02/13/2016
4:50 PM 2/13 | A complex winter storm will impact the region beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Tuesday. In typical El Nino fashion for this time of year, this storm will produce significant liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts for much of the Mid Atlantic. Low pressure will take an inland track from the Tenessee Valley northeastward into the Mid Atlantic. Please check official statements from the NWS here (http://www.weather.gov/erh/) We also have details on our website (http://www.footsforecast.org/2016/02/feel-like-groundhog-day-yet.html)
Snow is expected to begin late Sunday night over the region. This will continue much of the day on President's Day, with a wintry mix developing during the afternoon and evening from southeast to northwest. Precipitation will changeover from snow to a brief mix of snow and sleet. Snow and freezing rain should then takeover for many areas.
With temperatures expected to climb above freezing by Monday night, plain rain is expected by the overnight hours for the metro areas and locations to the south and east. Areas north and west may have a tough time changing over to all rain, but at this time a changeover is expected here as well. Rain will be moderate to heavy Tuesday morning before gradually clearing out later in the day.
As for accumulations, we think a few inches of snow is likely for the metro areas and locations to the north and west from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Freezing rain accumulations up to one quarter inch will also be possible before temperatures rise above freezing. For locations south and east of the metro areas, we expect snowfall accumulations to be around an inch or two with minor ice accumulations.
Should the storm track a bit more to the west, snowfall amounts would be reduced and there would be a faster changeover to rain. A more eastward track would allow for slightly more snow and ice amounts with a slower transition to rain.
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(Forecaster Jason and the Winter Stormcast Team)