25/08/2026
AUDNZD is one of the more interesting setups I’m watching into Aussie CPI.
Technically, price has been making lower highs while momentum has been making higher highs.
That’s known as hidden bearish divergence.
In simple terms, momentum has improved, but buyers still haven’t been able to push AUDNZD through its previous highs. That can be a sign that the broader bearish structure remains intact and that the recent rallies are corrective.
Now we add CPI into the mix.
Last week’s Aussie jobs data missed expectations, and rates markets are pricing close to a 50/50 chance of a hike from the RBA by year-end.
That puts more focus on Wednesday's CPI data, especially Trimmed-Mean CPI, which is the RBA's preferred measure of core inflation.
A hotter print could challenge the bearish setup by supporting Aussie yields and the AUD.
But a softer print would reinforce the recent weakness in jobs and wages, and could potentially unwind some of the RBA hawkishness currently priced into markets, and provide a fundamental catalyst for AUDNZD to push lower.
For our analyst Arno, that makes the downside scenario the more interesting one to watch out of the data this week.
