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Agrivet Business Consulting Agrivet Business Consulting services individual farmers & farmer groups in western Vic, SE of SA and Tasmania with scientific evidence based advice.

We also consult to companies in ag & government. We take a whole farm approach to farm consulting.

Haven’t posted very much lately - but some dense Balansa clover flowering, while sheep are doing well in a sub clover do...
01/11/2026

Haven’t posted very much lately - but some dense Balansa clover flowering, while sheep are doing well in a sub clover dominant paddock.

Meanwhile, the Dairy Beef yearlings are motoring along on good clover.

And to make sure they’re on target, the Optiweigh in their paddock will tell the farm all!

This is an exciting new enterprise that’s bound to grow.

Had a couple of weeks off in September visiting Vietnam - lots of things to see and an enjoyable relaxing break.  5G cov...
15/10/2026

Had a couple of weeks off in September visiting Vietnam - lots of things to see and an enjoyable relaxing break. 5G coverage was fantastic, but the safety aspects surrounding towers are a little different from here - see 4th photo! Wires everywhere with no guards let alone a fence!
Spring has now definitely sprung in western Vic, but worms are still causing a few issues around the traps.
But a bit more rain for most clients, the spring will be excellent.
But Tassie is a different story….

In the next spring rainfall instalment, the first graphic reminds us of the BOM’s spring rainfall forecast at the end of...
04/10/2026

In the next spring rainfall instalment, the first graphic reminds us of the BOM’s spring rainfall forecast at the end of August.

In the 2nd graphic is a reminder of how poor the accuracy of the BOM’s rainfall forecast is, have no skill in southern Vic, and struggling to explain more than 20% of the spring rainfall forecast.

In contrast, the simple SOI, in the 3rd graphic, explains a much higher percentage of the spring rainfall.

Then we have our spring rainfall forecast model from the end of August in the 4th graphic, which explains up to 70% of the spring rainfall forecast in southern Vic and Tasmania.

And want to know what this year’s forecast is? We will be publishing soon with more details to come…

To follow on from our last post, just to recap, the first graphic shows us the BOMs spring rainfall forecast made at the...
29/09/2026

To follow on from our last post, just to recap, the first graphic shows us the BOMs spring rainfall forecast made at the end of August..

The 2nd graphic shows us their track record, which is low, where they struggle to explain more than 20% of the variation in spring rainfall.

The third graphic is the original Southern Oscillation Index. The index is the simple difference between the barometric pressure between Darwin and Tahiti in July. That is, Tahiti x minus Darwin y = SOI z and it explains up to 45% of spring rainfall. Very simple.

And it outperforms the accuracy of the BOM forecast, particularly in northern NSW and southern QLD. This year, the SOI is at a record low for July, which means southern QLD and northern NSW aren’t going to have a great spring. It has less predictive power as we head south, where it is not statistically significant in southern VIC. It has low impact in TAS.

In our next post, we will publish our spring rainfall model, which does considerably better than both of these models.

After being accused of being too hard on BOM’s Seasonal Rainfall Forecast in the past, over recent weeks we’ve crunched ...
24/09/2026

After being accused of being too hard on BOM’s Seasonal Rainfall Forecast in the past, over recent weeks we’ve crunched a lot of data to check if we were right…

Not opinion here, but lots of facts…

The first figure displays the BOM’s spring rainfall forecast at the end of August. Yes, there is a super El Niño, but they forecast pretty much a normal chance of exceeding median rainfall for much of northern NSW and southern QLD and a grim outlook for southern states, including WA….

Yet, WA in the past has hardly been impacted by El Niño events?

In the 2nd figure is the historical track record of the BOM’s spring rainfall forecast at the end of August.

It does approach statistical significance, but it explains less than 20% of the spring rainfall, with no significant result for most of VIC, TAS, SA and WA.

Thus, all farmers apart from southern QLD and northern NSW can ignore their forecast. It has no accuracy for you. None, zip, zero. Facts….

In the next post, we’ll look at a different model to predict spring rainfall.

In Tasmania recently, pasture FOO levels on target despite a poor autumn.  Mild soil temps & some rain = pasture FOO lev...
24/08/2026

In Tasmania recently, pasture FOO levels on target despite a poor autumn. Mild soil temps & some rain = pasture FOO levels mostly on target for ewes.
Steers on 2.0 t DM/ha FOO and plenty were sitting & chewing their cud. Contented! On another topic, there’s been quite a few beef cattle worm issues.
Pallaton Raphnobrassica still going gangbusters on this farm through winter!
Being Tassie, there’s always frosts, while these twin ewes were lambing well on 2.0 t/ha FOO. Well done to these producers!

Some pics from recent farm visits….Very SLOW trip up Muntham Hill - this truck was full of big utes apart from the small...
24/07/2026

Some pics from recent farm visits….

Very SLOW trip up Muntham Hill - this truck was full of big utes apart from the small car - this shows how big they are! And no, I wasn’t driving!

The rest indicates that pasture conditions are more like early spring than mid winter!

And the first ewe photos were ewes spot on for condition score for close to lambing..

Client had them really spot on! Great to see…

At the Balmoral Merino Lifetime Productivity Project Seminar, with results presented after running for 10 years…Great nu...
23/07/2026

At the Balmoral Merino Lifetime Productivity Project Seminar, with results presented after running for 10 years…

Great numbers and questions…

Economic modelling found profit/ha dominated by fleece value with a strong backup from repro rate equally shared by Conception, Littler Size and Rearing ability - surprised that the economic value is the same between them…

And genetic gain is evident over recent years in the “industry” indexes.

A very good day of science!

In Tassie last week again, seeing clients.  Phenomenal regrowth in winter of Pallaton Raphnobrassica - this plant contin...
12/07/2026

In Tassie last week again, seeing clients. Phenomenal regrowth in winter of Pallaton Raphnobrassica - this plant continues to impress.

And some ewe lambs on target on some very juicy pasture. Northern Midlands benefiting from some recent rain and mild soil temps to see a pasture recovery there.

No photos of south Tas was possible due to very thick fog - they weren’t worth publishing, but while most of south Tas is doing it hard, Derwent is going well, but it was the worst of the fog!

Getting wet in some parts of Western Vic.  For some, it’s not wet yet, but enough soil moisture to have pastures growing...
07/07/2026

Getting wet in some parts of Western Vic. For some, it’s not wet yet, but enough soil moisture to have pastures growing madly. Quite a few farms now have dams full, others wanting some more to fill theirs.

WECs have been mostly low - some weaners are getting up, so need watching. Winter has finally come this week with some frosts, but so far, it’s been so warm that there has been some fly activity.

Address

Hamilton, VIC
3300

Opening Hours

Monday 8am - 5:30pm
Tuesday 7:30am - 5:30pm
Wednesday 7:30am - 5:30pm
Thursday 7:30am - 5:30pm
Friday 7:30am - 5:30pm

Telephone

+61-428 838 262

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