24/06/2026
‘While today’s fall in headline inflation to 4 per cent is encouraging, what is worrying and presents a real warning sign, is the trimmed mean inflation lifting from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent,” he said.
“That is moving in the wrong direction and further away from the RBA’s 2 per cent to 3 per cent target band,” he said.
He said the lift in underlying inflation would make any case for a rate cut harder to make.
The Reserve Bank of Australia now faces a tricky dilemma: hike interests rates for a fourth time this year to continue to tame inflation, but risk plunging the country into recession.
“This is the stagflation risk,” Mr Chesler said.
“Inflation is proving difficult to bring down at the same time the economy is losing momentum. That may not mean recession, but it does mean investors should be careful about assuming the next phase will be easy.
“We think the terminal rate for this cycle is either the current 4.35 per cent, or 4.6 per cent if the RBA is forced to move once more later this year.”
… The largest contributor to headline inflation was housing, the ABS said, which lifted 6.5 per cent.
A 21.1 per cent jump in electricity prices propelled the surge.
“Electricity costs are 21.1 per cent higher than 12 months ago as Commonwealth and State government rebates that reduced electricity costs for households are no longer in place,” ABS head of prices statistics Rachael McCririck said.
The halving of the fuel excise and lower global oil prices reduce pressure on automotive fuel, the ABS added.
“On a monthly basis, Automotive fuel prices fell 11.9 per cent in May, after falling by 7.0 per cent in April,” Ms McCririck said.
“These monthly falls include the impacts of the halving of the fuel excise on April 1 and lower world oil prices in recent weeks.”
… But in stark language, Ms Bullock said the RBA was deliberately pushing for an economic slowdown to reduce price pressures.
“We are forecasting that growth is going to slow and growth has got to slow … that is what is needed to try and get inflation down,” she said after the RBA’s latest decision to hold rates.
“People shouldn’t be alarmed about that – that’s what has got to happen in order to bring inflation down.”
Ms Bullock said the RBA did not want to tip economy into a recession, but needed to “slow it enough” to bring inflation back to 2.5 per cent.
“We are not aiming to put the economy into a recession – so this is why it is such a difficult time,” she said.’
Australia has recorded a surprise dip in headline inflation, but experts warn a deeper problem is being masked and Aussie homeowners are set to be slugged with another interest rate hike this year.