Semiconductor Business Intelligence

11/07/2024

While we must wait for the rest of the financials, TSMC's revenue is out of the bag. A new record confirms TSMC's strong position in the growing AI GPU space, which has yet to translate into meaningful operating profit growth for the manufacturing leader.
TSMC's share price growth is currently disconnected from revenue and operating growth. Rumours have it that price increases are pending on the leading-edge technologies and that customers have accepted this.
Read more about the status of the Semiconductor industry before the earnings season here: https://open.substack.com/pub/clausaasholm/p/will-semiconductor-earnings-live?r=3bbb4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

10/07/2024

The books are closed, and the Semiconductor earnings season is about to begin. Based on the stock market gains, investors expect strong AI results.
We understand that revenue is not the only metric for company valuation; however, revenue growth is key for free cash flow growth, which is more meaningful for valuations. Also, as the industry's long-term growth is only 8%, companies must fight for market share to justify the share growth.
While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear- the semiconductor supply chain is a time machine, offering a glimpse into the industry's future results.
You can read more here and follow our bloghttps://clausaasholm.substack.com/p/will-semiconductor-earnings-live?r=3bbb4

21/06/2024

Nvidia is undergoing a transformation from a device company to a systems company. The same cannot be said about the Semiconductor Accountants keeping track of market growth. Who counts all of Nvidia's revenue as GPU. Most of Nvidia's GPUs are not traded on the market and should not be counted at all. The memory content in Nvidias systems has already been counted once when the DRAM manufacturers sold it to Nvidia. This is just the beginning; AMD, Intel, Broadcom and Marvell will also transform into systems companies, ending the age of Semiconductor Accountants once and for all.

https://open.substack.com/pub/clausaasholm/p/the-light-that-burns-twice-as-bright?r=3bbb4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

20/06/2024

Is Blackwell a half-generational step?
In Nvidia presentations, you could get the impression that Blackwell is a more significant step forward than Hopper. While Blackwell can deliver more (ignoring FP precision) TFLOPS per $, our analysis suggests that it represents a more modest (in GPU terms) improvement. This might not be surprising as both technologies use the same 4nm node at TSMC. Moore's law may still have some life left, even for Nvidia. Even if Blackwell is a smaller step forward, it is still likely sufficient to keep ahead of the competition.
Read more on my Substack blog: https://open.substack.com/pub/clausaasholm/p/the-light-that-burns-twice-as-bright?r=3bbb4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

The rise and fall of the Nvidia H100 economy

15/06/2024

While I was calculating Nvidia's results for next quarter, this chart suddenly appeared in my visualiser. Before I saw this, I would have said Nvidia's stock price is insane, but now I am unsure. It is probably at the same level of sanity as it has been since 2020 (which also could be insane).
The deep Nvidia research I am finalising right now will be paid research, but I will reveal many interesting Nvidia insights for free in next week's post on my blog. If you are interested in what goes on under the Nvidia hood, make sure to subscribe to my blog here:
https://clausaasholm.substack.com/

03/06/2024

Nvidia's customers in Q2-2024. https://clausaasholm.substack.com/p/ncredible-nvidia

16/05/2024

Semiconductor companies sprayed with money invest less and buy fewer semiconductor tools. The only country buying more tools is the one the Chips Act is trying to prevent buying.
https://open.substack.com/pub/clausaasholm/p/tools-for-chips-and-dips?r=3bbb4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

11/04/2024

Lately, the semiconductor manufacturing industry has been sprayed with generous grants from the Chips Act. The money bucket is huge but not endless, and we are nearing the end of the mega grants.
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https://open.substack.com/pub/clausaasholm/p/a-billion-here-and-a-billion-there?r=3bbb4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

10/04/2024

Manufacturing is not Intel's only challenge. Customer Zero is also trying to find its way. Apart from the stability of CCG and DCG/DCAI, the frequent Business Unit reorganisations of the rest of Intel's business suggest that the product strategy is unclear. Soon, we will also see Altera back as a reporting unit. https://clausaasholm.substack.com/p/intels-mountain-to-climb?r=3bbb4

05/04/2024

Intel lost manufacturing process leadership years ago and is now paying the price. For IDM's and foundries, there is a direct and delayed relationship between process competitiveness and profits. This delay suggests that Intel will be in a financial mire until the 18A process has been in volume production for a while. Read more about Intels strategic situation. https://clausaasholm.substack.com/p/intels-mountain-to-climb?r=3bbb4

04/04/2024

Intel is used to be the dominant player in their market. Now the company is entering a new market already occupied by a formidable opponent. The pieces are set for a great battle. We are reviewing Intel's strategy and strategic situation in data and graphs.
https://open.substack.com/pub/clausaasholm/p/intels-mountain-to-climb?r=3bbb4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web