ODDS-On Jockey Management

21/08/2024

Since 2017 over staying (middle) distances at Cannon Park you want to be drawn in barrier:
3 (13.9%)
5 (16.2%)
11 (15.8%)
13 (14.3%)

You don't want to be drawn in:
7 (2.8%)
14 (0%)

Barriers are in for this year’s Red Beret Hotel Cairns Cup.
Fifth Position for local trainer Stephen Massingham has drawn the coveted barrier 1.

Red Beret Hotel Ladbrokes.com.au

19/08/2024

Cairns 17.8.24

Ratings for Newmarket day are below

Track was so biased not sure there's too much value in looking at the numbers outside of a handful of runners. Let's hope we get a fairer setup this weekend....

12/08/2024

Ratings Roundup - Innisfail 10.8.24

Heavy 9 and some pretty ordinary conditions = some pretty ordinary times on the clock (unsurprisingly).

R1 - Maiden - Best run race of the day (95.68 raw winning figure). Top 4 separated by under a L suggests they're all probably handy enough

R2 - 0-60 - Ovoid (94.98 raw figure) did this easily by an extended 3.5L

R3 - Open - Run over the same C&D as the race above but won in a slower time probably only tells us this was a track on the downgrade. Yes Dream continues to mop up these country races and did so here carrying 65Kg - better than these (94.59 rated fig)

R4 - BM55 - Another good weight carrying performance, this time by Battle Royale who carried 62.5Kg and won by over 3.5L (95.00 Raw figure rates up to 95.28)

R5 - Banana Cup - Last Royal continued his good run of form dictating this from the front before kicking away for a 2L win. Be interesting where he goes during Carnival as clearly a horse in form and still looks a ways ahead of his rating

Excited for the first day of Cairns Cup Carnival this week, looks like some great racing on paper and a very competitive field of entries for the Newmarket

04/08/2024

Ratings Roundup - Townsville Cup 3.8.24

Great day of racing with some hugely competitive fields and a plethora of big time figures. Definitely a day where you wanted to be up on speed, all winners bar one for us either led up were up in the vanguard.

R1 - Maiden Plate - Convertor Holt Racing ran a nice figure a few weeks ago and made no mistakes here kicking away at the top of the straight to run out a 3L winner. 98 raw time figure telling us it was a pretty handy maiden

R2 - BM65 - Up and coming stayers. Tropic Sands the first of many winners for Hatch Racing on what was a huge day for the stable.

We still don't have historical time records for this C&D (2000m) at Townsville so we've just used some very preliminary figures for now so happy to ignore these without more context.

R3 - BM55 - Quick fire double for Hatch Racing as Russian Mint carried 62.5 running raw figure of 98.38 rated up to 98.71. Probably the most impressive performance of the day for us as he defied track bias, coming from well off speed and coming home out deep. Impressive.

R4 - BM55 - Northernontap made it three in a row Hatch Racing 👏 and the first three here all put on impressive weight carrying performances. Winner 98.5 rated while second & third ran rated figures 98.61 & 98.35

R5 - 0-55 - Early Fusion did this well Vale Racing winning by an extended 2L while running 98.82 raw figure

R6 - CL3 Plate - Fourth winner on the day Hatch Racing and this was a red hot race. Winner Moktaffy winning with a raw figure of 98.87. Less than 5L separated the top 10 here with tenth running raw figure of 98.79 and the whole field running 97.82+

R7 - Townsville Cup - Race lost much of the intrigue when Namazu pulled himself out of the equation but take nothing away from the winner Warp Speed who carried 58Kg and did this impressively. Hope we see Namazu back on the track before long

R8 - Cleveland Bay - Most intriguing race of the day and it didn't disappoint with the whole field running raw figures 98.79 + 🔥

Winner Northern Pride made use of the good draw running 99.83 raw figure. Tiger Legend in second John Manzelmann Racing carried 6.5Kg more than the winner and ran him to within a length (99.57 rated fig) while both Smart Image Rowe Racing and Bonaparte carried big weights and ran big rated figures (99.86 & 99.85).

R9 - Demon Award's run some big time figures in the past and looked back to his explosive best here, getting across from the wide draw and sprinting off of quick sectionals. 99.95 raw figure is red hot and gets rated up to 100.11 when rated down to 60KG
First three in ran 99.95, 99.94, 99.93 raw time figures while the whole field ran 98+ figures again highlighting the strength and depth of these races.

Rated figures are even more impressive with 98.33 the lowest rated figure of the race.

That wraps up one of the big days of racing in the FNQ racing calendar. Hopefully we've added some context to the days racing and highlighted just how competitive carnival racing is in FNQ.

03/08/2024

Just getting started Jenna Edwards 🤜

01/08/2024

Ratings Roundup - Cairns 1.8.24

Good to be on site today even if the weather didn't fully cooperate! Bit of rain on the track and a couple of races were run in pretty ordinary conditions which looks to have had an effect on some of the times.

R1 - 3YO HCAP - Small field here and I'lltellyougo was backed as if a good thing and that was how it turned out. Too quick for these even with the weight. 97.15 raw & rated figure.

R2 - 3YO Maiden - Poor rating race with the winner running raw figure of 94.32.

R3 - Maiden - Another poor rating race, winner 94.68

R4 - Open - Last Royal ran an eye catching time for us LTO and looked well placed today getting weight off the top 2. Made no mistakes on what was a big day for the stable. 98.55 raw fig tells you there's a pretty handy horse in there. Prime Ruler & Brilliant Mind both carried weight and ran good rated figures as a result (98.59/98.68).

R5 - Stadium of Light had some very handy back form and ran away to win this convincingly, winning eased down with a 97.53 rated figure.

R6 - BM55 - Boogie Wonderland carried top weight and dismantled this field winning by over 4L. Time wasn't anything OTT but eye test very impressive - 96.33 rated fig

R7 - BM70 - Race changed complexion at the gates when Stats refused to load. Crowning Moment a good winner, 95.27 rated

R8 - BM65 - Competitive closer and the Hedley horses really set this up for the closers going out hard in formation. Well In Sight ultimately finishing over the top carrying the big weight to run a 97.68 rated figure. 9/10 ran rated figures 96+ plus on a day when times were middling at best which tells you they went pretty hard here

We'll be back after Townsville Saturday on what looks set to be a great day's racing.

29/07/2024

Ratings Roundup - Townsville 28.7.24

Big day of racing and it didn't disappoint with some 🔥 times across the card and 2 track records smashed!

Will note that track was clearly running fast as every race was won with a raw time figure of 98.5+.

R1 - 2YO HCAP - Well run race by the 2yo's with the first 6 in running 98.8+. Rated to 60Kg winner Astra Star & Acedrod come out on top with rated numbers in the high 98's.

R2 - 2&3 Yo Maiden - Another well run race for the grade won by Cosmic Atom in a raw figure of 98.53 rated down to 98.28.

R3 - 0-58 that was run extremely quickly with all 13 running raw figures in the high 98's +. Winner Sir Zabeeri winning with a raw 99.87. Second in Kefalonia on top with a rated 99.77. Down the field Edification carried 60Kg to only be beaten 5.5L = 98.88 rated fig.

R4 - Open - Speed Legend continued his good prep just about winning the bob while carrying top weight. Raw & rated figures of 98.91

R5 - Lightning (Open) - 🚨 New Track Record 🚨
Much has been made of the winner smashing the previous track record (rightly so) but perhaps more interesting for us is that the first 6 in here all broke the previous track record.

Impossible not to be impressed with how Queen Assassin Nick Walsh put them away here. 100.85 raw & 100.52 rated figures speak for themselves. As we said - first 6 in all broke track record and therefore ran raw figures 100+. Rated times - All Time Legend Massingham Racing comes out second best (100.21).

R6 - Fillies & Mares BM70 - Top Spy carried 62.5Kg and very nearly broke the track record running 99.82 raw rated up to 100.24.

R7 - 3YO Guineas - 🚨 New Track Record 🚨
Second record to be broken on the day as Beau Rain on the backup ran 100.89 raw (100.14 rated).

We again have multiple horses breaking the course record here with the first 4 in running 100+ raw figures. Rated figures we have Parade Ground Vale Racing on top with 100.29.

R8 - BM60 - Hot favourite Hell found the front and never looked back winning by 5.5L and running a raw figure of 99.98 in the process! Despite the big winning margin those in behind still ran some big figures with 2-6 running rated figures in the high 98's +.

That wraps up a big day of racing. As we said at the top, the red hot times across the card suggest track was running extremely quickly so just something to factor in when looking at the ratings at face value. (We only had 2 horses all day not run a raw figure at least in the 97's...)

We'll be back with a wrap up from Cairns Jockey Club midweek before Townsville for Cup Day next weekend.

25/07/2024

Ratings Roundup - Townsville 20.7.24

R1 - Competitive 0-65 with the first three in running 98+ raw & rated times.

R2 - Big field for the maiden plate. Winner, More Than You running rated fig 96.49. Just fair for the grade.

R3 - Another big field for the Maiden Handicap. Kidston did it impressively and a rated figure of 97.35 would suggest there's probably better races in him.

R4 - Good field for the girls race and very close at the top with the first 8 in seperate by just over half a second. At the weights we have Bring Me Flowers Hatch Racing marginally with the best rated figure here (97.82) closely followed by Brave Maso Jeffrey Caught (97.63).

R5 - Only a BM60 but run in a really good time with the whole field running raw figures 97.4+. Couple of notable rated figures here. On top we have Single Honor Royes racing 98.5 rated fig. Viburnum, Cold Power, Zi Win Rowe Racing all deserve a mention running rated figures 98+

R6 - Staying race run over 2000m which we don't have any track records for in our spreadsheet :(

R7 - 3YO HCAP - not the best rating race of the day. Winner Bean Rain the big takeaway carrying the 60Kg and running a rated figure of 97.83

R8 - Open - Best race of the day and didn't disappoint with some big numbers run. Northern Pride winning with a raw fig of 98.97 and the whole field running 97.9+ raw. Rated, a couple of big standouts. Full Recognition Massingham Racing running second carrying 60.5 ran a rated figure of 99.05 while Smart Image Rowe Racing ran 8th carrying 66Kg = 99.00 rated figure. These two have been consistently running standout rated figures this preparation 👏

20/07/2024

Ratings Roundup - Cairns 18.7.24

R1 - 2 & 3 YO Maiden - First two in gapped the rest of the field but a raw time fig of 95.31 suggests this wasn't the strongest of races/maidens

R2 - 2 & 3 YO Maiden Plate - Competitive field and a competitive race with the whole filed running 96+ raw figures. Winner Lean Eagle Massingham Racing looked very green but still put them away nicely and a rated figure of 97.37 suggests there's probably quite a handy horse in there. Wouldn't be giving up on any of those in behind either.

R3 - BM70 (2100) - Small field staying race that unsurprisingly probably wasn't run at a great pace. As a result the time's aren't anything that flashy but the winner (Secret Location Maria Potiris) is a horse we have a lot of time for. Put these away with ease and looks an up and coming stayer to follow.

R4-6 - BM55 - Three divisions which we will lump together for clock analysis. All three races were run within .05 of the other(96.28, 96.23, 96.25) would have been some sight in a 30 horse field! Rated figures - on top we have Ammand who despite only running 7th carried 63.5Kg on the card and as a result ran a rated figure of 96.63. My Artie again ran a good race, the weight just told but the rated numbers tell us this was a good run.

R7 - BM60 - Well run race with Well In Sight Rowe Racing getting up close to home, running a big figure in the process (98.81 rated). Stable mate Counter Command also ran a good rated figure (98.56). Runner up Mazzaratti looked home but just got caught late but equally ran a good rated figure carrying weight (98.81). Hartshorn Royes racing 98.53 rated fig, probably unlucky to not run a place running high 98 rated #'s

R8 - Open (1400) - Prime Ruler ran out a narrow winner (98.48 rated) in a good time. Runner up Harrow Massingham Racing again grabbing a place, continues to run well. For same connections Brilliant Mind ran an eye catching rated number for us carrying the 62Kg (97.91 rated)

R9 - BM55 (1500) - Another very well run race with the whole 14 runner field putting up raw time figures 96.5+. Last Royal carried 61Kg running out a comfortable winner (98.7 rated), Stadium of Light (60.5Kg) - 98.62 rated. Stablemate Battle Royale also worth a mention carrying the 63Kg and running a rated figure 97.91.

R10 - BM55 (1250) - Not the best run race of the day with the winner Stats Massingham Racing running a raw figure of 96.23 (95.9 rated). Still a competitive field however with the top 10 covered by only 5 lengths.

Will have analysis for today's meet at Townsville up in the next couple of days.

11/07/2024

Ratings Roundup - Townsville 7.7.24

R1 - 2YO HCAP - After putting up a big number last week (97.97) the quick backup didn't work for Better Show who could only muster a 95.69 rated figure. Winner Kobayastar 95.55 rated fig. Fair.

R2 - Maiden HCAP - Competitive enough race for the grade and the winner Datinka Michael Mclellan did it in a decent enough time (97.96 raw, 97.63 rated). Convertor Holt Racing carried 60KG and ran a 97+ rated figure so should be breaking his maiden shortly.

R3 - Open (1609) - Small field and an upset as favourite Mooloolaba could only run out a distant second. Winner Such A Whit deserves all the plaudits however running 98.90 raw time, winning by an extended 3L. Wouldn't be dismissing the fav at all off that run however, still ran a good time and didn't mind the run of a few of the others in here either who should be looking to get out over ground in the coming weeks.

Third Realm was a big eye catcher for us a few weeks ago but couldn't quite replicate that today, once again carrying the big weight. Still have him as one to look out for as we head into Cup season and some more suitable races.

R4 - Open (1000) - Good race with the whole field running 98+ times. Winner Hurtle Holt Racing resumed where he left off with an impressive 98.54 rated figure first up . Few in behind worth a mention as well. All Time Legend Massingham Racing also first up and carrying 3.5KG more than the winner was a real eye catcher (98.71 rated). He's Xceptional, Circularity and Prime Ruler all carried weight and ran good rated times.

R5 - 0-55 - First leg of a double for the Bailey boys. My Artie's run a couple of eye catching runs this prep and deservedly gets his head in-front in town. 97.98 rated handy enough for the grade.

R6 - 0-55 - Second division and again we have a Bailey winner who wins in almost an identical rated time to his stable mate (97.79).

R7 - 3YO HCAP - Another competitive 3YO race, winner Sweet Kisses Holt Racing defying top weight to run out a narrow winner. 97.88 rated figure. Beau Rain comes out second best at the weights with a 97.79 figure with the field rated to 60Kg.

R8 - BM65 - Very close race with the first 5 in running within .04 of a second. Two big standouts for us were Harrow Massingham Racing and Ventura Ocean Hatch Racing who both carried well north of 60KG and ran rated figures 98+.

R9 - CL6 - Another competitive race with the whole field running good times. Raw figures it's the first three in who impress with times in the high 98's. Rated numbers there's a number of eye catchers with half the field running rated figures in the 98's. Reggie's Boy & Armour Force both ran down the field but ran rated numbers in the mid 98's. Crystal Chief as well as the first three in rounding out the eye catchers.

That will do us for this week. Some good racing on at Rocky over the next couple of days which we will be sure to keep an eye on before racing (finally) returns to Cairns Jockey Club next week.

27/06/2024

Ratings Roundup - Townsville 23.6.24

Another late roundup I'm afraid but under the pump atm so apologies!

R1 - 2YO HCAP - Competitive race despite the small field and unsurprisingly Dance For Me Randy was the hot favourite coming off the classic win. However despite the short quote this always looked a tricky race for us lumping 62Kg as a couple in had run big numbers and now got in at feather weight.

Played out as such as Dance For Me Randy Holt Racing ran a good time (98.03 raw / 98.25 rated) but the weight just told late.

Winner Smart Mission ran a raw time of 98.95 and the first three in all ran rated figure 98+ for another high quality 2YO race 👏

R2 - Maiden - Over the same C&D this wasn't quite up to the ratings of the 2YO's the race before but for the grade was still won in a more than respectable time.

Winner Wanderlei - 98.01 raw and the first 6 in all ran raw fig's 97+ suggesting they should be winning chances down the line

R3 - 3YO Maiden - Super Freeze carried top weight and proved much too good winning by an extended 5L. 98.48 raw and rated figure = too good for this grade

R4 - 3YO HCAP - Not the highest rating race of the day with the winner Yellowstone Beth recording raw fig of 97.76

R5 & R6 - BM58 - Split into 2 divisions so we will combine for these purposes. Lady Damus Massingham Racing coming out on top with a 98.89 raw figure adjusted down to a rated (60Kg) 98.39. Second division was the stronger of the 2 races with multiple 98+ adjusted figures in there, with a mention to Cold Power who finished down the field but carrying 61Kg still ran a 98.35 adjusted figure for us which was only just outside the winning time.

R7 - 0-60 - Mention to Zouhope who finished 5th but comes out best on the adjusted numbers with a 97.8

R8 - BM65 - First 2 in Crowning Moment/Dark Rebel the pick of our numbers due to both carrying 60+. 97.90/97.88 adjusted for the pair.

R9 - Open - Not the strongest rated race of the day (the staying races rarely are up here) but Speed Legend showed that he's the classy animal we thought he was and just had too much speed for these. Will be interesting if he can maintain his kick if stepped up to Cup distances across Carnival season.

Big eye catcher for us here though was Third Realm Jeffrey Caught who despite being last in ran the best adjusted figure (97.94) by far thanks to carrying 66.5Kg. Ex European whose only had the 2 starts up here - think he's a huge player in the staying division.

Races like this are why (in our opinion) the adjusted figures (rating everything to 60Kg) are so useful. On paper a 9L ninth of nine doesn't stand out but when taking into account the conditions of the run/race it actually becomes the stand out performance. This helps provide context to runs that in turn allows us to better understand how a horse is going.

24/06/2024

Ratings Roundup

Innisfail 22.06

Good to finally see racing back at Innisfail and on a Good 3 track we had some eye popping times recorded 🚀

R1 - BM45 - Competitive race with the first 5 in running raw figures 99+. First 4 in all lumped 62+ and as a result ran huge numbers for us coming very close to breaking the course record we have in the spreadsheet. Winner Prophetess adjusted figure of 99.82 Alwyn Bailey

R2 - Open - We have a new track record (for us anyway) with Crystal Chief winning with a time of 63.02 beating our previous record of 63.01! 🔥 Again, first 5 in all ran raw figures 99+ but pick of the bunch by far was Yes Dream carrying 62Kg. Adjusted down to 60Kg and we have him running an adj fig of 100.15 💥

R3 - Maiden - Unsurprisingly the lowest rated race of the day but a 97+ raw fig suggests this was a decent enough race for the grade.

R4 - BM60 - Another record broken with the first three in beating our previous course record 💥 First two were only separated by .03 of a length and therefore ran identical raw figures. Rated to 60Kg we have Last Royal Alwyn Bailey coming out on top with a 100.78 rated figure.

R5 - BM65 - Not the best run staying race you'll ever see as can be seen by the raw winning figure of 97.98. Big shout to Maria Potiris winning the last 2 on the card and the forecast in the last 👏