05/11/2025
The forecast that, 15 years later, is still right
📈 What’s the probability that a forecast made 15 years ago would have a deviation of less than one euro in its final projected month?
In October 2010, we prepared a long-term electricity price forecast with a 15-year horizon and monthly granularity.
It was commissioned by a French company seeking to invest in wind assets in Spain.
Today, 15 years later, reality has closed the cycle… and the numbers speak for themselves 👇
📅 First forecasted month: November 2010
📅 Last forecasted month: October 2025
👉 Actual price (October 2025): €75.75/MWh
👉 Forecasted price (October 2010): €76.63/MWh
👉 Difference: €0.88/MWh
And the most remarkable part:
Between 2005 and 2010, the explanatory variables included coal and fuel in a mix with almost no wind and no solar generation.
Even so, the forecast is extraordinarily accurate — both in trend and within the 80% confidence band.
For us, this is strong evidence of the robustness and reliability of the Alea methodology, developed and refined over 26 years to analyze and forecast energy markets.
📈 Going back to the initial question:
What’s the probability that a forecast made 15 years ago would have a deviation of less than one euro in its final projected month?
Almost none… unless it was made by AleaSoft ☺
Does anyone have a better forecast?
We’d love to hear your thoughts.
