18/08/2026
90% OF WHAT? The plantation claim deserves a closer look
For years, The Wilderness Society and others have argued that because around 90% of Australia’s log harvest comes from plantations, we can simply stop harvesting native forests and meet our timber needs from plantations instead.
It sounds compelling.
But the data tell a very different story.
FWCA has released a new technical paper examining the claim using ABARES data, Regional Forestry Hub research and the latest analysis of Australian timber production and imports.
The key issue is simple: 90% of total log volume does not mean 90% of every timber product comes from plantations - and it certainly does not mean plantation timber can replace native forest hardwood.
Among the findings:
🌲 ABARES reports that native forests still supplied 72% of Australia’s hardwood sawlogs in its detailed national dataset.
🌲 In contrast, 91% of hardwood plantation production was pulplog and only 9% was sawlog.
🌲 Much of Australia’s hardwood plantation estate was established for short-rotation pulpwood, not long-rotation sawlogs for flooring, decking, cladding, joinery, poles, piles, bridge timbers and other high-strength and durable applications.
🌲 Australia’s total commercial plantation estate has actually declined, from around 2.0 million hectares in 2009-10 to about 1.71 million hectares today.
🌲 Venn, Huang and Lachhwani’s analysis of 27 years of Australian production and trade data found plantation softwood and native hardwood are complementary - not substitute - products.
🌲 Their modelling estimates a long-run timber harvest leakage rate of 81.3%: when Australian native forest production falls, much of the lost supply is replaced by imports, not Australian plantation pine.
And perhaps most significantly, a 2026 PF Olsen report commissioned by WWF Australia itself concluded that new and existing plantations will not fill the short-term timber supply gap created by reductions in native forest harvesting and that demand will most likely be met through imported timber and wood products.
That report puts meaningful assistance from new plantations and technology at 15-30+ years and recommends further research simply to determine the area and type of hardwood plantations that would be required to maintain domestic hardwood supply.
Then there is the investment reality.
Long-rotation hardwood plantations require decades of committed capital, expensive land, pruning, thinning and management, while carrying fire, insurance and market risk. Regional Forestry Hub research shows returns from long-rotation hardwood plantations can fall well below the rates required by commercial investors.
So the question for those claiming Australia can “easily” replace native forest timber with plantations is straightforward:
Show us the plantation resource.
Show us where it is, what species are growing, what log grades it will produce, when it will be available, what products it can replace and who will invest in establishing the additional resource required.
And, critically, explain what Australia will use during the decades required to grow it without simply increasing imports and transferring our timber demand - and its environmental impacts - overseas.
Plantations are essential to Australia’s timber future.
But “90% comes from plantations” is not evidence that native forest timber is redundant.
Our new technical paper examines the evidence behind the claim.
90% of what? It is time for a more informed timber debate.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wilfdxv1wq3ko3ddrcfns/FWCA_Technical_Paper_Plantations_and_Native_Forest_Timber_Aug_2026_hub_research.docx?rlkey=hs4w5o3fcius26occcgfd14lc&dl=0
