05/06/2022
2022 Kentucky Derby
Two of the top contenders in the field are bred by Brereton Jones of Lexington. He is a former Governor of Kentucky and the owner of Airdrie Stud. His farm has perhaps the oldest history of any in the thoroughbred business and for Standardbreds as well. The farm is built on the former Woodburn Farm and incorporates the original residence that was owned by Robert Alexander(1767–1841), a Scottish immigrant, who came from Scotland in 1786. Around 1790 he purchased the Mercer estate in Kentucky. Under the guidance of his son, Robert A Alexander, during the 19th century, Woodburn Stud became the birthplace of Kentucky's Thoroughbred industry and was the first to establish a systematic design method for horse breeding. Woodburn Farm was the home of the great stallion Lexington, the top stallion in the USA for sixteen years.
Although Lexington's success as a sire made Woodburn Stud near synonymous with Thoroughbreds, in fact during the mid to late 19th century Woodburn was where the Standardbred originated and the farm was ultimately best known for trotting horses and for the many great broodmares with thoroughbred maternal lines that are now among the top maternal families in Standardbred breeding including Miss Russell, the Queen Among Queens and the first mare to produce two sub 2:10 performers.
I wrote about the farm in my book Queen Among Queens and visited the farm several years ago and was treated to a tour of the original Alexander residence complete with portraits of Robert Alexander and many of his top horses. I was pleased to have the Governor accept a copy of my book and also have me install the old Globetrotter program on their office computer. They have since installed PMEquine and perhaps they have used it in the breeding of their two Kentucky Derby entrants. Both horses, Summer Is Tomorrow and Zandon, are, after all, TB pattern to the Nearco line and Zandon goes one step further with a DD pedigree.
There are 11 of the 20 entries that are TB to Nearco or to Native Dancer in all and six of these are also DD including the top two on the morning line Epicentre and Zandon. Cyberknife is also DD so 12 of the 20 have the special pedigree patterns that are prominent in standardbred success.
Zandon is the early favorite. He is from the second crop of the Airdrie Farm stallion Upstart who traces back to Bold Ruler, a grandson of Nearco. There are 10 Nearco Line entries with others through Turn To and Northern Dancer, also grandsons of Nearco. Zandon has what you would consider a light pedigree since he is the best one by far in three generations and from an unraced mare. His dam is by Creative Cause and second dam by Indian Charlie, both former Airdrie stallions. A half sister to the second dam, however, produced a winner of over $817K by Creative Cause so there is a pathway to success maternally in addition to his pedigree pattern.
Epicenter is by Not This Time, son of Giants Causeway, a sire that has produced some special runners but has yet to have a Derby winning descendent. His dam is by Candy Ride, another great sire that has no Kentucky Derby success to date coming closest with Gun Runner's third place finish. That horse is now at stud and has two of the top entries in this year's event. Epicenter is already a millionaire and that is more than the total production of the 20 other offspring of the first three dams so being the first Derby winner in those circumstances may prove too much to overcome despite his TB/DD pedigree.
The top rated c**t in the race based on speed and earnings in the family is Cyberknife with a 125 rating versus 121 for Epicenter and 111 for Zandon. He is DD and his second dam is a half sister to a $5 million winner for whatever that is worth. He is by Gun Runner so perhaps carries the burden of a Candy Ride curse. The other one by Gun Runner is Taiba and he is TB/DD which may give him more of a chance. His rating is 117.
The other two that are TB/DD are Charge It by Tapit at 111 and Ethereal Road with a rating of 98. The latter is an interesting horse in that his pedigree is very similar in pattern to Emblem Road who made over $10 million and Bella Fina a winner of over $1.6 million, both also by Quality Road, and could be the dark horse longshot in the race.
The ones that are TB include White Abarrio 124 who is the fastest on speed rating but by an unheralded sire in Race Day, the Japanese hope Crown Pride 120, Tiz The Bomb at 113, the Airdrie bred Summer Is Tomorrow with 111 who has been racing to date in UAE, Simplification 110 by a son of Giants Causeway, and Classic Causeway 103 by Giants Causeway,
My wish is for success for Brereton Jones and Airdrie Stud with his own Zandon or Airdrie bred Summer Is Tomorrow but watch out for longshot Ethereal Road.
