06/06/2026
If you own property in Victoria — or you're trying to buy — you need to see this.
The RBA has hiked interest rates THREE times already in 2026 (February, March, May), taking the cash rate from 3.60% back up to 4.35%. The late-2025 cuts that got buyers excited? Fully reversed.
Here's the real picture in Victoria right now:
Victorian house prices:
Peak in late 2025 → $838,000
Now in Q1 2026 → $800,000
That's a 4.5% fall in just two quarters.
Who's feeling it most:
The outer suburbs are under the most pressure — Craigieburn, Pakenham, Point Cook, Hoppers Crossing, and the Cranbourne–Casey corridor. These areas have buyers who borrowed big on lower incomes. Three rate hikes adds up to $240–$360 MORE per month on a typical mortgage compared to last August.
47 postcodes across Victoria are now recording higher mortgage stress. That number is rising.
But here's what gives buyers a real edge right now:
New listings are running 12% above the 5-year average. Clearance rates have dropped to around 50%. Agents are still quoting prices based on late 2025 conditions. If you're armed with actual comparable sold data from the last 3–6 months, you negotiate from a position of strength — not confusion.
The next big moment: RBA decision on June 16, 2026.
ANZ thinks Melbourne prices could fall another 1.7%. KPMG thinks Victorian houses could RISE 6.8%. The banks are all over the place. What matters is what's actually selling near you, and at what price.
We've broken down the full data — including a suburb-by-suburb look at Sunbury, Tarneit, and the most mortgage-stressed postcodes — in our latest Market Pulse article.
Read it here: https://abora.com.au/market-pulse/interest-rates-victoria-property-market-2026
What area are you watching? Drop your suburb below — we'd love to know what the market feels like on the ground where you are.