10/05/2024
For anyone not in our Aurora Group
Aurora Australis NSW / ACT / SA
⚠️ 📢 🚨 AURORA WATCH ⚠️ 📢 🚨
"Four halo CMEs are expected to arrive at Earth within the next 48 hours, possibly resulting in significant geomagnetic activity and visible auroras during local nighttime hours. Aurora alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs."
🌌 🟢 🔴 EVENT:
This is the first Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch Kp 8.33 (G4 to G5) forecast since 2003
This was the great Halloween Solar Storm of 2003 where aurora was visible well beyond the Queensland border.
⏰ ️🕑 TIMING:
The peak of activity is expected to arrive Saturday afternoon, with storming continuing into the evening. As there are another 2 potential trailing eruptions, we expect this storming to continue into Sunday evening and perhaps some additional storming on Monday evening.
The best time to shoot/search is usually when the initial shock hits, so most likely Saturday night, as soon as it gets dark.
Timing may vary by up to 6 to 10 hours with events like this with lots of eruptions coming at different speeds. We will give you at least 1 hour notice to get out! :) When the shock front hits the spacecraft in earths orbit.
🌙 🌚 🌔 MOON:
Fantastic. Hardly any moon. Moon is small and is setting around 7.30pm to 8.30 pm at present.
☁️ 🌞 🌧 WEATHER (SAT 11 May Night):
*shakes fist*
☆ ACT (Evenings)
Sat: Cloudy and Raining. Zero chance of aurora unless you drive a long way.
Sun: Partly Cloudy with a fair bit of clear sky around.
Mon: Mostly Clear
☆ NSW (Evenings)
Sat: Cloudy and Raining in the Eastern half of the state. If you really want to chase this thing you will need to drive to potentially Urana / Griffith. May be some clear windows on the mid north coast also. Sat images are you friend.
Sun: Better but still a lot of rain around the Sydney Wollongong and South Coast areas. A drive to Yass or Narooma or Canberra should get you out of the rain / cloud. Sat images are your friend.
Mon: Mostly Clear, entire state.
☆ SA (Evenings)
Sat: Mostly Clear with some low cloud around the peninsulas and KI / Adelaide. Satview is your friend to escape it.
Sun: Mostly Clear in the east except for near the Vic border and the peninsulas. High cloud moving in from the west (western half of the state) depending on cold front timing.
Monday: lots of broken high cloud around. Should still be shooting opportunities. Around 30 to 50% whispy high cloud.
(Midnight Sat EC Windy Forecast in images)
LINKS:
Current Satellite Image:
Satview.bom.gov.au
Infra-red layer works best at night
Glendale:
https://aurora-alerts.uk
Solarham Dashboard
www.solarham.com
Real Time Solar Wind
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
BOM Aurora Conditions
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora
Good Luck!!!! HAPPY CHASING!!
P.s. Yes it could arrive early. Aka tonight / tomorrow morning. We'll let you know if this happens.