Extreme Weather Forecasting

07/05/2026

🌨 SNOW FALLS ON MT DANDENONG 🌨 AS COLD AIRMASS/BLAST hits Multiple States.

A cold front that swept through last night was followed by a cold airmass behind it that swept across the states of Tasmania, Victoria earlier this morning and is currently moving through NSW/ACT. Which has brought snow down to low levels this morning across these states. Isolated cold air thunderstorms have helped to bring an exceeding expectation to parts of Mt Dandenong and the Dandenong Ranges and snow has fallen across the Central Ranges, Grampians and Alpine regions of Victoria, NSW/ACT and Tasmania.

We were in Mt Dandenong just before 5am when we encountered a thunderstorm that got help in terms of lift from the mountain. As we climbed up to the top as it was raining with thunder and lightning, the rain gradually shifted from rain to snow as the temp dropped and by the time we got to Kalorama and then Mount Dandenong it was coming down full snow and went from about 5c to 1c. As we approched Kalorama and Mount Dandenong it wasn't long until we started to encounter roads that had already been fully covered in snow and settled that my DSC in my car engaged, as some of it was deep enough to make the car lose traction on the road. This all occured in what I could only describe in all my years going up for snow events, easily one of the best snow events of Mt Dandenong in my life/years. I would estimate at least 1-2cm fell in places and maybe higher in some places. Unfortunately, it didn't last too long as cars and later warmer rain would wash it/melt most of it away before it was light enough to get photos, plus a pesky street sweeper went through and would have cleaned some of it up 🤣

Never the less it was certianly worth the drive and if you happen to live up there, then you may have woken to a little winter wonderland this morning ⛄️❄️

Unfortuantly, nothing more like this is on the cards in the near future as blocking highs make a return and see mild winter conditions return from next week. Maybe a rain event as well coming, but no cold airmass or blast just yet on the horizon like this one, yet this was meant be realatively weak in terms of strength compared to the usual winter fronts we get.

Image: Photo of the snow covered road taken by myself this morning.

PHOTO NOT FOR RE-BROADCASTING, RE-USE or RE-PUBLISHING WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. LICENSING AVALIABLE THROUGH CONTACT via our DM's.

27/01/2026

EDIT-Hopetoun Airport ties Walpeup for NEW STATE RECORD with a write up on these conditions to come tomorrow.

☀️🌡️WALPEUP,VIC SETS NEW STATE RECORD for HIGHEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SINCE STATE RECORDS began with 48.9c as of 3:38pm this afternoon in the Mallee region in NW Victoria. NOTE: This is a running Maximum up to 6pm and it could still record higher.

Hope everyone has stayed cool and safe.

10/09/2025

UPDATE 5:20PM: TORNADO WARNING HAS EXPIRED/CANCELLED. THREAT of SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.

🌪⚠️TORNADO WARNING ISSUED for Central NSW as Supercells in the area produce possibly multiple tornadoes near Young, NSW as a low pressure system crosses the inland of NSW behind a cold front.

LATEST WARNING ⚠️:

IDN21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Central West Slopes and Plains Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:20 pm Wednesday, 10 September 2025.

Severe thunderstorms continuing across central NSW.

Weather Situation: a cold front attached to a low pressure system is moving eastwards through central parts of the state, producing severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Orange, Mudgee, Yass, Bathurst, Capertee and Kandos.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the Hunter district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.

TORNADO OBSERVED NW OF YOUNG AT AROUND 3:30PM.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* After bushfires, heavy rain and the loss of foliage can make the ground soft and heavy, leading to a greater chance of landslides.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 8:20 pm.

Images from the Radar from Weatherzone and Warning from the BoM (in the comments below)

Will provide further updates if needed.

29/08/2025

ℹ️⚠️4:00PM UPDATE: The COLD FRONT the culprit to producing a line of INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS through Adelaide around sunrise this morning including a Tornado has now moved through much of VIC and Western NSW and is currently producing your normal rain and showers with embedded storms.

While just off the VIC SW coast a Low pressure system is developing and strengthening and is bring scattered cold air thunderstorms.

Currently there is a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for NE VIC for DAMAGING and LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, where an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. This system has produced one earlier.

As we go into the evening tonight and early hours of Saturday morning winds will really pick up from the SW/S and gusts across western and central areas to up to 100km/h with exposed coastal areas along the SW/Central and Gippsland coast in this flow seeing winds from later tonight and into tomorrow morning where gusts up to 120km/h are possible. However extreme exposed parts of the coast especially the SW Coast of Victoria could see locally higher gusts nearing 130km/h. Other areas it will be around 100-110km/h.
This wind flow should generally last 3-6 hours before easing in any location.

As this system moves through to the east the winds will slowly ease through out Saturday as the low weakens. Though winds along the divide may last a little longer.

Cold air thunderstorms may also see isolated areas see LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS due to the shear profile of the atmosphere. Along with small hail already seen in Yarrawonga and HEAVY RAINFALL.

Snow will mostly fall tonight and will lower to around ~700m except for in TAS where it may fall to ~200-300m.

Otherwise as seen per the image cold air is already made it in to Adelaide and parts of SA and will extend inland as the system moves through plummeting temps, with wind chill making it even colder then it looks.

So rug up and stay warm and safe over the next few hours.

Warnings in the comments section below.

Image by Windy

29/08/2025

⚠️TORNADO WARNINGS ISSUED in South Australia as a brief Tornado occurs in Craigmore, SA 🌪

A band of intense thunderstorm activity associated with a COLD FRONT crossed SA this morning prompting a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING including a very rare TORNADO WARNING across the Adelaide Metro area.

A Tornado was observed and captured, links in the commets in Craigmore, SA in the outer NE suburbs of Adelaide.

The highest wind gusts recorded this morning were in Outer Harbour with 106km/h just after 6am. Adelaide Airport with 96km/h and Minlaton 94km/h at 8:25am.

Thankfully so far there been no significant reports of property damage or injuries from this event.

Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales your next!

28/08/2025

💨⛈🌨 POWERFUL WINTER STORM expected to impact SE Australia next 72hrs.

A developing low pressure and associated strong cold front is expected to bring some wild and severe weather across the SE of the country from later today and into Friday and Saturday.

A developing strong cold front and associated low pressure system in the Southern Ocean with the aid of a longwave trough will help to amplify the development of the low pressure system and strong cold front to aid it to deepen as it crosses the Bass Strait. This will see a very cold temperatures, damaging to locally destructive Sl'y winds behind the front and on the western side of the low as the isobars tighten as a ridge of high pressure to the west also extends it’s influence. This will help to draw very cold temperatures and in combined with precipitation, will see a very wet, windy and cold few days ahead, as the strongest winter system of the year impacts SA, VIC, TAS, NSW/ACT and parts of QLD. While also producing low level snow and powerful to hazardous and damaging surf to south facing coastlines.

The most significant part of this system will be the damaging winds and potentially locally DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS as this system peaks in the Bass strait on Friday afternoon into the evening and early hours of Saturday morning. This will start to make it’s presence felt later today on the SA coastline along the bight before extending inland and across SE Australia on Friday and Friday Night. Winds will be gusty to gale force on the coast of SA and gusty inland but depending on the strength and movement of the low this system will intensify as it crosses the bass strait and may extend damaging to LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE winds along the Victorian coastline including parts of the SW Coast and Central Coast and maybe NW Tasmanian coast with wind GUSTS up to 120-130km possible with isolated gusts up to 140km/h not out of the question, though most of these winds should remain over the open waters and away from land.

Given the direction of the winds and lack of rainfall and dryness of the soil and dampness in other parts, trees not used to facing such winds will be of concern to topple and cause damage to property and homes in especially dense forest areas. As winds of 90-110km/h are possible especially through parts of VIC. Though direct damage to property and homes from the winds alone with the right preparation should be limited.

As this system progresses the winds combined with snowfall over the Alpine region may cause blizzards and the winds may continue to be felt up the east coast to the ranges/divide west of Brisbane. However the widespread impact for winds will be contained to the SE and be most felt in SA, VIC and NSW. The winds should ease from Friday for SA and VIC, TAS and NSW/ACT on Saturday.

Along with winds, this will be a great system for snow lovers with a lack of low level snow events of recent times, this system is sure to bring joy to those who have been waiting to see some white powdery snow outside the traditional alpine area. Snow is expected to fall across a good portion of SE Australia with 50-80cm expected across the Alpine region and the highlands of TAS, but outside that, this might be the first system to give a dusting to places like Ballarat, the Grampians, Dandenongs and Macedon Ranges in VIC and even the Flinders Ranges and Mount Lofty ranges in SA as snow is expected to fall down to 500-600m ASL in parts of SA and VIC and down to 200-300m in parts of TAS with isolated falls possible to 100m and even sea level can’t be ruled out.

However before you get to excited there are a few things to note, snow is subject to a few factors aligning, first their is precipitation at the time of the coldest air, then there is the freezing and thickness level has to be at a threshold for snow to fall at a certain height above sea level and temps being cold enough in the upper atmosphere mostly in the 850hpa level or 1500m 1.5km above your head. If all these align then there could be some very happy kids and people who usually don’t see snow waking up to a dusting, noting outside the Alpine region snowfall will be just be that “a dusting” so in the range of 0.1cm-1cm with isolated totals of up to 3cm.

Combined with winds in the Alpine region “Blizzard like conditions” are possible, so if you are thinking of travelling, it be best to leave that until the wind portion of the system has passed likely easing on Saturday Morning/Afternoon.

Rainfall wise not a lot is expected, but by no means is it not a healthy amount for a heavy drought affected region where it will be welcomed. Rain again will be highest in the Alpine region but much of that in the image below may fall as snow. However outside that, parts of Adelaide and the Eyre Peninsula and Western and Southern parts of TAS will do well, seeing rainfall of around 50mm+ While 15-20mm elsewhere and further inland 5-10mm is likely, decreasing the further inland you go. Rainfall will come down to bands and may be hit and miss and if you get under a storm you may see more. Storms will be hit and miss and will bring Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall and small hail.

The last part of this is the surf/swell where on-shore winds will bring DAMAGING to POWERFUL SURF and may cause coastal flooding and erosion especially on south facing coastlines of SA, VIC and TAS, especially during high tides, this may include locations in Port Phillip Bay and Western Port in VIC.

Apart from this the basic precautions are all that is needed and while an elevated impact is expected, this is a typical weather pattern and system for this time of year but it is the strength of such a system that is not seen to often this far north, but is not expected to be the same intensity of the one a few years back which did significant damage.

Stay Safe and Warm

Images courtesy of Windy.

26/08/2025

🌡PERTH* BRAKES ALL-TIME LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD after shivering through it's COLDEST day of winter so far 🥶🌡

Perth* has recorded it coldest day on RECORD reaching only a Maximum of 11.4c at around 2:30pm AWST yesterday 🥶🌡failing to reach 11.5c the previous record recorded in 2005, after a cold front left in it's wake a large cold pool of air. Rain received by this system also so Perth brake it's all-time rainfall record for the month of August which was 186.0mm back in 2018. Currently standing at 191.2mm after 21.4 mm fell to 9am this morning with 5 days left in the month, with further showers possible to add to the total expected in the coming 24-48hrs however the majority of the rain has passed with just lingering showers remaining, set to ease on Wednesday before a dry end to the month.

This system has now also moved through the South East of the country but has brought nothing more then the typical wind and rain expected this time of year.

A MORE POWERFUL WINTER STORM system may impact SE AUS in coming days. more on that shortly.

*This report is based off the PERTH METRO Weather Station NOT Perth Airport.

Image courtesy of Weatherzone.

30/07/2025

🟢 JTWC issues UPDATE: NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLAND OR TERRITORIES as of 2:43pm AEST. (See comments below for full update).

ℹ️ UPDATE on the 8.7 Magnitude Earthquake off the East Coast of Russia 🇷🇺 and subsequent Tsunami Threat in the Pacific🌊

NOTICE: Before people freak out as pages start posting information about a Tsunami impacting QLD/NSW later tonight.

We want to make something very CLEAR. THERE IS NO THREAT currently assessed by the Joint Tsunami Warning Centre here in Australia run by the Bureau of Meteorology. Australia's OFFICIAL AUTHORITIES and source for such threats and issues in regards to Tsunami's impacting Australia.

The post circulating is from the US NWS Pacific Tsunami Warning Center which advises based on their latest modelling and update that some coastlines in QLD and NSW may see a Tsunami causing waves and water been 0.3 to 1ft above tide levels from an earthquake of 8.7 Magnitude off the east coast of Russia earlier today 🇷🇺

The important thing from this latest update is it is from the US NWS Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and they key message to takeaway from this is:
..PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

This means it is just advisory from them and all OFFICIAL ALERTS/WARNINGS will be issued by the NATIONAL AUTHORITIES of the countries listed on their own criteria. Therefore I recommend everyone keeps an eye over the next several hours here: http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/national.shtml

If no warnings or alerts are issued it likely the impact assessed by the JTWC is NOT expected to cause any significant impact or the threat is below warning/watch criteria.

Thanks for reading and your understanding, here we aim to cut the BS and tell the facts without spreading fear or alarm without necessary reason.

Any further updates or changes to such advise, we will update here accordingly or post new updates as required.

Enjoy the rest of your day!

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) utilises national capacity where available to provide notification and verification of earthquakes that may generate tsunamis.

06/03/2025

‼️IMPORTANT INFORMATION ON BRISBANE AIRPORT AHEAD OF TC ALFRED‼️

Anyone travelling to BRISBANE. Check with your airlines before getting to the Airport as BRISBANE AIRPORT will be CLOSED from approx the last scheduled flight from Brisbane at 4pm today ahead of TC Alfred.

As for how long Brisbane Airport will remain closed? We are not sure. But will be most likely be based on Damage Assessments at the airport and when airlines think it safe to fly again. Our guess would be late Saturday, if not Sunday at the earliest and may not be until into the early parts of next week.

Latest Airport Updates can be found here: https://www.bne.com.au/updates

Latest of TC Alfred:

HEADLINE: Tropical Cyclone Alfred has slowed down, impacts still expected but delayed

LATEST SITUATION: Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been oscillating offshore of the southeast Queensland coast. Alfred's approach to the southeast Queensland coast has slowed.

Alfred is currently category 2 and is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast very early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

Current Details of Tropical Cyclone ALFRED (22U/18S):
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Area: 27.4S 155.5E
Category: CATEGORY 2
Wind Speed: 95km/h (51kts) GUSTS: 130km/h (70kts)
Movement: W at 10km/h.
Pressure: 982hpa

AREAS AFFECTED:

WARNING ZONE 🔴: Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina but not including Grafton.

WATCH ZONES 🟠: None

HAZARDS⚠️ :

💨 Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are developing near the coast between Cape Moreton and Cape Byron. Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop along the remaining southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Double Island Point and Ballina during Thursday evening, possible extending as far south as Grafton. These DAMAGING WINDS are forecast to persist during Friday before easing during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS of up to 155 kilometres per hour may develop about coastal and island locations near, and to the south of, the cyclone centre, as Alfred's destructive core approaches the coast.

🌊 **A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE is likely along the coastal foreshore for exposed areas between Cape Moreton and Yamba, including the Gold Coast and Byron Bay beaches, ahead of the coastal crossing time on the high tides. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the highest high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous inundation of coastal low-lying areas.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely to continue causing MINOR FLOODING of coastal low lying areas between Double Island Point and Grafton, particularly during the time of high tides early Friday morning (tonight) and early Saturday morning (Friday night). DAMAGING SURF leading to significant beach erosion remains likely for the open beaches between Double Island Point and Grafton, and further south over the New South Wales coast. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings are current for southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.

🌧 HEAVY RAINFALL may develop for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Thursday night. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur near and south of the cyclone centre as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast. Separate Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.

The possibility of Alfred reaching a low end category 3 strength before making landfall cannot be ruled out, but this remains a low risk**

03/03/2025

First Advice issued for Tropical Cyclone Alfred (22U/18S) as of 10:54am AEST March 3rd 2025:

HEADLINE: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to move towards the southeast Queensland coast from Tuesday onwards.

LATEST SITUATION: Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue moving towards the southeast today, slightly away from the Queensland coast before slowing down and turning westward, towards the Queensland coast on Tuesday.

Alfred is currently a category 1 cyclone but is expected to intensify to a category 2 cyclone tonight. It is likely to maintain a category 2 intensity as it approaches the southeast Queensland coast late on Thursday.

Current Details of Tropical Cyclone ALFRED (22U/18S):
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Area: 25.8S 157.3E
Category: CATEGORY 1
Wind Speed: 85km/h (46kts) GUSTS: 120km/h (65kts)
Movement: SE at 20km/h.
Pressure: 982hpa

AREAS AFFECTED:
🟠 WATCH ZONES: Sandy Cape to Grafton including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Byron Bay but not including Grafton.

HAZARDS :

🌊 Severe coastal hazards, including abnormally high tides and hazardous surf are expected to continue over southern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts, deteriorating further as Alfred begins to move towards the coast from Tuesday onwards. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell is occurring about exposed southern Queensland beaches, and is forecast to extend to northern New South Wales coast today.

🌬 GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are are expected to develop along the southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Tewantin and Grafton during Wednesday. Gales may extend north to Sandy Cape from late Wednesday onwards.

🌧 HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING near and south of the system centre as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast late on Thursday. Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.