16/05/2017
Exert of China-i President Sameh El-Shahat's speech at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, 15 May:
The Belt and Road Initiative Requires a New Model of Risk Management
“一带一路”需要风险管理新模式
Much has been said about the Belt and Road (一带一路) initiative, but one thing is for sure. It will herald a totally different approach to global security and development. For the first time, a developing country is proposing a purely development-based global initiative that will benefit both developing and developed countries. It will also be the first serious proposal to improve global security that is not based on military means or driven by motives of domination and intervention.
关于“一带一路”，已有很多讨论，但有一点是肯定的。它为营造全球安全环境、促进全球发展提供了一个完全不同的新思路、新方案。这是第一次由一个发展中国家倡议的，以促进发展为基石的全球倡议，它不仅惠及发展中国家，也造福于发达国家。同时，它也是世界上第一次不以军事手段，不以主导、干涉为目的来改善全球安全环境的重大倡议。
The success of the Belt and Road initiative hinges on a new approach to risk management. There will be new social and economic risks that will come from the closer interdependence of very different and often competing countries. As we enter a period of rising protectionism, violent nationalism, and populism, the Belt and Road’s peaceful message will meet resistance by short-termist politicians and activists.
为保障“一带一路”倡议的成功，我们需采用新的风险管理模式。因为情况非常不同的国家，甚至是相互竞争的国家会因一带一路而变得更紧密、更相互依存。但是随着“保护主义”、“激进民族主义”以及“民粹主义”的抬头，“一带一路”所传递的和平信息可能会在某些国家和地区受到某些短期功利主义和激进分子的抵制，进而产生新的社会和经济风险。
President Xi’s speech gave more details about implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. He also talked a lot about culture, he talked a lot about peoples’ mutual understanding. We at China-i believe this is very important, as the biggest risk that will be facing Belt and Road is social risk.
习主席在演讲中，对“一带一路”倡议的实施给出了很多细节，他还谈到了很多关于文化的传承和交流、民众的沟通和理解。我们华誉认为这非常重要，因为一带一路所面临的最大风险是社会风险。
Given the major role played by Chinese companies in spearheading the Belt and Road initiative, social risk is a particular risk at the early stages of the initiative. Chinese companies will face the greatest risks and China-i’s work of over a decade in this field shows that they are as yet unprepared for the risk challenges ahead. Ignorance or misunderstandings could damage the image of the whole blueprint and Chinese companies’ image could suffer if presented as agents of Chinese domination. Western and other states still have deep misunderstandings about Belt and Road. A casual glance at non-Chinese media this week will confirm this.
鉴于中国企业在“一带一路”倡议中发挥的重大作用，因此在一带一路发展早期，他们首当其冲将面临最大风险，而我们十年来在这一领域的工作显示，他们对未来的风险挑战尚未准备充分。对倡议的不理解或者误解可能会对整个发展蓝图的形象造成损害。将中国企业描绘成“中国主导世界的代理人”这种做法，使得中国企业形象受到影响。从本周海外媒体纷纷热议的报报道中，我们可以看出西方等某些国家对“一带一路”倡议仍存有很深的误解。
The idea of ignorance, and lack of understanding or misunderstanding, can create opposition to financially useful and viable projects. A very good example of this is Brexit. The European Union is a very good financial project for the UK, but the British people surprisingly rejected what seems like a prosperous position. They rejected this because British leaders did not take into account the social risk of the Britain opposition, which led to the British people rejecting a very good life in favour of lots of uncertainty and lots of instability.
无知、缺乏理解会导致误解和偏见，最终可能对经济发展非常重要、非常有益的项目进行抵抗。正如“英国脱欧”的例子：留在欧盟对英国经济发展来说，应该是一个非常不错的提议，可是令人惊讶的是，英国人拒绝了。原因正是英国的领导人没有考虑到英国的社会风险，错误地估计了民众反对的呼声。最后，英国不得不拒绝一个相对来说“很好的生活”，而处于现在这样一种充满了不稳定、不确定的状态。
Although the Belt and Road is very different proposition to the EU, the Brexit example shows if social risk reaches too high of a level, then people can still reject a project that is financially beneficial and good for development.
当然，欧盟和“一带一路”是两个完全不一样的议题，但英国脱欧的例子证明了：即使面对一个对经济社会发展有帮助、有益处的项目，如果没有对社会风险进行有效管控，当它超过某个程度时，人们还是有可能会拒绝、会抵制项目。
The opportunity we see for China going forward is by implementing better risk management mechanism in every single project. Our company of course has been involved in the idea of promoting good risk management and in identifying strategic risks. Strategic risks are of course the biggest risks to Belt and Road, and the main strategic risk we believe will be social risk.
我们认为中国继续向前发展，需要在一带一路项目上采用更完善的风险管理机制。我们公司一直在推行这样的理念——更好地识别战略风险，更好地开展风险管理。我们认为战略风险是一带一路倡议面临的最大风险，而战略风险中最主要的即是社会风险。
In the process of listing all the potential advantages and benefits that will accrue from this project, we must not let quantity blind us the importance of quality. In the same way, when talking about benefit and opportunity, we must never forget that the sister of opportunity is risk. After all, isn’t the Chinese character for crisis (危机/weiji) made of two characters, “Danger (危/wei)" in "dangerous (危险/weixian)”, "machine (机/ji)" in "opportunity (机会/jihui)."
当我们列出了所有因倡议而产生的潜在优势和好处时，切莫因数量而忽视了质量的重要性。同样，当我们谈及机会时，也千万不能忘记它的孪生姐妹——风险。汉字“危机”不正是由两部分组成的吗，“危”代表“危险”，“机”代表“机会”。
Under President Xi, China’s development has a “quality over quantity” approach to development and growth to ensure greater sustainability and happiness for the people of China on their path to greater development.
在习主席的领导下，中国的发展模式更注重质量发展，“以质取胜”，从而保障中国人民在发展道路上的可持续性以及获得感、幸福感。
We should apply this mentality to Belt and Road. It is big. Its countries already account for one third of global trade volume. Its numbers can only grow and its potential is simply mind-staggering. Something so big may be difficult to understand if its brand and message is not clear. May be that is why many people abroad know little about it and could therefore misunderstand it. That is why we should follow President Xi and take a quality over quantity approach.
这样的发展观同样适用于“一带一路”。一带一路是宏伟篇章，其沿线国家和地区贸易量已占全球三分之一，而这个数字还在不断增加，其潜力令人惊讶。如此庞大的计划，如果它的“品牌”和“信息”不清晰，的确不容易理解。也许这也是为什么很多海外民众对“一带一路”缺乏了解进而产生误解和偏见的原因了。因此我们更应跟随习主席，注重“质的发展”，“以质取胜”。
The best place to start I believe will be to focus on moral and cultural infrastructure of this project. This infrastructure is the命运共同体 (Community of Common Destiny). This is the core of the whole project and the DNA of its peaceful philosophy and Chinese heritage. Promoting命运共同体 (Community of Common Destiny) moral infrastructure to all the peoples along the Belt and Road is as important as promoting the physical infrastructure project. We have AIIB for finance, the命运共同体 (Community of Common Destiny) should be seen as Asian Moral and Intellectual Infrastructure Bank. To protect 一带一路 (Belt and Road) from social and other strategic risks, we should actively promote命运共同体 (Community of Common Destiny) as its heart and brand.
我相信将重点放在“道德和文化基础设施建设”将是一个不错的起点。这里所说的“基础设施”就是“命运共同体”理念，它是整个倡议的核心，是中国和平理念和文化传承的DNA。向一带一路沿线民众传播“命运共同体”理念这样的道德基础设施建设，和推动实际项目方面的基础设施建设同等重要。当提及项目融资时我们有亚投行AIIB，而“命运共同体”理念则应被视为“亚洲道德和智慧的银行”AMIIB（Asian Moral and Intellectual Infrastructure Bank）。为保护一带一路免于受到社会风险等战略风险的冲击和影响，我们应积极推动“命运共同体”理念，它是“一带一路”的核心和“品牌形象”。
There is a Chinese saying about people who are close: 唇齿相依 (as close as lips and teeth)！ That is how close China and its neighbours will be in Belt and Road. But this saying also applies to benefit and risk management. Without good risk management, the benefits to all are at risk. Put differently: 唇亡齿寒 (as close as lips and teeth).
当描述双方关系密切，相互依存时，汉语里有一个成语叫“唇齿相依”！中国和一带一路沿线国家的关系就像这个成语，这个成语同样适用于利益和风险管理。没有完善的风险管理，那利益也得不到保障，换句话说，唇亡齿寒。
Belt and Road will help bring the promise of the China Dream to the rest of the world，”让中国梦的潜力更加活力四射” (let the potential of the Chinese dream be more vibrant). We need to help the practical dream to take place, we must work hard to chase the baseless nightmares out of other people’s heads by adopting good risk management strategies on the ground. Good risk management will help Belt and Road 驶向更光明的未来 (head for a brighter future).
一带一路将中国梦带到全世界，“让中国梦的潜力更加活力四射”。大家需要一起努力来实现这个梦想，在实际行动中我们必须采用完善的风险管理战略，来消除人们脑海中对一带一路的误解、偏见，甚至“噩梦”。完善的风险管理将帮助一带一路“驶向更光明的未来”。
