20/04/2022
"US Stocks Gained in Broad-Based Rally".....
Stocks rose on Wednesday and a sell-off in Treasuries paused as investors evaluated the resilience of the global economic recovery to high inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and Covid lockdowns in China. European equity futures advanced, while Japan bolstered an Asia-Pacific share gauge. But China dropped after its banks held lending rates, disappointing investors looking for a cut to support an economy sapped by Covid curbs. Nasdaq 100 contracts retreated amid an after-hours slump in Netflix Inc. on poor subscriber numbers. That tempered some of the optimism from a rally in the S&P 500 Index ahead of the streaming giant’s results. Treasuries were steady but remain under longer-term pressure from hardening expectations of sharp Federal Reserve policy tightening. Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans said interest rates will probably exceed the neutral level in the campaign to damp price pressures.
The Dollar declined and the Yen revived after a prolonged slump. The Yen remains the weakest performer in the Group of 10 this year on the policy contrast with the US: the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to contain yields, underscoring its desire for loose monetary settings.
The fall-out from price pressures, Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s parlous economic outlook continue to shape sentiment. US 10-year real yields turned positive for the first time since 2020, reflecting tighter financial conditions that may hamper riskier investments such as equities.
“It takes time for the market to recognise and then respond to higher inflation,” Belita Ong, Chairman at Dalton Investments LLC, said on Bloomberg Radio. “My concern is that we benefitted from low interest rates during an era of peace, no wars, and during an era of very significant globalisation. Both of those trends are now reversing.” Elsewhere, Oil rebounded after posting the biggest slump in almost two weeks, with an industry report pointing to a drop in US stockpiles.
US Market Wrap
US stocks gained in a broad-based rally as investors weighed the resilience of the economy against prospects for aggressive policy action to curb inflation.
Treasury yields climbed across the curve, while Oil fell on demand concerns. The S&P 500 bounced back from the lowest close in more than a month, with all 11 main industry groups advancing except energy. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 2%, a threshold reached by the small-cap Russell 2000 Index. Yields on short-end Treasuries — the most sensitive to changes in interest rates — led the move higher.
Netflix Inc. tumbled in after-hours trading after the streaming service lost 200,000 customers in the first quarter and projected losing another 2 million customers in the current second quarter. Shares of streaming video companies such as Walt Disney Co. and Roku Inc. also retreated. International Business Machines Corp. gained in the post-market after reporting sales that topped estimates on strong demand for its hybrid-cloud offerings.
Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans said on Tuesday that interest rates will probably rise above the neutral level.
Investors, already betting on an almost half-point Federal Reserve rate increase next month, have been reassessing expectations after St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard said hikes of as much as 75 basis points shouldn’t be ruled out. The last increase of such magnitude was in 1994.
“Generally, most markets are focused on how fast the Fed and other Central Banks are going to go, and ultimately what rates are going to take a breather at,” Brian Nick, Chief Investment Strategist at Nuveen, said by phone. “Underlying all of this, though, is the fact that economic data still is quite solid. I would say it’s strong in the United States at this point.”
Government data on Tuesday showed US housing starts rose unexpectedly in March to the highest level since 2006. The earnings season continued on Tuesday, with Johnson & Johnson gaining after reporting first-quarter earnings that beat estimates and raising its dividend. The advance comes despite the drugmaker cutting its annual profit forecast and suspending guidance for Covid-19 vaccine sales. So far, with just 48 companies in the S&P 500 reporting results as of the close of trading on Tuesday, 79% posted positive surprises, data compiled by Bloomberg show. On Monday, Bank of America Corp. joined a string of earnings beats by big lenders.
“The US first-quarter earnings season, which continues this week, looks set to be positive, and we forecast earnings per share growth of 10% for 2022 overall and 7% for 2023,” said Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Against this backdrop, investors should also seek long-term value in stocks. Periods of heightened market volatility and uncertainty can often lead to attractive longer-term entry points in areas of structural growth.”
Other earnings related stories
• Medical-device stocks surge the most since 2020 after J&J results
• Travellers falls the most in almost two years on underwriting miss
• Peak inflation poised to rewrite stocks playbook: earnings watch
Oil retreated, snapping a four-day rally, as traders weighed the precarious demand outlook. Copper rose with other base metals as disruptions at mines in Peru added to worries about tight supplies at a time when inventories are at alarmingly low levels. Disruptions to supply chains from China’s lockdowns and to commodity flows from the war in Ukraine have kept pressure on Central Banks to rein in runaway prices at a time when global growth is tipped to slow. The International Monetary Fund slashed its world growth forecast by the most since the early months of the pandemic, and projected even faster inflation.
Russia has launched what Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov hailed as a second phase of the war in Ukraine, and early indications are it could go better for Russia than the first.
What to watch this week:
• Earnings include American Express, China Telecom, IBM, Netflix, Tesla
• EIA Crude Oil inventory report, Wednesday
• China loan prime rates, Wednesday
• Federal Reserve Beige Book, Wednesday
• French presidential election debate, Wednesday
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, due to speak, Wednesday
• Eurozone CPI, US initial jobless claims, Thursday
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde discuss global economy at IMF event, Thursday
• Manufacturing PMIs: Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, Friday
• Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey to speak, Friday
Source Sanlam Wealth