15/10/2026
🚨 US INFLATION IS RISING AGAIN — AND AUSTRALIA IS NEXT 🇺🇸🇦🇺
Overnight, the United States released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, and the results aren't encouraging.
📊 The numbers:
🇺🇸 US Inflation: 3.7%, up from 3.4%
📈 Market expectation: 3.6%
🔥 Monthly inflation: 0.6%
📈 Core inflation: 2.6%, up from 2.4%
⛽ Petrol prices: Up 34.2% over the past 12 months.
So, what does this actually mean?
For months, I've been discussing how disruptions to global oil supplies could create another wave of inflation.
We're now seeing that pressure reflected in the world's largest economy.
THE PROBLEM:
Oil isn't just something we put in our cars.
It's used to transport food, manufacture goods, operate machinery and move products around the world.
When energy becomes more expensive, businesses face higher operating costs. Eventually, many of those costs are passed on to consumers.
And here's where things get interesting.
🏦 Central banks e.g. the RBA, use higher interest rates to reduce demand and control inflation.
But raising interest rates doesn't produce more oil, repair damaged infrastructure or reopen disrupted shipping routes.
It can reduce spending, but it cannot directly fix the supply problem.
🇦🇺 What does this mean for Australia?
Australia isn't immune to global inflation. Actually, we are very susceptible to it, especially as we don't produce or refine our own oil.
If energy prices remain elevated, we could see:
📌 Continued pressure on household living expenses.
📌 Higher transport and operating costs for businesses.
📌 Greater difficulty for the RBA to justify interest rate cuts.
📌 Increased pressure on borrowers, property owners and businesses carrying debt.
📌 Volatility across shares, bonds and other financial markets.
My outlook remains cautious.
This is not the economic environment to become complacent about debt, cash flow or unnecessary spending.
For households, maintaining a financial buffer remains important.
For businesses, protecting cash flow and reviewing operating costs should remain a priority.
For investors, understanding inflation and interest rate risks is becoming increasingly important.
The US figures are another warning that inflation is proving difficult to contain.
Until energy supply pressures ease, the fight against inflation may be far from over.
People in the know don't actually care what the RBA does as we're months ahead of it.
Even if they hold for political reasons, the macro direction and the required direction is blatantly obvious.
