18/11/2025
The following trends in maritime rates were identified in UNCTAD's "Review of Maritime Transport 2025" publication:
1. The Red Sea crisis drove up spot container freight rates in 2024 with partial relief by year-end.
2. Container freight rates fluctuated into 2025 amid shocks and fleet expansion, with strategic alliances and coordinated capacity management playing a growing role against an increasingly uncertain market outlook
3. Containership charter rates: Rebounding across segments in 2024 and into 2025
(https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2025ch3_en.pdf)
Also, "Uncertainty around China and United States tariff measures as well as capacity realignments, such as the reallocation of surplus trans-Pacific tonnage to other trade lanes (for example, exports to Europe and Latin America, and intra-Asia), are expected to affect market dynamics and exacerbate freight rate volatility." (https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2025ch3_en.pdf)
With specific reference to merchandise trade:
1. Global shipping moves over 80% of the world’s merchandise trade (https://unctad.org/news/shipping-data-unctad-releases-new-seaborne-trade-statistics, UNCTAD April 2025).
2. Distributors rely on markets far and wide to purchase their products.
3. The selling price of imported finished goods is a combination of a) cost of the good, b) the cost to ship the good, and c) any taxes charged by the Government on these goods.
Consumers know the aforementioned three points. However, they typically ignore the freight costs when analysing changes in the selling prices of goods, even though they are aware that the products originate in countries that are thousands of kilometres away. This disregard of the supply chain is evidenced whenever there is a cry against those increasing prices, and every culprit except those responsible for freight costs is identified.
An appreciation of the supply chain and its effect on the selling price is important. The failure of one component of the chain can result in an effect in the freight cost. Can shipping companies absorb these costs? Sure. Do shipping companies absorb these costs? Not always. Thus, credit is due to logistics providers that utilise mitigation measures to minimise increases in shipping costs during these disruptions.
As I learnt in secondary school, a chain is as strong as its weakest link. If one component in the supply chain fails, the entire chain is disrupted. The ability to maintain the supply chain irrespective of disruptions has to be recognised. Moreover, utilising alternative sources for products is an option that must be aggressively pursued. The reality is, there is little that can be done in the short-term. However, for the long-term, both private sector (via sourcing new suppliers) and public sector (via trade agreements) need to work together to address this issue.
Global shipping, moving over 80% of the world’s merchandise trade, is entering a period of fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty, according to UN Trade and Development’s latest Review of Maritime Transport 2025.
After firm growth last year, seaborne trade is expected to stall in 2025, with volumes barely rising (+0.5%).
Long-distance rerouting caused by geopolitical tensions kept ships busier last year with a record of nearly 6% growth in ton-miles.
Full report: ▶️ https://ow.ly/6aa750X1EEu