07/11/2019
NB: High Confidence in this forecast track!!
Update 4/Cyclone BULBUL(CS)
Date: 07 Nov 2019
Day: Tuesday
Time: 4:30pm BST (+6 GMT)
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The Cyclonic Storm has moved on NNW & intensified more over Central BOB & Neighborhood during past 6hrs.
It has been located approximately 820km South of Kolkata, India.
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Winds(1min avg):-
Average Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 110km/h.
Gusting up to 130km/h.
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Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in very favourable environment due to low to moderate wind shear offsetting by robust outflow divergence. Also having intense moisture inflow in the lower mid level, which will fuel this system.
And sea surface temperature is very high near 28-30°C.
So, Significant intensification possible over the next 60hrs. And Rapid Intensification possible during next 36hrs.
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Movement:-
It has moved very on NNW direction with the average speed of 15kph during past 6hrs.
From the present location, it could continue move on NNW during next 24hrs.
It may turn North & NNE towards SW Bangladesh.
*High Confidence on the forecast Track.
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Landfall:-
Landfall is expected anywhere between West Bengal-Barishal(Bangladesh) Coast as a strong Tropical Cyclone around 10th November!
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Advisory:-
Entire central BOB could have strong winds & very rough seas during next 24-36hrs due to the influence of the Tropical Cyclone!
Then danger zone will shift towards North Bay along with the Track of the Tropical cyclone.
Fishermen & boats are requested to not to venture into deep sea during next 5days.
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Rainfall:-
Moderate to heavy rainfall possible over Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh coast between 8-12 Nov.
While, other parts of these region could have light to moderate rainfall during this period.
Stay connected for next update!
Thanks,
ŠCyclone News: Bay of Bengal
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