Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din

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Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din Official Page of Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din

Senior Economist | Macro-Economics & Public Policy Expert | Author & Columnist | Urban Economics Researcher | Exploring Pakistan's economic reforms, trade, and development. ❖ A senior economist and lead researcher with around 20 years expertise in economic research; data analytics; quantitative and qualitative research; designing, developing and implementing econometric models and frameworks; translating data into evidence-based plan, strategy and policy; writing and reviewing technical reports; as well as research project/ program management and implementation.
❖ An optimistic, thoughtful, compassionate, highly organized, detail oriented, transparent, adaptive, self-managed, inclusive, collaborative, and innovative leader with a profound dedication towards the economic security; economic development; urban and regional development; strategic and spatial planning; public policy; socio-economics equity; and data science and analytics.

Pakistan's 48% regional poverty share is largely a statistical artifact of the World Bank's MENAAP reclassification and ...
23/10/2026

Pakistan's 48% regional poverty share is largely a statistical artifact of the World Bank's MENAAP reclassification and its large population weight. The actual increase in poverty is driven by compounding macroeconomic shocks, including COVID-19, the 2022 floods, high inflation, and stabilization policies. Addressing these challenges requires regular household surveys, protected bottom-tier support, and close monitoring of vulnerable remittance flows from the Gulf.

Read my Full Opinion Artcile [Link in First Comment]

2026

Why is land more expensive in some locations than others?The answer lies partly in the economic value of location.Bid-Re...
05/10/2026

Why is land more expensive in some locations than others?

The answer lies partly in the economic value of location.

Bid-Rent Theory explains how different land users compete for locations based on how much they are willing and able to pay for accessibility.

Businesses often bid more for central locations because proximity to customers, workers, markets and transport creates economic value.

As accessibility changes with distance, so does land value and land use.

But today's cities are more complex.

Multiple employment centres, transport networks, specialised clusters, zoning and agglomeration economies mean that urban land values are increasingly shaped by accessibility to opportunities, not simply distance from the C*D.

For urban economists and planners, this distinction matters.

Cities are not merely physical spaces. They are spatial expressions of markets, incentives and policy.

— Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din
Senior Urban Economist | Economic Planner | Researcher

Dr. GM Urban Insights
Cities are Outcome of Markets and Policy.

**Pakistan has a $40 billion investment pipeline. But how much will actually become investment?**$40 billion sounds impr...
30/09/2026

**Pakistan has a $40 billion investment pipeline. But how much will actually become investment?**

$40 billion sounds impressive. But a **project on a list is not the same as capital deployed on the ground.**

The real test for SIFC is:

→ How much reaches financial close?
→ How much capital actually enters Pakistan?
→ How quickly do projects become operational?
→ What do they deliver in **exports, productivity and jobs**?
→ How much do they strengthen Pakistan’s **foreign-exchange capacity**?

The investment debate must shift:

**From counting projects → to measuring outcomes.**

SIFC can help remove bureaucratic and coordination bottlenecks. But sustained investment also depends on deeper reforms in **energy costs, taxation, regulation, policy predictability, infrastructure and institutions.**

My latest Op-Ed examines why Pakistan’s challenge is not simply building a bigger pipeline—but **converting investment potential into productive capital and measurable economic outcomes.**

📌 **Full article link in the first comment.**

**What should be SIFC’s primary KPI: commitments, actual FDI, financial closures, or economic outcomes?**

When does a successful city become too successful?Thailand offers an interesting lesson.🔹 89% of Thailand’s GDP growth b...
28/09/2026

When does a successful city become too successful?

Thailand offers an interesting lesson.

🔹 89% of Thailand’s GDP growth between 2010–2020 came from urban areas.
🔹 Bangkok is roughly 27 times larger than Chiang Mai, the country’s second city.
🔹 Yet congestion alone costs Bangkok 7–10% of its gross regional product every year.

That last number is striking.

Firms continue to pay Bangkok’s high rents and wages, which suggests that its agglomeration benefits are substantial. But part of those benefits is being lost to congestion rather than converted into higher wages, productivity and profits.

This is essentially Henderson’s optimal city-size argument with a number attached: agglomeration creates powerful economic benefits—but beyond a certain point, congestion and other diseconomies can begin to erode them.

The World Bank’s interesting recommendation is not to spread investment thinly across every secondary city, but to focus on a selected few.

That aligns with New Economic Geography: a secondary city needs sufficient market access and labour-market depth before it becomes a credible alternative location for firms.

The challenge? Choosing growth poles requires strong state capacity—and the discipline to stick with the strategy.

For Karachi, Lahore and Riyadh, the question is highly relevant:

How large should a city become before agglomeration economies start giving way to congestion diseconomies?

The answer is not simply decentralization. It is about building an efficient urban system—strong primary cities alongside a small number of secondary centres capable of achieving genuine economic scale.

📌 Source: World Bank, Thailand Cities of the Future: Urban Foundations for a High-Income Economy, 22 September 2026.

🚗 **CITIES DON’T ALWAYS GROW IN CIRCLES. SOMETIMES, THEY GROW IN WEDGES.**Homer Hoyt’s **Wedge or Radial Sector Theory (...
26/09/2026

🚗 **CITIES DON’T ALWAYS GROW IN CIRCLES. SOMETIMES, THEY GROW IN WEDGES.**

Homer Hoyt’s **Wedge or Radial Sector Theory (1939)** explains how urban development expands outward from the **C*D along major transport corridors**.

🚆 Transport corridors → Accessibility
📍 Accessibility → Land-value differences
🏘️ Land values → Location choices
🏙️ Location choices → Urban sectors

This helps explain why **industrial, commercial and residential activities often cluster along specific corridors**.

💡 **Key insight:**
**Accessibility shapes land markets—and land markets shape cities.**

Although modern cities are increasingly polycentric, Hoyt’s insight remains highly relevant to understanding **urban spatial structure**.

🏙️ **CONCENTRIC ZONE THEORY: HOW CITIES GROW**Why do cities develop distinct patterns of land use as they expand?Ernest ...
24/09/2026

🏙️ **CONCENTRIC ZONE THEORY: HOW CITIES GROW**

Why do cities develop distinct patterns of land use as they expand?

Ernest W. Burgess (1925) explained urban growth through **five concentric zones**, expanding outward from the **Central Business District (C*D)**.

The model shows how **land values, accessibility, competition and population movement** shape urban spatial structure.

💡 **Key insight:**
**Cities are not static—they continuously evolve as markets, people and accessibility reshape urban space.**

Although modern cities are often polycentric and more complex, the Burgess model remains a useful starting point for understanding **urban spatial structure**.

*Cities are outcomes of markets and policy.*

🏙️ LOCATIONAL EXTERNALITY: WHY LOCATION MATTERSWhy do firms cluster together—and why can the same concentration create b...
23/09/2026

🏙️ LOCATIONAL EXTERNALITY: WHY LOCATION MATTERS

Why do firms cluster together—and why can the same concentration create both productivity gains and urban costs?

Proximity creates externalities: knowledge spillovers, labour pooling, shared inputs and larger markets can raise productivity, while congestion, pollution and higher land prices can impose costs.

💡 Key insight:
The goal is not simply to concentrate economic activity, but to capture the benefits of proximity while managing its costs.

Cities are outcomes of markets and policy.

🏙️ Why do cities make economies more productive?Urbanisation is not simply about having more people in one place. It is ...
20/09/2026

🏙️ Why do cities make economies more productive?

Urbanisation is not simply about having more people in one place. It is about the economic value created by proximity.

When people, firms, talent, infrastructure and ideas come together, cities generate powerful agglomeration economies:

→ Deeper and more diverse labour markets
→ Greater specialisation
→ Knowledge and innovation spillovers
→ Shared infrastructure and services
→ Thicker markets for skills, capital and business
→ Higher productivity and better economic opportunities

But these benefits are not automatic.

They depend on how cities are planned, connected, governed and managed. Poorly planned urban growth can create congestion, housing pressures, infrastructure deficits and inequality—eroding the very productivity advantages that make cities valuable.

The central lesson of urban economics is simple:

«Cities create value not merely by concentrating people, but by enabling them to interact, exchange, specialise and innovate more efficiently.»

That is why urban planning is ultimately economic policy.



Cities are outcome of markets and policy.

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