Ben Bernanke's November 2002 speech "Deflation: Making Sure `It' Doesn't Happen Here" -- and reviewing their policies to make sure they're doing everything they can to boost growth and make consumers and companies more confident about their economic futures.

09/01/2015

The euro zone slides into deflation
The good and the bad

TODAY’S figures from Eurostat confirmed what the markets had expected following reports already out from Spain and Germany: consumer prices are now falling across the euro zone. Inflation turned negative in December, with prices down by 0.2% on their level in December 2013. This is the first time that the euro area has experienced deflation since 2009, when headline inflation went below zero for five months (from June till October).

As was the case in 2009, the slide into deflation has been caused by the oil-price slump as it feeds through to energy prices. “Core” inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and to***co), actually edged up in December to 0.8%, from 0.7% in November.

Deflation can be good or bad, depending upon what is driving it and how long it lasts. A short burst of deflation associated with an oil-price fall is good, since it acts as a tax cut, boosting consumers’ real purchasing power. That’s a timely boost for the moribund euro-zone economy. Although the single-currency club appears to have avoided outright recession in 2014, growth became so anaemic that it made little difference. Purchasing-manager indices of activity in the services and manufacturing sectors in the final three months of 2014, compiled by data-firm Markit, were the weakest since the third quarter of 2013, suggesting that growth remained feeble in late 2014.

Deflation is bad, if it persists and people and businesses come to expect prices to fall. That can lead to slacker spending since it makes sense to postpone purchases and pay lower prices at a later juncture. A prolonged period of deflation would be crippling for the euro zone because both public and private debt are extremely high in parts of the region. The real burden of debt, which is generally fixed in nominal terms, rises when prices fall.

The worry about the euro zone slipping into deflation is that it could reinforce already low inflation expectations or lower them further. A brief burst of good deflation driven by the oil-price fall could become a sustained period of bad deflation based on underlying weakness in the euro-zone economy and expectations that prices may continue to fall.

The onset of deflation in the euro zone thus has both a bright and a dark side. The way to accentuate the bright side and to avoid the dark side is to provide firmer assurance to businesses and individuals that the period of falling prices will be short-lived and that inflation will return towards the European Central Bank’s objective of just below 2%. The clearest way in which the ECB can show that it means business would be to announce a big quantitative-easing programme when its governing council meets on January 22nd.

24/12/2014

The importance of implied volatility
http://offers.fxpartner.net/how-can-the-vix-make-you-rich-in-2015/

There is a reason why the Forex market is so attractive to wealthy traders and hedge funds… In fact, it’s a well-kept secret among the trading

23/12/2014

There is no safe route to massive success. Period. In Episode 314 of The Traders Podcast, your host Rob Booker addresses a tremendous e-mail question from Dave in Columbus. Dave asks if it’s possible

23/12/2014

The Pound got hit by worse than expected data, falling against the greenback down to 1.5550, measly 10 pips below this year low posted last Thursday. UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.7%, while between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.6%, revised down…

23/12/2014

Picture, giving up on your 8 hours labour in trading at home most probably in your night wears and slippers, totally out of touch with the world outside and the problems. In reality, If you’re here reading this it is possible that you have. Although you don’t have to leave your everyday job nor sacr…

07/04/2014

Trader and Investor Perception vs Reality
Sam Seiden

Online Trading Academy, Chief Education, Products, and Services Officer
Have you ever felt the need to be on guard when buying a car, major appliance, new home, or anything that involves a sales person? Or, have you ever had a career in sales which means spending weeks if not months in advanced training sessions where the entire goal of the training is how to convince someone that they should pay $1000 for something that is really worth $200. When you’re the seller, it’s almost like you’re trained to speak in deceptive code. And once you master this new language, people you are selling to naturally over pay which means profits for you. Trading is no different. The goal is to buy low and sell high which is what I often write about with our supply and demand strategy. To buy low (at demand) however, someone needs be convinced that whatever you’re buying is worth selling at that price. Conversely, when you sell high (at supply), someone needs to be convinced that what you are selling is worth buying at that high price (retail prices). The one who ends up on the right side of that equation and ends up consistently profitable is the one who can decipher “code” and understand the reality of the situation. Let me decipher some code for you here in hopes that it will have a positive impact on your financial life, and then some…

Investor Perception 1) Your broker tells you, “This is a good investment.” Most of the time that really means it’s a better investment for the broker who is actually selling you the stock out of company inventory. Think about it, the average person buys stocks. Wall Street’s primary business is selling stocks. This is not to say all brokers are bad, there are some good ones. The point is, do your homework and make sure you are buying low (at demand) with the opportunity to sell high. The next time anyone suggests you should buy a stock, ask them if they are buying it also.

2) When you see an advertisement to open a Spot Forex account and the ad says “Free Trading, No Commissions.” While that sounds like free trading, it really means the broker gets paid in the spread which is typically much more expensive than commissions. When you open an account, make sure you understand the spread and real cost of trading.

3) When price in a Forex market reaches a key supply level meaning it is about to turn lower, have you noticed that the news is typically good and the spread widens? This creates the illusion/perception that the trader should buy when in fact, the smart money is selling. Have you noticed that the hardest trades to take emotionally often turn out to be the best trades? There is a reason why… The next time price reaches a supply zone in the FX market and the spread widens, understand that this is happening because it’s a good level and the bank has to price in their profit with a wider spread. Hint: Good level plus wider spread typically equals strong opportunity.

4) When the bid on your level 2 screen is ten times the size of the offer, the news is outstanding, yet price can’t move higher, this really means banks/institutions are selling and price is likely just about to collapse. A bank, institution, or market maker is going to create a bullish picture or perception when they have a big sell order to fill. They need many retail buyers to fill a large sell order. It’s not that an institution is bad or doing something wrong. They want to sell so they do what they can to convince people whatever they are selling is worth buying at the price they want to sell at. Isn’t this what almost any retail seller does in any market? Isn’t this what Costco and Walmart do?

5) Your financial planner says, “Annuities are a smart investment for you.” This again typically means they are a great investment for them.

This code is not limited to trading and investing. Let’s decipher some more code…

6) When your wife asks, “Does this dress make me look heavy?” What that really means is, “Tell me I look thin in this dress.”

7) When your boyfriend says, “it’s not you, it’s me.” It’s really you.

8) For young readers, when your mom or dad asks “Is today garbage day?” This really means, “Take out the garbage, now.”

9) When you’re driving to a restaurant with your husband and you ask him if he knows where he is going and he says, “Yes, I think so.” This really means he has no idea.

Being able to decipher code in the markets and in life always gets you closer to the truth which means more money in your pocket and healthier relationships. Learn to know the difference…

Hope this was helpful. Have a great day.

Sam Seiden – [email protected]

02/04/2014

Anzed Consultancy is back!! with a website under construction with the same name and a office location in safari mall bahria town islamabad. It is starting its training sessions very soon for people interested to learn to trade forex trading professionally!! on a manual location