20/09/2026
“Fewer Students. A Greater Responsibility to Improve Learning.”
South Asia will have about 68 million fewer children under 15 by 2050.
That could be one of the biggest education opportunities of this generation, but only if we use it well.
The World Bank projects the region's under-15 population will fall by about 16%, from 420 million in 2024 to 352 million. South Asia still has the second-largest child population in the world, after Sub-Saharan Africa.
Fewer children can mean more resources for each student. But smaller classrooms alone won't improve learning.
To make the most of this shift, education systems need reliable evidence on:
✅ Whether children are learning foundational skills
✅ Which teaching approaches actually improve learning
✅ Where socioeconomic and geographic gaps persist
✅ Whether education spending reaches the schools that need it most
✅ Whether reforms are benefiting vulnerable and underserved children
That means going beyond enrolment numbers to student assessments, school diagnostics, longitudinal tracking, qualitative research and rigorous evaluation, guided by the voices of students, teachers, parents and schools.
The question for the next 25 years is no longer "How many children are in school?"
It is "Is every child learning?"
What is the first thing you would measure? 👇
Source: World Bank, Demographic change is coming to South Asia's classrooms. Will education systems be ready?
"At IRC, we help generate this kind of evidence in Bangladesh and across the region."