14/10/2026
What actually predicts a good hire, ranked worst to best. Most hiring leans hardest on the weakest signals.
Near the bottom: the CV (where someone has been, not whether they will do the work well here), the panel's gut feel (mostly a measure of how much a candidate reminds the panel of themselves), years of experience (twelve years of the same year is not twelve years), and the reference check (useful for behaviour, close to useless for whether they were any good).
Better: a skills test that mirrors the real job. If the task looks like a normal Tuesday, the result means something.
The top two are the ones most interviews never test. Strengths, meaning what gives a person energy rather than just what they are good at, which predicts whether they are still trying in month seven. And at number one, what a person does with a question about something that went wrong: whether they reach for the cause inside themselves, or outside themselves. It wins because everything else on the board can be coached, and that one is very hard to shift.
Which of these is in the wrong spot, and where should it sit?