17/04/2026
In the wake of early reports that a ceasefire has been agreed between Lebanon and Israel, it's worth pausing to looking back at the history of this small yet consequential nation. Lebanon's story is one of a delicate balance... tipped irreversibly on its side by the world around it.
The last official census in Lebanon took place in 1932, and found that 53% of the country's 875,252 inhabitants were Christian. Sunni Muslims made up 22%, Shia Muslims 20%, and Druze about 6%.
Thus when the country was granted independence in 1946, a "National Pact" was agreed upon that was designed to represent the interests of all groups and avoid sectarian violence.
This pact informally set in place an understanding that the Lebanese President would always be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Muslim, and a number of other less significant positions assigned to other minorities.
The system was fairly effective and in 1975, Lebanon was the only country in the Middle East, other than Israel, defined as a "Free Country" by international body Freedom House.
It had a booming tourism and banking industry, with Beirut known as the "Paris of the Middle East" for its historic buildings and boulevards.
Of course the problem with this precarious balance of power was that it was based on a demographic snapshot that was always going to be subject to change... and change it did.
But this isn't as simple as birth rate differences across the communities, Lebanon's most destabilising influence has been the influx of refugees from its neighbours.
The first wave occurred as early as 1948 when 100,000 Palestinians fled over the border as Lebanon joined Syria, Egypt, and Jordan in an attempted invasion of Israel.
Once the ceasefire was signed though, Israel refused to allow the Palestinians that had fled "behind enemy lines" to return, leaving them stranded in Lebanon indefinitely. Today it is estimated that as many as 470,000 Palestinians still live in Lebanon.
In 1970, Palestinian forces based in Jordan attempted to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy, leading to a violent conflict which ultimately resulted in the PLO being exiled from the country. Their decision to move to southern Lebanon would be the final destabilising straw.
The presence of thousands of Palestinian militants in the country triggered sectarian violence that would tear the country apart and level the once beautiful streets of Beirut. The ensuing civil war would drag in Syria, Egypt, and even the USA.
After the PLO launched attacks against Israeli civilians from Lebanon, Israel responded with a ground offensive into Lebanon in 1978 with the goal of wiping out the PLO.
It was in this environment that Hezbollah emerged in the early 1980s. Backed and funded by Iran, the group began as a Shia Islamist militia committed to resisting Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon, drawing support from a historically marginalised Shia population. Over time, Hezbollah evolved far beyond a guerrilla force, developing into a powerful political actor, a provider of social services, and, crucially, the most heavily armed non-state group in the country, or possibly even the world.
Its military wing has fought repeated conflicts with Israel, while its political arm now holds significant influence within Lebanonโs government, blurring the line between state and militia and further complicating Lebanonโs fragile balance of power.
The impact of the Syrian Civil War has further destabilise Lebanon, with over 1 million mainly Sunni Syrian refugees fleeing Assads brutal campaign against his own people. Most have not been able to return.
The instability has led to a mass exodus of any Lebanese with the means to leave, particularly from its Christian population. The economy has collapsed, and militants funded by Iran are now better armed than the national army.
Lebanon's story is a tragic one. A once beautiful country torn apart at the seems... unable to escape the reality of its neighbourhood.
