09/24/2026
A client asked me last week: if a coordinated AI slowdown actually happened — what would you expect to follow?
It's the right question. And the answers are worth walking through, because they're not what the advocates of a pause intend.
The first consequence is the innovation gap. A coordinated slowdown among Western AI developers doesn't slow AI development globally. China has stated explicitly, at the highest levels of government, that AI leadership is a national strategic priority. The EU is already behind in foundational model development. A pause by the United States and its allies is not a pause in AI advancement — it's a transfer of AI leadership to actors with different values, different accountability structures, and no interest in the safety infrastructure a pause is meant to enable.
The second consequence is the bad actor window. A voluntary pause is only observed by actors who have something to lose by not observing it — reputational exposure, regulatory scrutiny, peer accountability. The organizations building AI for disinformation campaigns, for cyberattacks, for manipulation at population scale are not among them. A slowdown by legitimate developers is, in practice, reduced competitive pressure on the ones doing the most damage.
The third consequence is economic misdirection. The most significant near-term applications of AI — in drug discovery, in materials science, in logistics optimization, in financial services for populations that have historically lacked access — are closest to viability right now. A pause doesn't freeze AI at a safe moment. It freezes the beneficial applications that are most ready to deploy while the harmful ones continue advancing in environments with no oversight.
Slowing legitimate development isn't a neutral act. It has a direction — and the direction advantages the actors least likely to use AI well.
A pause doesn't stop the threat. It funds it.
Imagine this dynamic in your organization — would slowing down a legitimate industry create more risk, or less?
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