08/07/2026
One of the biggest objections I get from prospects when discussing institutional-grade due diligence is that the hits they've taken so far haven't been enough to bring them down.
They think because they haven't taken that hit yet, it isn't going to happen.
Well, history has a different lesson.
📜 Lessons from the Past: The Hits You Never See Coming
Most people have heard the classic tale from World War II.
The military wanted to put more armor on its bombers to reduce losses, so it took the obvious approach: put more armor where the returning planes had taken the most hits.
Then came the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University.
They helped the war effort by applying statistical analysis to wartime problems.
Among them was Abraham Wald.
At first, Wald was considered an enemy alien and wasn't even allowed to access the top-secret work being conducted by the SRG. A federal court had to naturalize him so he could review his own work.
The SRG pointed out that the planes should actually be armored in the areas where there were no bullet holes, because aircraft hit in those locations never made it home.
This concept is called survivorship bias, a statistical error that results from concentrating on the things that survived a selection process while overlooking those that didn't.
💡 The lesson: Just because you're still flying doesn't mean you aren't vulnerable.
The absence of failure isn't proof that risk doesn't exist.
We see this all the time in due diligence.
It comes in a lot of forms:
▪️ "I've done business with them for years." → Without ever checking their current risk profile.
We've seen 20-year partnerships fall apart in minutes because financial strain led to poor decisions.
The worst part is that, in many cases, if people had known what was happening, they would have helped before it became a crisis.
▪️ "I've never lost investor funds." → When your own risk management and compliance structure makes losses a matter of time.
Losses don't just come from bad investments.
They come from bad partners, bad vendors, bad paperwork, and weak compliance structures.
Financial risk.
Reputational risk.
Legal risk.
Vendor risk.
Counterparty risk.
The most dangerous risks are rarely the ones you've already survived.
They're the hits you never see coming.