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27/11/2023

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Is managing uncertainty the same as risk management? If not, in what way does it differ?The capability to determine and ...
27/11/2023

Is managing uncertainty the same as risk management? If not, in what way does it differ?
The capability to determine and the ability to implement a strategy that is highly responsive to an unpredictable and potentially volatile environment The real risk is to be certain about anything.

Sandy Thomas, Foresight, UK Government Office for Science

There is maybe too much rigidity in the American system and therefore sometimes it misses the forest for the trees.

Ravi Kant, vice-chairman, Tata Motors

It is really about getting our executives to take a step back and think about the bigger picture – If we look around we’ll find the best companies having a very strong approach to cost reduction and shrinkage. Over 80% of companies undertook some form of cost reduction. But the most successful were measured and focused. They should not cut excessively. They should try to preserve staff and avoid fire sales of businesses blindly. more over cutting Opex without a very wise plan can really harm or in other words destroy any opportunity to come back or stand again. currently most of the companies are forming task force teams to mitigate the risk; mostly these individual are financial back ground so all there focus is only numbers and excel sheets; which is totally not the right approach for the current downturn. (don't you think that these are the same mentalities and paradigms that got us where we are now).

In today's uncertain world we need to have a different approach.

Three issues are worth exploring in more detail:

Ø flexibility;

Ø integration;

Ø decision-making.

Flexible planning

Through managing uncertainty, the need for plans that are adaptable and can be adapted quickly is one of the most important actions that need to be followed. Most of the organisations employ flexible planning and other few intend to do so in future.

As Mark Thomas of PA Consulting Group comments:

Most management tools are geared for a world which faces predictable risk and not too much uncertainty. It is quite a difficult challenge when it comes to managing genuine uncertainty and I think people do flip into a crisis mode in many cases.

The problem is that people manage a lot by experience …

For example, for 20 years you have managed through business cycles that have been traditional inventory cycles of booms and bust. You have a set of tools, for example budgets and forecasts and three-year plans, all of which have more or less served you well. When something like the current turbulence happens, it is difficult to throw those tools away and ask, “what are the tools I need for managing uncertainty?”

The temptation is to try and use those same tools in a different way. By way of illustration, I have talked to managers about their use of scenario planning. They have asked “does that mean I should be putting in plus or minus 10% into our budgets?” as if it is a risk management exercise. I responded that it is not about putting a number into your budgets, it is about thinking through major qualitative changes in the world.

For example, the potential collapse or fragmentation of the euro zone is not captured by a single number, 10% up or down. They really struggle with this and say “this is not helpful to me because I need a number to put into my planning process”. I think there are still a lot of people who are desperately trying to use the same tools for a purpose for which they are no longer fit.

It is difficult to learn lessons but harder still to unlearn things.

If you have a set of tools you have mastered over a period of years, it is psychologically difficult to say these are just inappropriate now and I need to be looking at these issues in new ways. It is psychologically very difficult to do this, even when it is not particularly hard to learn to use more appropriate tools for managing uncertainty.

To be continued

Next Episode we will discuss the four types of uncertainty; and whether Corporate should LEAD, ADAPT OR WAIT

27/11/2023

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