10/01/2026
Growth is giving. Inflation is taking.
That line is from my September Economic Update. Here is why I said it.
Manufacturing PMI hit 54.6. That is eight straight months of growth. Services PMI hit 55.4, the best in six months. GDP got revised up to 2.2%.
But prices paid sat at 71.1. That is 23 straight months of rising costs. Services prices hit 72.6, the highest since 2022. Core PCE is 3.0%. The Fed's target is 2%.
This morning made it louder. September PMI came in at 54.5. Prices paid jumped to 77.9.
Mid-50s PMIs light up stocks. Prices above 70 keep the Fed hiking. Growth gives. Inflation takes.
Music: Deuces by Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) — CC BY 4.0