13/09/2023
The European Central Bank expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a tenth consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday, a source with direct knowledge of the discussion told Reuters on Tuesday.
The ECB begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday, with persistently high inflation and rising recession fears pulling policymakers in opposing directions and keeping market expectations equally divided between a pause and another 25-basis-point hike.
An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
The ECB's quarterly projections, set to be presented to its Governing Council on Wednesday, will put inflation north of 3% in 2024, the source said, confounding expectations for a small cut. The updated 2024 projection is well above the central bank's 2% target and will be higher than the 3% forecast in June. It is also above the 2.7% seen in a Reuters poll of economists.
The source said the rate decision was still a close call and formal proposals for the meeting have not yet been presented.
But the closely watched 2024 figure adds to the case for a rate hike as it appears to confirm fears that it could be harder to bring down inflation than earlier thought.
The ECB has lifted its deposit rate to 3.75% from minus 0.50 in a span of 14 months, the fastest pace of tightening on record, all in the hope that it would arrest runaway price growth.But both headline and underlying inflation remain above 5%, raising the risk that workers will start demanding bigger pay increases, especially because the labour market remains exceptionally tight.
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