07/05/2026
THE SEARCH FOR A GOOD RACEHORSE - its the magic that mankind has been seeking ever horse racing first took place and over time many methids, models and theories have been advanced as holding the key.
It is a fascinating rabbit-hole for those intrigued by it, that devours many hours in the process. Sometimes succeeding in its predictive outcomes and sometimes not, causing those genuinely interested to go back and interrogate what was missed or might explain the failure of the prediction.
Often the reasons for a bad run are extraneous to the horse - i.e. bad ride, poor training, got blocked in running, injury etc. All too often, especially in the minor divisions, it is due to manipulation of the horses running to "manage" the penalty of merit rating systems and/or odds in future races because punting is a major influence in horse racing. These extraneous factors can, on the face of it, confuse pedigree analysis heavily. Notwithstanding good research must seek to determine the likely reasons and double-check their pedigree analysis just to be sure.
What is certain is that no method of study is perfect and none will deliver even close to 100% accuracy. It is true that some yield better predictive outcomes than others on balance - i.e they are correct more times than others. The qualifying criteria of a positive method is that it is right more often than its wrong and the - its positive strike rate must be higher than its failure rate. The greater the difference beyond 50%, the more reliable that method is.
WHEN DOES A METHOD BECOME SIGNIFICANT? - one can debate the correct threshold however we suggest that once the model it is right around 65% of the time, it becomes significant. Beyond that becomes increasingly difficult, but not impossible. At 75% one is about as good as one can get.
OUR METHOD - we follow Probability Theory and utilise this approach to predict the likely performance of a horse over the lifetime of its future racing career based on a mthodical extraction and analysis of performance facts behind a horse (i.e looking back into its pedigree) drawn from multiple sources. ideally we are looking for a convergence of racing performance into the subject horse. In this exercise we also observe performance in the near family as well by looking horizontally through the last 2 generations of the female family to see what has worked and what hasn't. Where it has we determine if the breeding was similar as confirming indicators. Our search is broad for data and our analysis is methodical because we are looking for horses that will be successful at any level of racing and not only Grade 1-2-3. The Output is a report that provides a prediction based on the facts of what they horse is bred to do and the level at which they could be successful.
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