09/04/2026
Energy prices fell sharply over the past day or two, and a lot of businesses will have seen the headlines and assumed the market has turned a corner.
It hasn't, at least not yet.
The drop was driven by ceasefire optimism and a warm weather spell that softened demand. Both are temporary factors. Today the market is already firming back up, even though the UK gas system opened with more supply than needed; which is normally a condition that keeps prices soft.
The fact that prices are rising anyway tells you something important. The underlying supply risks haven't gone away. Norwegian gas flows have been cut by planned maintenance. Nuclear power plants remain offline. The weather forecast has shifted cooler again. Oil prices bounced back intraday when Middle East tensions resurfaced.
For businesses with energy contracts coming up for renewal, the question isn't whether prices fell. It's whether the reasons they rose in the first place have actually been resolved.
They haven't.
If your contract is renewing soon, now might still be a reasonable window to act. If your renewal is further away, treating today's prices as the new normal carries real risk.
Worth a conversation if you're not sure where you stand.