Petar Petrov

14/10/2026

What keeps an airport operating when its main fuel supply route is disrupted?

The answer reaches far beyond the runway.

Refineries, shipping routes, fuel storage, delivery trucks and refuelling systems all help determine whether aircraft can depart. When one critical link fails, the consequences can reach tourism, cargo and regional connectivity.

Futura Energy Analytics’ publication, “Aviation Fuel Security: The Next Energy Risk for Europe,” examines this challenge—with a particular focus on Southeast Europe. https://futura-analytics.com/aviation-fuel-security-europe-energy-risk/

We explore why available fuel does not always mean dependable airport deliveries, how sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) changes supply dependencies, and what airports, airlines and governments can do to strengthen resilience.

The priority is clear: secure usable fuel, credible alternatives and a crisis response that works in practice.

Discover Futura’s aviation energy-security research:
https://futura-analytics.com/

Why Jet A-1 supply, airport resilience and SAF readiness are becoming energy-security priorities for Europe and Southeast Europe.

13/10/2026

Southeast Europe Energy Security Brief by Futura Energy Analytics
Reporting window: 5–12 October 2026
Executive Takeaways
1. Europe’s official winter assessment is reassuring at system level but materially less comfortable for Southeast Europe. ENTSOG concludes that EU infrastructure can meet winter demand under a range of conditions. GIE, however, warns that combined low storage, constrained LNG and cold weather can create bottlenecks limiting flows into Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe. ENTSOG
2. The headline storage number conceals a narrow security margin. The EU entered October at 72% full—74 bcm, versus 85 bcm one year earlier. In ENTSOG’s tight-LNG reference-winter scenario, storage falls to 13% by end-March; under cold-winter scenarios, demand response or potentially uncovered demand reaches 7–12% of total demand. gie.eu
3. The Vertical Corridor is expanding politically and geographically into the Western Balkans. Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and North Macedonia reaffirmed the corridor’s expansion, with the Greece–North Macedonia interconnector’s Greek section expected by end-2026, the North Macedonian section in 2027, and construction preparations beginning on the Serbia–North Macedonia link. srbija.gov.rs
4. LNG shipping costs have collapsed despite commodity scarcity. Atlantic carrier rates fell from $287,500/day in March to approximately $25,750/day, supported by shorter US–Europe voyages and a wave of new vessel deliveries. Lower freight helps delivered LNG economics, but does not solve the scarcity or high price of the underlying gas. Reuters
5. Emergency fuel stocks are now actively shaping prices. The IEA accelerated releases of approximately 100 million barrels, prioritizing diesel. Germany committed up to 15 million barrels and France 10 million, reducing immediate European product-market pressure. Reuters
6. A proposed US–Russia diesel arrangement creates a sanctions-policy contradiction. Washington announced prospective Russian diesel supplies while claiming an energy-infrastructure ceasefire; Ukraine said details remained unclear, Russia had not confirmed the ceasefire, and US lawmakers challenged the diesel arrangement’s legality. This is not yet a durable normalization of supply. Reuters
7. Revithoussa’s scheduled maintenance window ended on 8 October. DESFA’s plan had provided for zero LNG send-out from 24 September. No authoritative notice extending the outage was identified, but actual post-maintenance send-out should be verified through operational data before declaring full restoration. REMARKS
Recommended lead publication by Futura Energy Analytics
Europe Has Enough Gas Infrastructure—But Does Southeast Europe Have Enough Deliverability?
https://futura-analytics.com/southeast-europe-gas-security-deliverability/

06/10/2026

Southeast Europe Energy Security Brief by Futura Energy Analytics
Reporting window: 28 September–5 October 2026
Executive Takeaways
1. Serbia avoided immediate disruption, but not the underlying NIS risk. OFAC extended NIS’s operating licence through 30 October 2026, allowing crude imports, refining, financial settlements and supply-security transactions to continue. The MOL–Gazprom Neft transaction remains incomplete, so this is another 30-day bridge rather than sanctions resolution. srbija.gov.rs
2. The Vertical Corridor reached an important physical milestone. From 1 October, technical entry capacity from Greece into Bulgaria at Kulata–Sidirokastron increased to 93.0 GWh/day, with a further rise to 102.8 GWh/day expected after final works in January 2027. The strategic question now shifts from construction to bookings, tariffs and molecule availability. bulgartransgaz.eu
3. Europe outbid Asia for US LNG—but at a high clearing price. US exports reached 10.9 million tonnes in September, with Europe taking 5.91 million tonnes, or 54%. Average TTF was $25.42/MMBtu, narrowly above JKM, illustrating that cargo security is being achieved through price leadership rather than abundant supply. Reuters
4. Qatari LNG movements are showing tentative improvement, but contractual disruption extended into winter. Several Qatar-linked LNG carriers visibly transited Hormuz, yet QatarEnergy extended force majeure affecting Edison until early December. Thirty-five Edison cargoes have now been cancelled, with 23 replaced mainly from US suppliers. Reuters
5. Europe entered the gas year with storage around 70–71%, versus a seasonal norm near 86%. Norwegian maintenance has finished and Gassco says the system is ready for high winter deliveries, providing a stabilizing pipeline anchor. However, TTF remained around €73/MWh, more than double its level at the start of 2026. Reuters
6. Bulgaria’s regulated-price buffer narrowed. The October regulated gas price rose 5.99% to €44.09/MWh. It remains far below TTF, but the increase confirms that global scarcity is progressively entering the Bulgargaz portfolio. Bulgargaz
7. The refined-products crisis has become transatlantic and political. Washington asked France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks—or face a possible US export ban. Because Europe increasingly relies on US products after banning Russian imports and losing Middle Eastern supply, such a restriction would directly raise Mediterranean and Balkan replacement costs.
Recommended lead publication by Futura Energy Analytics: The Vertical Corridor Is Built. Will the Market Use It?
https://futura-analytics.com/vertical-gas-corridor-market-use-commercial-test/

09/09/2026

A new chapter for Futura Energy Analytics begins today.

I am pleased to announce the launch of the new Futura Energy Analytics website — a dedicated platform for strategic energy intelligence, energy security, geopolitical analysis and the future of Southeast Europe’s energy system.

Two major initiatives will be at the centre of our work.

AVIATION ENERGY SECURITY & SAF TRANSITION examines one of the fastest-emerging challenges in European aviation: how to maintain secure and resilient aviation fuel supplies while simultaneously preparing for the transition toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

Our focus extends beyond decarbonisation. We examine Jet A-1 security, geopolitical supply risks, refinery and logistics exposure, airport fuel resilience, SAF readiness and the investment needed to build a stronger aviation-energy ecosystem across Europe and Southeast Europe.

The second flagship initiative is BALKAN ENERGY UNION™.

Southeast Europe has made significant progress in LNG infrastructure, interconnections, storage and supply diversification. The next challenge is to turn that infrastructure into genuine regional resilience.

Balkan Energy Union™ explores a strategic vision in which the region moves beyond fragmented national energy systems toward deeper coordination, stronger connectivity and a more resilient regional energy architecture.

Both initiatives reflect the philosophy behind Futura Energy Analytics:

Energy security is no longer simply about where energy comes from. It is about whether the systems that transport, process, finance and deliver it can continue functioning when conditions change.

Through the new website, I will be sharing research, strategic publications, analytical frameworks and perspectives on the forces reshaping European and Southeast European energy markets.

I invite you to explore the platform and follow the next stage of the Futura Energy Analytics journey.

Visit Futura Energy Analytics: https://futura-analytics.com/

Understanding energy systems. Building resilience. Creating strategic advantage.

Strategic energy intelligence Data-driven energy consulting for cost, risk and regulatory clarity. Futura Energy Analytics helps organizations make confident

24/07/2026

12/06/2026

Why Diversification Alone Does Not Create Resilience in a Fragmenting Global Energy System

The Strait of Hormuz crisis reveals why diversification alone is insufficient and why Europe must rethink energy security in terms of resilience, survivability, and system flexibility.

The Executive Intelligence Series- The Strait of Hormuz Shock & Global Oil Market Realignment Prepared for Futura Energy Analytics Author: Petar Iliev Petrov May 2026 Europe spent years reducing dependence on Russian energy. But the Strait of Hormuz crisis is exposing a difficult reality: Diversific

10/06/2026

How the Strait of Hormuz Shock Is Redistributing Energy Leverage, Transit Power, and Global Market Influence

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is redistributing global energy leverage, strengthening Russia, reshaping US export influence, and expanding the geopolitical importance of control over maritime transit.

The Executive Intelligence Series- The Strait of Hormuz Shock & Global Oil Market Realignment Prepared for Futura Energy Analytics Author: Petar Iliev Petrov May 2026 Energy crises do not produce equal geopolitical outcomes. Some states lose resilience.

03/06/2026

Modern oil markets are no longer only physical systems. They are financial transmission systems.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption triggered extreme volatility across Brent, WTI, and global oil derivatives markets, exposing the financial fragility of modern energy systems.

The Executive Intelligence Series- The Strait of Hormuz Shock & Global Oil Market Realignment Prepared for Futura Energy Analytics Author: Petar Iliev Petrov May 2026 The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer confined to oil tankers, pipelines, and refineries. It is now spreading directly into the fi

01/06/2026

Why Diesel, Jet Fuel, and Refinery Vulnerability May Become More Dangerous Than the Crude Shock Itself

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is triggering a global shock to refining and diesel supply, with major implications for Asia, Europe, aviation, and industrial energy security.

The Executive Intelligence Series- The Strait of Hormuz Shock & Global Oil Market Realignment Prepared for Futura Energy Analytics Author: Petar Iliev Petrov May 2026 Most discussions about the Strait of Hormuz focus on crude oil prices. But the most economically dangerous phase of the crisis may al

28/05/2026

Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Exposed the Structural Fragility of Global Oil Market Resilience

The Strait of Hormuz crisis exposed the structural fragility of global oil market resilience, spare capacity, and strategic petroleum reserve systems.

The Executive Intelligence Series- The Strait of Hormuz Shock & Global Oil Market Realignment Prepared for Futura Energy Analytics Author: Petar Iliev Petrov May 2026 For decades, the oil market believed it possessed a reliable emergency stabilization system. The Strait of Hormuz crisis just reveale