04/17/2018
PROFORMAS AND WHY THEY CAN BE MISLEADING
Tell me if this sounds familiar…you go online searching for investment properties and come across an amazing opportunity (or as it seems). You contact the listing agent and they tell you:
100% occupied (which is likely true), Return on Investment (ROI) is between 12-15% and building has had major capital repairs completed in the last 5 years (roof, plumbing, electrical, etc). Curiosity and excitement kicks in! You want to know more and anxious to pounce on the investment.
You tell your significant other and discuss the details. They are also curious and interested. A decision is made to put this under contract and you purchase the building. WARNING: There are other details which go into purchasing an investment such as financing, business structure, down payment, etc… Details on this is for another day.
6 Months after purchasing you notice the ROI is now between 5-7% and the occupancy percentage is dipping.
What happened? A once promising deal now not meeting expectations.
Ok, I am going to make a bold statement based on my experience: AN INVESTMENT WHICH SEEMS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IN 80% OF THE CASES IS.
To avoid soured expectations or disheartening experiences, use the following three steps when initially reviewing an investment:
1. Calculate 40% expenses regardless of the condition of the building
I make the assumption you will NOT be self-managing this property and will have a property manager on site. If there is one common item I see when looking at deals is inflated ROI’s. Self-managed properties have a significant reduction expenses. They collect rent on their own and do maintenance around the building as it comes down. Expenses in those cased can be between 10-20% (yes it is true!). Do yourself a favour and multiply 40% of the total gross revenue to get your expenses. Take your gross revenue less the expenses to get a more reasonable Net Operating Income figure
2. Take 10% Vacancy
I don’t care if the building has been 100% occupied for 2 years and running. Turnover happens. A tenant may leave due to job change, divorce, money woes, the list goes on. Play it safe and take vacancy into UNDER Consideration
3. Calculate mortgage using a higher interest rate and taking into consideration any prepayment penalties
In many proformas provided I have seen interest rates being as low as 3.5% and down payments being between 15-20%. Here is the reality. Depending on what kind of investment you are doing (local, international, vacation home, rental, etc) your rates and down payments can fluctuate tremendously. As a Canadian investor in the USA I currently average between 5-6% and down payments between 25-40% depending on the deal. Selling the investment may not be in your mind now but keep in mind that depending on your financing needs a prepayment penalty can be large. Be informed and know details about your loan inside and out!
If the ROI still looks attractive then move on. This is a starting point and by no means comprehensive detail on how to look at an investment and immediate make a decision to purchase. There is much more to analyze.
Make your investment a happy and smart decision…not one you will regret!