International Finance Basics

12/11/2025

The global auto industry is rapidly evolving, and the emergence of Chinese manufacturers has created new opportunities and risks for emerging markets.

Read more from the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics: https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-driving-ev-adoption-rates-emerging-economies

03/04/2025

Summary of Impacts , FAQ and International Finance Basics on Global Tariffs announced by Trump on April 3, 2025.

Good we have AI to help decipher how this will affect all of us and how the various below major factors will come into play. No question a degree of uncertainty and ongoing deal making by Trump will define his term.

1. Asia’s Response
Trumps actions have united the Asian powerhouses of China, Japan and Korea in a way never seen possible. How does one monitor the sustainability of its joint retaliatory actions.

These are some of the KPIs that we can ask AI for help on

A. Asia
1. Asian market corrections on the Nikia index, Instead of spiking down to 30,000 from its high of 40,000 will it progressively slide even to 25,000 Covid period levels ?
2. Asian readiness to invest in US plants. After the damage to their export driven economies will they even have money to invest in American plants and how would this help with their rising unemployment ?
3. Asian tolerance of American company services. The US has more service GDP than industrial output yet this has not been in the trade narratives. Yes America is starting to shed Financial jobs but there are still the juggernauts of advertising and online services like Google, Meta, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft that in the extreme can be subject to firewalls. Reliance on Asian markets is from 25% to 35% of income.
4. Is Tesla dead in Asia as a result of this. Few manufacturing companies survive in China. Are these tariffs such an economic hit to Asia that it will take action against TESLA operations and sales there ?
5. Asian positions going forward holding US bond debts . Japan and China are the largest foreign holders of US debt. Over the last couple of years in anticipation of this they have stopped buying US government bonds a T-Bills. Can the extreme of this Asian leverage lead to devaluation of the USD .
6. Acceleration of Intl trade in non USD denominations. China and the BRIC nations already started trading oil and other goods between themselves in their own currencies. Will the US trade war accelerate this long term expectation.
7. Real American worker productivity and systemic waste . Nothing about the tariffs address Americas own waste and poor productivity problems especially in its non essential based economies. America has huge unproductive non essential outflows in a range of wealth imbalances including professional sports, entertainment, gambling etc. Can America survive these indulgences which seriously erode worker productivity as compared to Asian lifetime commitments prioritizing their companies.

May of these factors intersect and there are many more. They include increased reliance on Asian and non American domestic wealth and that broad growth momentum around superior infrastructure. In many modern Asian cities quality of life, and collective wealth far exceed western standards of living.

B. Europe and Western Response
1. Foreign Investment in America . Trump has been quoting trillions of foreign and domestic investment, how much of this is real. How much of this goes away with the tariffs. Is it Trumps plan to negotiate relaxation of tariffs based on individual signed agreements for investments in America and given America’s trade violations will countries put their trust in these ?
2. European united NATO commitment and replacement of US made weapons with European air, sea and ground weapons. Europe and the UK is essentially left to secure Europe without American assistance. Any large decrease in US NATO contributions requires offsetting replacement of US military personnel with European personnel, replacement of US weapon procurement with European and an increase in military spending to at least 4.5% for all EC nations.
3. The 25 % Auto Tariffs & Cdn Real Estate. Trump tariff announcements did not actually address American auto parts and assembly of US made cars in Canada and Mexico. Is America planning to distinguish between the Asian, European and American vehicle content in Canada as a negotiated auto pact settlement that saves Ford, Stelantis and GM operation jobs in Canada and Mexico ? Is this about shutting down Mexico and Canada as a conduit for foreign cars such as BYD that has replaced TESLA with the highest EV sales globally.
4. Canada Caught in Between (China or America ?) is Canada at an inflection point between the two superpowers whereby it is being forced again to appease American hegemony and market proximity or can it navigate a greater Chinese and Asian manufacturing presence in Canada. Can Asian countries be induced into to set up shop in Canada or will Trumps trade between foreign investments and tariff decreases along with market size limit Canada’s options? If not market size what does Canada have to offer, energy and natural resources ?
5. Global Tariff Chart Anomalies . Russia is not included in any tariffs due to the fact that trade essentially no longer exists having decreased from $35B to $2.5B since the war.

C. America
1. Corporate American Ability to afford large capital investments. How much cash reserves will be left even within cash flush companies like Google after their market valuations are halved due to tariffs. Won’t they be more likely to shore up their asset to liability position with share buy back programs and also protect their 25% to 35% markets in Asia with financial concessions.
2. American debt, The Federal Treasury and USD printing . This is one of the most complicated uncertainties regarding American financial capacity during a recession. The relationship between national debt, USD monetary valuation and USD money printing as is supposedly understood by the Fed but confounds many economists. The policy relationship between inflation and interest rates is better known, but how much can US domestic retirement and other fund purchases of US Debt offset decreasing foreign debt purchases. Can USD money printing be sustained for all these large re-shoring of US manufacturing while taking in less tax revenue then new trade tariff income ?
3. Public sentiment, backlash and political actions against rising inflation, unemployment and social benefits. Will US Citizens have enough of inflation, collapsing 401s , government corruption, and genocidal deportation of needed immigrant workers to rise up as a nation in protests comparable to 60s civil rights or 70s anti vietnam wars.

President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House, held up a chart showing proposed import taxes: 34 percent on China, 20 percent on the EU, among others.

29/03/2025

Since my last post update on this Page, financial turmoil in reaction to Trumps unwarranted tariffs are being observed across the world.

As Canada approaches its next Federal Election in May 2025 all Canadians and also affected G20 Nations are organizing both individual and a collective response to the financial and security chaos unfolding.

The following is my latest post that speculated on what G20 allies may be considering given the extreme gravity and impacts to each of their countries.

As posted on LinkedIn, Mar 29th

Cdn PM Carney says nothing is off the table. As one of the most respected and experienced economists, leaders of fellow G20 nation confronted with Trump tariff terrorism listen. All are aware as is Trump of the dreaded nuclear alternative monetary response for which there may be no alternative if this continues.

In a 2019 speech at the Economic Symposium, Carney discussed the limitations of the current international monetary system, which is based on the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. He highlighted the risks of relying on a single currency and the need for a more diversified and stable system

Carney also mentioned the concept of a "synthetic hegemonic currency" that could potentially reduce the dominance of the USD in intl transactions. He suggested that a digital currency, backed by a basket of currencies, could provide a more stable and reliable store of value for central banks and other financial institutions.

While Carney's comments were not directly advocating for the replacement of the USD as the global reserve currency, they did emphasize the need for a more resilient and adaptable international monetary system.

It's worth noting that Carney's views on the Bretton Woods system and the role of the USD are shaped by his experience as a central banker and his expertise in international economics.

U.S. President Donald Trump “respected Canada’s sovereignty today”, both privately and publicly, revealed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney after speaking ...

08/03/2025

Integrating values and interests between China and Canada

As Americans supporting Trump believe the world USD financial systems rules over the world, it’s just a matter of time before Canada and Mexico were dragged down in the US inevitable global decline.

The two pivot points which may offer relief from Trump’s America First agenda aimed at destroying the remaining Canadian and Mexican industrial sectors in favor of America isolationism are military defense and China trade relations. These pivot points will intersect in the future.

One constant argument America makes against its neighbors is that it is defending Canada but thats according to its changing definitions. Its time for Canada to seriously consider from who and decide for itself who its friends and allies truly are.

Russia remains in a war with Ukraine and threatens Europe. America is effectively washing its hands of long standing mutual defense agreements within NATO creating a vacuum that the EC and UK have to fill.,

Canada remains a member of the Commonwealth and a strategic partner of NATO and Europe. America has no control over our agreements with other Commonwealth nations, NATO, other European allies or any country.

NATO without America will be less inclined to have military presence in Indo-China which is in my view appropriate. China and Japan are not our enemies,? they are our strategic trading partners. The world doesn’t need another Vietnam. Canada should aggressively partner with Asian countries in manufacturing gaining from their more advanced engineering in everything from high speed rail to IT and EVs.

America will be left on its own in the China seas by necessity while by design Canada repairs its trade relations with India and China. Canada should immediately retract its naval presence in the China seas which should not be allowed to drag NATO into.

Canada has already significant investment from China in energy such as CNOC’s Nexen in the oil sands. Canada is now at a point whereby US interests and executive employment of Americans in Canada can be accurately described as hegemony and counter to our National Security.

Canada should be seeking to replace American interests in Canada with Asian alternatives. Boldly Canada may also consider inviting cooperative joint military exercises in Canada with Asian countries such as Japan and Korea but also Chna.

Pierre Elliot Trudeau would never have got suckered into damaging our trade relations with China and India to America’s benefit. Taking an idealistic position on the politically driven events of Huawei and the Punjab leader death played right into Americas hand.

Its time for Canada to turn most of our energy if not all away from America and towards our European allies and our Asian trade partners without consideration as to how America may react to that.

There may even be consideration to dissolving institutional partnerships with America that include engineering standards, along with now compromised democratic and security institutions. Canada must learn to stand on its own two feet. It cannot safely ignore America’s cost cutting dissolutions of critical institutions that previously supported health, travel safety, mfg excellence and even defense.

Getting dragged into the conspiracy theories of RFK on health and Hegsmith in defense are a recipe for heightened health and security risks. Strengthen our intelligence separately with the UK immediately and require when necessary verifiable Pentagon independence from Trump when possible.

Meetings between NATO partners on intelligence sharing has to be a priority given Trumps close relationship with Putin and his personal record on Classified information and CIA gutting.

05/03/2025

Choosing Non-American Travel Services

To verify that travel services do not include American firms, follow these steps:

# Online Research
1. *Check the company's website*: Look for information about their ownership, partners, or affiliations.
2. *Search for news articles*: Use search engines to find news articles or press releases that mention the company's ownership or partnerships.

# Travel Service Provider Information
1. *Check the provider's "About Us" page*: This often contains information about their company history, ownership, and partnerships.
2. *Contact the provider directly*: Reach out to their customer service department and ask about their ownership and partnerships.

# Third-Party Verification
1. *Check travel industry reports*: Look for reports from reputable travel industry research firms, such as Skift or Phocuswright.
2. *Verify with travel associations*: Contact travel associations, such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) or the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA), to see if they have information about the company's ownership.

# Additional Tips
1. *Be cautious of indirect affiliations*: Even if a company is not directly owned by an American firm, it may still have partnerships or affiliations with American companies.
2. *Monitor changes in ownership*: Companies can change ownership or partnerships over time, so it's essential to stay up-to-date with the latest information.

By following these steps, you can increase the reliability of your research and make informed decisions about travel services that do not include American firms.

28/02/2025

De-Dollarize International Trade

The most effective financial option left for the IMF, WTO, NDB, BRIC, and G20 to stop Americas rogue trade financial attacks and entitlement behaviors. End the USD bias international trade reserve privileges.

Independence from the USD gives other countries the right to disassociate from an America having less than 5% of the world’s population but constantly highjacking global finances. Only then will America understand that no one country has unique WTO privileges , that the world owes them nothing but it is vice versa.

Nations own currencies and sovereignty are at constant threat from the debt ridden USD reserve trade model. The USD is America’s responsibility to serve its people not the world’s currency to serve them. Each country can do their part by not buying US debt in government bonds and T-Bills. Thankfully China and Japan have started taking this approach.

Like minded BRIC nations are already engaged in this necessary change, most nations should join.,

Surely AI has matured to correct the imbalances in this trade transactional currency system.

Obviously Trump has a high level of paranoia against this inevitability given his 150% tariffs for those who decide to introduce an alternative decentralized exchange system such as stable coins. Countries have a right to trade under their own currencies which is a mechanism to also support them without resorting to buying US government bond hedging.

Free the world, stop US financial hegemony and follow the BRIC initiatives towards non USD alternative trade exchange platforms.

28/02/2025

US Economic fundamental Debt versus GDP Overview

I have not found a daily updated chart for US debt to gdp which is the barometer that measures the ability for America to control its debt, which has gone out of control mostly as a result of the 2007 financial melt down and Covid era expenses and stimulus.

While Trump supporters of extreme measures are focussed on debt, the gdp part of this fundamental measure on the ability to sustain debt payments relies equally on GDP.

America’s GDP is below Chinas’ in real goods and so relies heavily on the Service sectors such as financial services, social media, advertising, legal, online shopping, gambling, crypto, and entertainment.

Please correct me if wrong but these services rely on global institutional and consumer trust of the American brand. There are alternatives from other countries.
So far the threats of tariffs and exageratted claims of foreign investment in the US or conflict spoils sees no sign of generating confidence in the equity markets that the largest US services can thrive let alone survive extreme broad based austerity measures.

What is the potential end result with the impulsive day trading mentality being applied is higher unemployment (ticking up), higher debt to gdp from collapsing service sector gdp (markets show this and the end of debt relief in the form of foreign purchased government bonds (already well underway)?

The recession word is now on the table and tariffs which are US consumer taxes are viewed by most economists as pushing the US into it. The question investors from institutional to individual will wrestle with now is how long and how low will the American go into recession and could it even be a depression.

24/02/2025

The Asia Alternative to US Equities

Hong Kong, Japan and Shanghai, the place to park your money . To learn about the various alternatives for direct non American involvement equity purchases on Asian markets consult AI or ask here .

Beyond pretense I don’t think the Chinese, the Europeans or any other country should make any trade deal with America. It should now be obvious based on their unilateral changes and violations that America under Trump cannot be trusted nor held to its word.

Feels like a repeat of the subprime meltdown may be starting on the markets.
Trump has conveniently dismissed the major factors around Tariffs and is locked into a path towards a costly US recession .Two factors hardly discussed.

1. Trust and reputation in America intl agreements and contracts cannot be rebuilt as quickly as they are destroyed and
2. We all consider tax advantages when we go into business. The problem with trying to offset increased supply side tariff costs is it presumes you will make a profit. That is dependent on the customers you are scaring away.

I hope China only feigns pretense on trade agreements when responding to Trump now looking elsewhere for a win. Its time everyone just said NO. China is laughing at all of this, as their IT gdp is now greater than their real estate. China will shoot past America in two years or so now, and Canada should get onboard.,

24/02/2025

Online Security in the Trump World

People forget the circles that Trump worked in when a Casino boss which is typically associated with the p**n industry and NY mobsters.

These industries have the most sophisticated security IT systems around and Trump surely has maintained those connections

Not to be alarmist but Russians are specialists in cyber hacking and yes that includes our data. Quantum computing is on the horizon making existing encryption obsolete.

Whateve the recent revelations on Trump ls KGB connections turns out to be, maybe jusr related to Melania its Trumps collaboration with Putin on all our networks which poses the greatest threat, I think.

24/02/2025

Managing Investment choices without US Equities.

We are all facing changes that will likely disrupt most of what we assumed could be trusted with our future financial security.

Can one really assume that the American USD centered financial systems that many use from outside of America are safe from unilateral dissolution of foreign US listed investments by arbitrary presidential executive order ?
If the President of United States will openly shakedown a victim democracy like the Ukraine and reward a war criminal anything is possible as simply transactional business without honor, ethics or international law.
The American brand is in uncharted waters and there are alternatives, many much better, which need the type of mature international regulation such as China’s RMB official recognition by the SWIFT banking systems.
For example, will Trump in a desperate effort to stop the slide in American equities dictate policy to the SEC and HFCAA ( Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) to dissuade investors moving out of US equities into Asian stocks, which make superior products and are less volatile than US high PE speculations.
Canadians have alternatives to dedollarize their investment portfolios while maintaining USD currency hedging that is independent of White house risks.
The Canadian COBE exchange with hedged US listed stocks is one and others include Interactive brokers and Questrade which offer direct lower fee trading on the HKEX, Shanghai and other non American exchanges. As Questrade is a Canadian firm it excludes the Americans and even offers accounts in foreign currencies.,
The shift from the USD reserve status will be a long and painful road but one of necessity for countries seeking protection of their own currencies and independence from the current white house invented punishments against all parties in their efforts to decrease their debt interest payments.
As countries see the trend of the White House suddenly inventing a five alarm fire on debt despite four years of unprecedented economic growth, all nations are increasingly observing a high level of fear and mistrust in anything American, which Ofcourse includes its financial systems.
Most ordinary investors feel helpless against such unpredictable dynamics and will characterize precautions to de dollarize their portfolios as counter to the large forex returns enjoyed over the last decade. Times are changing and the efforts by America to hang onto financial control globally seem at this point desperate and fear driven.
This financial blog is not to be considered investment advise but a discussion forum that invites comments especially those unbiased by US investment houses, representatives and anyone profiting from the current USD reserve status quo.