The SecDev Group

05/14/2024

For all its extraordinary promise to bolster productivity and innovation, has a dark side. For one, it poses existential-level threats (from non-alignment with human interests to triggering first use of WMD).

More immediately, AI is set to displace hundreds of millions of jobs, turbo-charge digital harms, scale-up cyber security threats, and accelerate copyright infringements. What’s more, an AI divide is growing between the Global North and South.

A few reflections here from Rob Muggah on what’s at stake in this quick talk for , The SecDev Group, Instituto Igarapé, and . It’s a bit heavy on the doom and gloom, but also explores the different conversion that’s underway about AI opportunity, including in Africa.

In English here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujInsGYKqrs

In Portuguese here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mqXsbbGbds

The threats posed by Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominated the global agenda in 2023 and will continue being a major concern in 2024. The co-founder OF the ...

02/09/2024

Defend the Digital Front Lines: Become a SecDev cyber defender!
Are you ready to dive into the heart of human rights and conflict as a cyber security first responder? This isn't just any job; it's a call to action for those with the courage to work on the front lines, protecting critical NGOs in high-risk zones. Your mission: build resilience, fend off cyber threats, and maintain digital safety during times of severe stress and conflict.

We need cyber humanitarians with the right mix of expertise, dedication, and a relentless determination to make a difference. As a SecDev SARTech, you're not just filling a position; you're answering a call to protect and serve in the digital arena.

Join the The SecDev Foundation initiative, where your skills will directly contribute to safeguarding high-risk independent media and civil society organizations across Eurasia. This is your chance to be part of an elite digital safety squad, providing assessments, hands-on assistance, and mentorship to those standing on the frontline of cybersecurity.

This pivotal role demands not only a sharp sense of mission and unwavering commitment but also fluency in Ukrainian and Russian. If you've got the integrity, judgment, and the drive to make an impact where it's needed most, we want you on our team.

https://secdev.bamboohr.com/careers/44

12/22/2023

Are you a capable manager with a passion for making a positive impact? The SecDev Foundation is seeking a Senior Program Manager for its CyberSTAR Digital Safety program. This groundbreaking program focuses on providing cyber security assistance to individuals and organizations facing risks in challenging environments. These include countries grappling with conflict or sliding into digital authoritarianism. Cyberstar adopts a "first aid" model, emphasizing the teaching of cyber security principles, offering a hotline for immediate assistance, and conducting comprehensive audits for organizations. Apply now for the opportunity to make The SecDev Foundation

(Revised 4 December 2023 -- Previous applicants are in assessment and need not reapply). Are you a capable programme manager who understands how digital risk can compromise the operations and safety of smaller Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) globally? Are you keen to make a difference in this spa...

06/29/2023

A year and a half has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine and the war grinds on with no clear end in sight. Wagner's aborted revolt against the Russian military establishment has weakened Putin's credibility and may strengthen Ukraine's hand, but decisive victory for either side remains elusive. Both sides seem intent on fighting before a lasting peace can be agreed.
Although virtually everyone around the world agrees that negotiations are essential to ending the Russian-Ukraine war, profound disagreements remain about when and how peace can be achieved. Both Russia and Ukraine are convinced they can win. Meanwhile, Western powers, China and multiple emerging powers, are unable to agree on a basic peace format.
At least part of the current impasse is because the situation on the ground is not, in the diplomatic vernacular, ripe for resolution. But there is another fundamental reason why the peace train has yet to leave the station: the way the conflict ends is increasingly viewed by many countries as decisive to shaping the future world order, either western or post-western.
SecDev's latest Flashnote explores how the Russian-Ukraine war is dividing the world into opposing camps. It traces how a flurry of countries, including Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and others are weighing in, a symptom of an increasingly multipolar world.


https://open.substack.com/pub/flashnote/p/off-the-rails?r=2b0v1b&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

05/26/2023

Is this how it ends? As we grapple with the 'polycrisis' of 2023, our focus is drawn to three critical risks - the potential for nuclear catastrophe, the disruptive effects of climate change, and the profound implications of AI breakthroughs. The interlinked nature of these threats underscores the need for immediate and cooperative responses, especially in the face of simmering geopolitical conflicts. Our latest Flashnote: https://flashnote.secdev.com/p/is-this-how-it-ends

05/26/2023

As we navigate the shifting landscape of commercial intelligence, SecDev is at the forefront of integrating AI-driven OSAINT – open-source AI intelligence analysis, that holds promise to transform risk assessment and opportunity identification. The rapid evolution of large-scale language models and generative AI is poised to enhance the precision and speed of data amalgamation, elevating the capacities of analysts, and facilitating rapid, informed decision-making. Yet, we approach this transformative power with considered caution, recognizing the need for ethical and operational guardrails in this new era of intelligence synthesis. Join us as we stride into this exciting frontier, harnessing the power of AI to democratize intelligence and redefine how public information is collected, while establishing safeguards to ensure the benefits of OSAINT do not overshadow its potential challenges. Read the latest from SecDev’s https://www.cigionline.org/articles/ai-is-poised-to-revolutionize-intelligence-and-risk-analysis/

Tasks previously deemed tedious and time-consuming by human analysts, such as pattern recognition in images, audio or video, can now be automated at a fraction of the cost.

05/16/2023

We are pleased to announce that Secdev has extended its platform onto Substack, providing our audience with a broader range of insightful content. Our Substack presence offers complimentary access to various resources, including our concise Flashnotes, in-depth white papers, and public research reports.

Browse our free publications and subscribe to premium content and assessments

05/16/2023

As the Chinese economy slows, its foreign aid policy, including development initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), could be impacted. This potential slowdown in Chinese development financing presents an unexpected opportunity for the US and EU-led initiatives, such as the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy. They can provide more transparent, accountable, and sustainable forms of assistance, focusing on both hard and soft infrastructure, while avoiding the debt and data traps associated with China's approach. By stepping up, liberal democracies can ensure that vulnerable nations are not left behind and that future development assistance positively impacts those who need it most. latest SecDev - now on Substack!

The global consequences of declining Chinese aid to the Global south

04/24/2023

One third of ’s critical mineral and wealth lies below the rainforest. These assets could help drive the global green transition, but also carry immense existential risks. One is the so-called “resource curse”. The other is how to unearth and refine them without razing forests and degrading biodiversity (ensuring locals benefit) and imperilling the global climate.

Consider that to achieve the climate goals in the 2015 , the world will need to quadruple—yes, quadruple—mineral production through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Surging demand will especially affect Latin America, which has 40 percent of global copper reserves as well as a large share of the world’s cobalt and nickel.

Just three countries— , , and —control two-thirds of the global supply of . The pressure to mine rare earths will grow as well, especially as , the world’s largest producer, moves to restrict exports and as other countries work to lessen their strategic dependence on Beijing.

How Brazil manages a vast expansion of its mining industry and handles the attendant environmental, social, and other negative consequences could therefore shape the rules and red lines of an expanding global mining sector for years to come. Some reflections from SecDev’s Robert Muggah in Foreign Policy this week.

Brazil’s mineral wealth could power the energy transition, but mining is a very dirty business.

04/22/2023

One third of ’s critical mineral and wealth lies below the rainforest. These assets bring the promise of wealth but also existential risks. One is the so-called “resource curse”. The other is how to unearth and refine them without razing forests and degrading biodiversity (ensuring locals benefit) and imperilling the global climate.

Consider that to achieve the climate goals in the 2015 , the world will need to quadruple—yes, quadruple—mineral production through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Surging demand will especially affect Latin America, which has 40 percent of global copper reserves as well as a large share of the world’s cobalt and nickel.

Just three countries— , , and —control two-thirds of the global supply of . The pressure to mine rare earths will grow as well, especially as , the world’s largest producer, moves to restrict exports and as other countries work to lessen their strategic dependence on Beijing.

How Brazil manages a vast expansion of its mining industry and handles the attendant environmental, social, and other negative consequences could therefore shape the rules and red lines of an expanding global mining sector for years to come. Some reflections from The SecDev Group’s Robert Muggah in Foreign Policy this weekend.

Brazil’s mineral wealth could power the energy transition, but mining is a very dirty business.

04/21/2023

’s blistering economic growth is slowing, with implications for foreign aid. Notwithstanding concerns about debt and data trap diplomacy, Chinese grants, loans and credit have generated tangible impacts on social and economic development in low and middle income countries, especially in Africa (according to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank).

With Chinese development assistance declining, OECD members have an opportunity to step up and provide greener, more accountable and transparent aid. The $600 billion -led Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment and the $329 billion Global Gateway are a start.

New article out with Devex, part of a new series with The SecDev Group examining our rapidly transforming geopolitics.

https://www.devex.com/news/opinion-as-chinese-aid-slows-down-the-whole-world-will-feel-the-pinch-105359/amp

The world has much at stake in China’s future: When the country’s growth rate rises by 1 percentage point, growth in all other countries increases by 0.3 percentage points. Diminished lending and aid from China will have a severe impact on vulnerable countries and beyond.

03/21/2023

Digital connectivity is amplifying the scale and speed of disinformation, misinformation, and hate speech, causing real-world consequences in war zones and beyond, where people depend on reliable information to survive. To reduce digital harms, all stakeholders need to work together to build awareness, education, and resilience. Flashnote: Texts, Trenches, and Telecom. https://youtu.be/4tj6en7XcQM - https://mailchi.mp/secdev/flashnotetexts-trenches-and-telecom