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02/06/2025

📊 USD/JPY Technical Outlook – May 30 (European Session)
💱 Consolidation Near 144, Downside Pressure Builds
During the European session on Friday, USD/JPY traded narrowly between 143.92 and 144.27, with an average near 143.91. The pair is currently under renewed short-term pressure, after failing to hold earlier gains.

🔍 Recent Price Action:
✅ Earlier rebound from 142.20 support

🔼 Broke past resistance at 143.00 and 143.50

❌ Failed to sustain above 146.00, pulling back after reaching 146.23

📉 Technical Outlook (4H Chart):
🔻 Broke below 144.00 support

⬇️ Now trading under both the 100-period and 200-period SMA

📉 Entered a corrective phase

🔼 Upside Levels to Watch:
🧱 Immediate resistance: 144.20

🔼 Further resistance: 144.50

🎯 Key breakout level: 145.00

Break above → retest of 146.00, with potential toward 147.80

🔽 Downside Risk Zones:
⚠️ Initial support: 143.00, then 142.50

📉 Below 142.50 → risk of deeper drop to 141.20 pivot

🧱 Major support: 140.00

📆 Upcoming U.S. Economic Data to Watch:
April Personal Income (MoM):

📈 Forecast: +0.4% | Previous: +0.2%

April Core PCE (MoM):

📉 Forecast: +0.1% | Previous: -0.1%

These data points could impact USD sentiment and increase short-term volatility in USD/JPY.

02/06/2025

📈 Dollar Firms Slightly Ahead of Key PCE Data Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly on Friday, ending a volatile week marked by trade policy confusion and anticipation of a key inflation release.
🕒 As of 3:00 AM ET:
U.S. Dollar Index: +0.3% to 99.510, ending a five-week losing streak
💬 Analysts cite renewed Trump tariffs and inflation data expectations as key drivers

🇺🇸 U.S. Market Focus – Core PCE and Spending Data
🧾 Core PCE (April): Expected +0.1% MoM (vs. 0.0% prior)

💳 Personal spending: Forecast +0.2% MoM (vs. 0.7% prior)
→ A weak number could weigh on the dollar

💬 ING: “Spending may matter more than inflation in this release.”

🇪🇺 Euro Weakens on German Retail & Inflation Data
💶 EUR/USD: −0.3% to 1.1332

🛍️ Germany: Retail sales −1.1% MoM

📉 Inflation data across German states & Spain weakened
→ Markets pricing in ECB rate cut on June 5:
🔻 Deposit rate expected to fall from 2.25% → 2.00%

💬 ING: “58 bps of ECB cuts vs. 50 bps for the Fed; EUR/USD likely to stay rangebound”

🇬🇧 Pound Slips but Holds Monthly Gain
💷 GBP/USD: −0.1% to 1.3480

📈 UK inflation remains elevated
→ BoE rate cuts delayed, supporting sterling’s monthly +1.5% gain

🇯🇵 Yen Edges Higher on Tokyo CPI Beat
💴 USD/JPY: −0.2% to 143.88

🏙️ Tokyo inflation stronger than forecast → Possible BoJ hike in July

📊 Other Japanese data upbeat:

📉 Industrial output fell less than expected

🛍️ Retail sales beat forecasts

🇨🇳 Yuan Steady Amid Stalled Trade Talks
🇨🇳 USD/CNY: +0.1% to 7.1949

💬 Treasury Secretary Bessant: China-U.S. trade talks have stalled after early-May progress

02/05/2025

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