08/24/2021
Re: A Growing and Serious Need for 100% Fully Vaccinated Residents to Save Ourselves from COVID-19
I have attached a file that graphically shows the effect of not all residents being fully vaccinated on South Carolina and Horry County and projections of what the data could look like if all residents were fully vaccinated. The right side of the graph shows the current state of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The two graphs on the right side of the page show projections of cases and deaths if all residents had been fully vaccinated from week ending June 19, 2021, to August 14, 2021. If close to 100% of residents were fully vaccinated, cases and deaths could be reduced to a small number, and COVID-19-caused deaths could potentially be eliminated altogether. The projections are based on empirical data from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environment Control data collection study on 26,848 COVID-19 residents that compared fully vaccinated and not fully vaccinated people (July 1–31, 2021). I used the data by applying the concept of sampling distribution to make projections.
I have been developing charts and statistics about COVID-19 since early in the pandemic. The cases and deaths in South Carolina and Horry County were in a rapid free fall when only a small percentage of residents had been vaccinated per pages four and five of my report dated April 16, 2021 (https://wilsonconsultingservices.net/wcs_covid-19_vaccine.pdf). The recent rapid rise mimics, to some extent, the rapid decrease that started on January 16, 2021, and continued into the summer. Although about 50% of South Carolina and Horry County residents are fully vaccinated, the patterns seen now— interlaced with the variant—are beginning to mimic the rise seen in November 2020. See pages nine and ten of my report dated August 21, 2020 (https://wilsonconsultingservices.net/wcs_covid-19_vcd_report.pdf).
There was not a statistical correlation between the small percentage of vaccinated people in January and February during the free fall of COVID-19 cases and deaths. I am sure the CDC noticed the rapid decrease last January and February before the vaccine had begun in earnest and before a significant number of people had been vaccinated. For example, CDC director Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky made the comment in April 2021 that it is the CDC’s hope that the vaccine and whatever other remedies are developed in the future will “keep the COVID-19 virus at bay.” To that end, it seems that a 100% fully vaccinated population is necessary to minimize cases, hospitalization, and deaths.
In closing, the COVID-19 pandemic may differ from previous pandemics where there was a choice on whether to take a certain medication; however, judging from statistical analysis, this may be a situation where close to 100% of residents need to get fully vaccinated to preserve our way of life.
Thank you for letting me share this information with you.
Sincerely,
Dave Wilson
Disclaimer:
I am not a medical professional; rather, I am an electrical engineer by training and a statistics practitioner who makes every effort, on a regular basis, to collect and analyze pertinent data that may be of interest to the public and to share my summaries in a format that is easily understood by the average person.