Virginia Craft Beer Consulting, LLC

Virginia Craft Beer Consulting, LLC Consulting Services for Virginia Craft Beer Suppliers, Retailers and Wholesalers.

Analysis of IRI Syndicated Data to Identify Consumer Trends to Help Customers Maximize Business Performance.

11/29/2023

Just Finished my Fall Data Review and saw some slight deterioration in craft trends this fall. Some other thoughts:
-Craft Volume -7% in Fall with +4% Price Increases + -3% $ Decline
-Fall Seasonals Did not Provide Normal Lift (-8% $ Decline)
-Variety & Single Brand 12pk Cans Continue to Outperform (Locals Not Really Players in 12pk Cans @ Grocery!)
-Sours, Fruited Wheats Remain Really Strong
-RTD's Slowing but Still Growing....Seltzer Based Driving Most of Growth
-DMV Market Continues to Struggle for Total Beer/Craft. Possible Reasons (Costco, Healthier Lifestyle, NOVA-DC Population Loss post-Covid, Legal W**d, RTD Impact, etc.
-Pricing Matters! 12pk Cans, 19.2oz Best Growth Rates...Why>? Cheapest Craft Packages on a $/oz Basis
-Food Lion Continues to take share (and Walmart) as Consumer has traded Down to Cheaper Grocery Options After 2022 Inflation Spike

Reach out with Questions!

11/14/2023

Starting to Study the North Carolina Market Given the Similarities to Virginia (Grocery Dominant) for Potential Expansion. Initial research looks like NC is Outperforming VA for Craft Overall but Many of the Same Trends Look Consistent Across the State Lines. Reach out if you have thoughts on NC Market.

07/03/2023

Took a Look at the Cider Sector which has Rallied Since mid 2022. Bold Rock has 2 Brands Driving the Entire Sector's Growth (Imperial Cider, Seasonal). The Category is Still Dominated by Bold Rock & Angry Orchard but there Seems to be Some Momentum Overall which BR is Capitalizing On.

05/22/2023

Published our April VA Craft Beer Report Thursday. A Couple of Key Points:
-Overall Improvement in Both Craft and Total Beer Trends in April However…..
-April-May 2022 were some of the worst months for beer performance so comps were light
-RTD $ Gains YTD = Total Craft $ Losses YTD. RTD’s taking share from multiple categories (beer, wine, spirits) but interesting to see impact to craft
-Variety Pack Growth Driven by IPA Variety Packs. Traditional Variety Packs are Declining
-IPA Category Being Impacted by IPA Variety Packs. Also Imperial IPA’s are the winners as consumers look for more abv
-6pks continue to lag 12pk cans and Singles
-4pks are trending flat
-Fruit/spiced/veg category growing driven by sours/fruited wheat SKU’s

DM us if you want more info

04/28/2023

1Q Craft Trends Remain Soft as Gains Continue to be Taken by Cheap Beer (Imports, Domestic Sub-Premium). RTD Growth Still Trending 30%+ which is Impacting All Beer and Likely Craft Disproportionally. Variety Packs, Sours, and Fruited Wheat are Showing Growth but All Other Craft Styles Remain Negative. Singles (19.2's) and 12pk Cans are Growing but All Other Packages Remain Weak. Early Look at Major Grocery Resets Suggest Craft is Losing Space in the 2023 Spring Resets.

03/28/2023

Sorry for the Delay in the February Virginia Ccraft Beer Report. IRI had a delay in releasing the last week of February Sales. Hopefully the Data is Published this Week and we will get a Report out by the End of the Week!

03/10/2023

Seeing a little improvement in beer trends in February. This could be weather related but all beer categories ticked up in the first 3 weeks of February. Craft still lagging the beer market as domestic sub-premium, super-premium (Mich Ultra) and imports are the outperforming categories but craft is improving. Will have our monthly VA Craft Beer Report out in next 10 days when we get final February numbers.

01/24/2023

Reviewed the Final 2022 IRI numbers and what is clear is that the impact of inflation and the consumer trade downs to cheaper beer was the biggest story of 2022. Multi-packs, singles, variety packs, imports, FMB’s, Domestic Sub-Premium, etc all took share while craft, cider and seltzers lagged. Other big stories:
-New Belgium picked up almost 2 share points in a single year
-The DMV (largest craft market) continues to be weak
-RTD $ Gains = Craft $ Losses
-Seltzer ”Correction” Continues
-Craft Cans Growing 17% Faster then Craft Bottles (cans 55% market share)
-Local Craft Growers: Three Notch’d, Aslin, Parkway, VA Beer Co, Bingo
-DB 24% Ttl Local Craft Sales

12/01/2022

Looking at the November Data, the Overall Beer Market Continues to Marginally Improve vs. the 1H of 2022 Trends. However, the majority of the improving sales are being captured by Imports, Sub-Premium Domestic, Super-Premium Domestic (Ultra), FMB's (Twister Tea). Craft, Cider, Seltzer are significant laggards.

RTD's are accelerating in the Fall vs. Summer Trends. Impact to overall Beer is tough to quantify as RTD's are clearly taking share from other alcohol categories (Spirits, Wine, etc.) but there is some impact to beer and likely to craft specifically.

Other Thoughts:
Cans Pulling away from Bottles with 56% share and actually growing slightly with Bottles -17%
IPA Category still dominating (41% Share) but Hazy/New England style seems to be slowing. Incremental sales being captured by Imperials (All New Belgium?)
12pks, 4pks and 19.2 Cans are still growing
6pks are not performing well (cans and bottles) likely due to inflation issues as customers trade up to the 12/15 pks for more $ value

We will see what Thanksgiving did for sales but overall it feels like the market is improving but craft is not really participating. The comps will start getting much easier in early 2023 when we anniversary the huge inflation impacted sales in 1Q.

10/11/2022

In Speaking with Major Grocery Beer Buyers, it Sounds Like the Seltzer Space will be Losing Shelf Space in the Spring 2023 Resets. This is not Surprising given Super Negative Trends on Seltzers and would Anticipate Much of the Space Swaps will go to RTD's. While RTD Space is on Fire, the Sales Remain very Concentrated with High Noon and DB Controlling Most of the Sales. Tito's Coming and likely to be a Huge Brand. Vodka & Tequila are the Clear Winners. The Local Brands are Outperforming but the Challenge for New RTD's is the Concentration of Sales in the Top Couple of Brands. Craft Remains Challenging although there has been Marginal Improvement over the Summer. Aside from RTD Cannibalization, Pricing Remains the Major Obstacle. Imports, Domestic Sub-Premium and Domestic Super-Premium (Mich Ultra) all Taking Share.

07/28/2022

Published the Mid Year VA Craft Beer Report. Beer Rallied Between Memorial Day and July 4th. However, Craft is Not Keeping Pace and Continues to Struggle as Customers Trade Down to Domestics/Imports Likely Driven by Grocery/Gasoline Inflation. Craft. Cider and Seltzers continue to Lag the Broader Beer Sector.

05/27/2022

The May Virginia Craft Beer Report was Published Yesterday. Some key takeaways:

-Beer/Craft rallied in 1H April most likely due to Easter shift and some marginal weather improvements
-Late April/Week 1 May was a mess with double digit declines in beer and 15% declines in craft
-DMV continues to massively underperform the rest of the state
-Seltzer slide continues as RTD’s are stealing seltzer consumers. White claw maintaining share.
-Craft Spring seasonals getting hammered
-Craft Cans 53% of craft sales and pulling further away from bottles but….
-Craft Can share gains coming from 12pks and 4pm s
-Craft Can 6pks NOT OUTPERFORMING bottle 6pks
-Inflation impacting craft consumers as cheap domestic/imports and multi packs outperforming
-What is Working?
-High ABV craft, craft 12pks, cheap beer, multi packs, Mich Ultra, RTD

Email us if you want to see the full report
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Washington D.C., DC

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