05/09/2023
AI: Threat or the Next Productivity Transformation Tool?
I was listening to the local morning radio station last week as I was getting ready for work. I heard the news reader say that IBM was going to pause hiring approximately 7,800 new employees in back-office positions – as the CEO thought the jobs could be replaced by AI.
I started to smile, as it brought me back to my early days at IBM. At the time, mainframe computers were all we had, the PC and server computers had yet to appear, Bill Gates was in high school, and Yahoo was a not so kind name to apply to certain individuals. We were constantly conducting long-range capacity planning to support the introduction of future families of computers.
It was almost a given that a brand-new manufacturing facility was required for expansion within the next five years. I learned in a subsequent position in HQ’s that this new expansion location need was not unique to Poughkeepsie, in fact almost every IBM manufacturing location had a similar need for aa growth location to meet anticipated demand.
Most fascinating, I was told that an earlier IBM corporate strategic projected that within five years IBM would need to hire every high school graduate in the United States to meet their manufacturing workload requirements. Really, though I am not sure this was fact or legend!
So, with hindsight we know IBM did not become the universal employer. What happened? A very powerful factor intervened – productivity. Increased use of two and three shift operations, requiring and getting productivity in indirect employee departments, and the introduction of the PC became a massive productivity tool. I was the CFO of a large research and manufacturing facility with 10,000 employees in the mid 1980s. As we introduced PCs into our location, we required each department to reduce their staffing levels by one headcount for every three PCs added to their department.
One productivity area IBM completely missed was the reuse of recently obsolete computers returned from customers. When the next faster, better generation of computers was introduced, the customers would upgrade to new equipment and return their leased computers to IBM. Approximately 80% of the high-end computers were leased rather than purchased. The company had very clever manufacturing engineers, and they started to introduce the returned computers to control manufacturing equipment previously manually operated by direct employees.
So, back to the beginning, why did I smile when I heard the IBM news on the radio? During my working career, IBM moved from potentially requiring every high school graduate as employees to pausing the hiring of the next 7,800 employees – due to the application of new technology for further productivity.
What will AI bring? I’m still exploring the big picture, but I think we all should consider how AI will impact our organizations to ensure we remain competitive and productive.
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This article discusses the role of technology in productivity trends.